170 Optimal coding and compression
Example 9.3: Two-event source; the roulette game
We analyze the roulette game, as inspired by previous work,
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but which is further
developed here. This game originated in France in the seventeenth century, and was
later imported to America with minor modifications, hence, the alternative expressions
of French wheel or American wheel. To recall, the principle of the roulette is to make
various types of bets on the ball landing at random in one of 36 spots, numbered from
1 to 36, of the rotating wheel. If the ball stops on the right spot number, the gain is
36 times the amount that was bet. To increase the odds on winning anything, bets can
also be made on one, two, or four numbers at once, but this reduces the gain in the
same proportion. To increase the variety of betting possibilities further, the wheel spots
are also divided into families: (a) numbers 1–18 and 18–36, (b) odd and even numbers,
(c) red or black, and (d) numbers 1–12, 13–24, and 25–36.
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A key feature of the roulette,
which is not friendly to the players, is the existence of an extra green number, called 0 in
the French wheel. The American wheel also has this number 0 plus a second one, called
00. When the ball lands on either 0 or 00, all bet proceeds go directly to the “bank.” It
is easy to establish that the odds on winning in the roulette game are relatively low, no
matter how hard one may try with any playing strategy.
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Here, we shall simplify the game by assuming that the gambling exclusively concerns
a single number selected from 1 to 36. The corresponding probability of winning is
p (win) = p (no 0 or 00) ×p (number selected) =(1 −2/38) ×(1/36) =1/38 =0.0263,
and the probability of losing is p (lose) = 1 − p (win).
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This is a two-event source
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See B. Osgood, Mathematics of the Information Age (2004), p. 64, at www-ee.stanford.edu/∼osgood/
Sophomore%20College/Math%20of%20Info.htm.
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See interactive example, while safely taking bets with “free money” at (for instance) www.mondo-
casinos.com/gratuit/roulette/index.php (note: this reference is for study purposes and does not constitute
in any way a recommendation of gambling).
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If the roulette outcome is strictly random (can one always be sure of this?), the odds on the bank to pocket
all the bets with the 0 or 00 outcomes are 1/37 = 2.7% (French) and 2/38 = 5.4% (American). For the
individual player, the odds on winning any single-number bet are (1 −1/37)/36 =1/36 =2.7% (French) and
(1 −2/38)/36 =1/38 =2.6%. This means that (with respect to this player) the bank wins with probabilities
97.3% (French) and 97.4% (American). The odds on winning are obviously greater with the other bets
(a)–(c), namely (1 − 1/37)/2 = 48.6% (French) and (1 − 2/38)/2 = 47.3% (American) for (a)–(c) and
(1 − 1/37)/3 = 32.4% (French) and (1 − 2/38)/3 = 31.5% (American) for (d), but we note that they are
lower than 50% (a)–(c) or 33% (d), which, on average, is always in favor of the bank.
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We note that in the real game, the odds on winning are less than 1/36, which makes the player’s situation
“unfair.” It is possible to play with a high probability of making zero gains, but this comes with a low
probability of making maximal loss. Indeed, if we place one token on each of the 36 numbers, two events
can happen:
(a) One of the 1–36 numbers comes out: we win 36 tokens, which is the exact amount we bet, and the net
gain is zero; this has a high probability of 36/38 = 94.75 % < 100%.
(b) The 0 or 00 comes out, the bank wins the 36 tokens (our loss is maximum); this has a low probability
of 2/38 = 5.25% > 0%.
Similar conclusions apply when tokens are placed in equal numbers in the “odd/even,” “red/black,” or
“1–12, 13–24, 25–36” fields. The first lesson learnt is that even the least risky gambling options, which
have zero gain, most likely come with a small chance of maximal loss. Even in this extreme gambling
option, the game definitely remains favorable to the bank! Consider now the odds of winning if one plays
the same number 36 times in a row. The probability to lose all games is (1 −1/38)
36
= 38.3%, so there