8. (a) A (higher fixed cost); (b) C (more cyclical
revenues).
9. Certainty equivalent; CEQ
t
/[(1 r
f
)
t
]; less than; r
f
(r
m
r
f
); declines at a constant rate.
10. a.
.
b. CEQ
1
/1.05 110/1.10, CEQ
1
$105; CEQ
2
/
1.05
2
121/1.10
2
, CEQ
2
$110.25.
c. Ratio
1
105/110 .95; Ratio
2
110.25/121 .91.
Chapter 10
1. a. Analysis of how project profitability and NPV
change if different assumptions are made about
sales, cost, and other key variables.
b. Project NPV is recalculated by changing several
inputs to new, but consistent values.
c. Determines the level of future sales at which
project profitability or NPV equals zero.
d. An extension of sensitivity analysis which ex-
plores all possible outcomes and weights each
by its probability.
e. A graphical technique for displaying possible
future events and decisions taken in response to
those events.
f. Option to modify a project at a future date.
g. The additional present value created by the op-
tion to bail out of a project, and recover part of
the initial investment, if the project performs
poorly.
h. The additional present value created by the op-
tion to invest more and expand output, if a proj-
ect performs well.
2. (a) False; (b) true; (c) true; (d) true; (e) true;
(f) false.
3. It shows how the project would fare under consis-
tent combinations of input assumptions. Sensitiv-
ity analysis changes only one input at a time.
4. Monte Carlo helps reveal what can go wrong (or
right) with a project. It helps the manager to obtain
an accurate forecast of expected cash flows. It also
helps in assessing project risk and determining the
appropriate discount rate.
5. a. Describe how project cash flow depends on the
underlying variables.
b. Specify probability distributions for forecast er-
rors for these cash flows.
c. Draw from the probability distributions to sim-
ulate the cash flows.
110
1.10
121
1.10
2
$ˇ 200
PV
110
1 r
f
1r
m
r
f
2
121
31 r
f
1r
m
r
f
24
2
6. Option to expand; option to abandon; option to
postpone investment; production options.
7. (a) True; (b) true; (c) false; (d) false.
8. If prices of raw materials may change (e.g., price of oil
relative to gas), the firm may be able to switch between
them. Similarly, if consumer tastes change, the firm
may be able to change output quickly and cheaply.
Chapter 11
1. Your best estimate is $1,000 per acre, the actual
market value. Why do a discounted-cash-flow
analysis to estimate market value when you can
observe it directly?
2. (a) False; (b) true; (c) true; (d) false.
3. $15
4. Product prices tend to equilibrium levels at which
efficient producers see capacity expansion as zero-
NPV. Calculating NPV from the point of view of a
European competitor allowed estimation of this
equilibrium price.
5. First consider whether renting the building and
opening the Taco Palace is positive NPV. Then con-
sider whether to buy (instead of renting) based on
your optimistic view of local real estate.
6. The present value of the future price of gold is
equal to today’s price. Just multiply production
volume by today’s gold price.
7. (a) 160/1.05 $152.4 million; (b) The expected
rate of return is r
f
(r
m
r
f
) .05 1.2(.12
.05) .134, or 13.4%. The expected price is 1,524
1.134 1,728. The certainty equivalent price
is 1,600.
8. The second-hand market value of older planes falls
by enough to make up for their higher fuel con-
sumption. Also, the older planes are used on routes
where fuel efficiency is relatively less important.
9. b and d are clear lessons. c can be true: reduction in
profits from an existing project is a valid concern.
But if competitor’s new products would harm ex-
isting projects in any case, there is no reason to hold
back on your new product. a is wrong: growth or
high-tech products do not necessarily mean posi-
tive NPV. e is wrong: the book value of a plant does
not show the opportunity cost of using it.
Chapter 12
1. (a) False; (b) true; (c) true; (d) false; (e) true (e.g.,
marketing programs and training); (f) false.
2. a. Can lead to investment in negative-NPV projects.
b. Confuses the relative NPVs of projects proposed
by different business units.
1022 APPENDIX B Answers to Quizzes