Amaro A., Reed D., Soares P. (editors) Modelling Forest Systems

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146 G. Deckmyn et al.

Quercus petraea, 25% of total area). The coniferous species include Corsican black

pine and are dominated by Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris, 24% of total area). For this

study we used four forest types (i.e. deciduous (<20% coniferous), mixed deciduous

(20–50% coniferous), mixed coniferous (20–50% deciduous) and coniferous (<20%

deciduous)) and three soil types (i.e. A, loam; L, sandy loam; S, sand). All soils are

well drained and no groundwater table is within reach of the roots. Since many

patches are more or less even aged we used seven age classes: six even-aged classes

ranging from 0 to 150 years and one class of uneven-aged patches. Each patch was

modelled as a mixed patch reﬂecting the overall composition of the mentioned tree

species. The simulations were based on the available stand inventory data (density,

standing biomass, yield and age distribution).

Management

The current management of Meerdaalwoud is not homogeneous over the entire

for

est. Current silvicultural practice is mainly related to the species (deciduous vs.

coniferous), but also to patch productivity. Furthermore, 178.6 ha (covering differ-

ent patches of species and age composition) are set aside as strict forest reserves (no

longer under active management, referred to as unmanaged in the Discussion). In

the model simulations, differences in management due to patch productivity were

ignored. Differences in modelled management consisted of the differences between

deciduous patches (plant density 5000 trees/ha, thinning from age 40 years onward

every 10 years, and clearfelling at year 150) and coniferous patches (plant density

5000 trees/ha, thinning from age 20 years onward every 10 years and felling at year

100), and the difference between managed (1016 ha) and unmanaged (178.6 ha)

patches.

Model description

SECRETS

The model, termed SECRETS (Stand to Ecosystem CaRbon and EvapoTranspiration

Simulator) is a modular, process-based model (Sampson and Ceulemans, 2000).

SECRETS incorporates different modules and submodels based on several well-known

models:

● light penetration: sun–shade model (De Pury and Farquhar, 1997);

● photosynthesis: (Farquhar et al., 1980);

● surface and soil litter, C and nitrogen (N) pools: grassland dynamics (Thornley,

1998);

● carbon storage and partitioning: Frankfurt Biosphere Model (Lüdeke et al.

1994) and adaptations (Sampson and Ceulemans, 2000); and

● maintenance respiration: biomass (McMurtrie and Landsberg, 1992).

Unlike the individual submodels above,

SECRETS can model multiple patches of

forest with different species composition and vegetation in over-, sub- and under-

storey.

SECRETS has been used and parameterized to simulate a mixed

coniferous–deciduous forest (pine, oak, beech) in the Campine region, about 70 km

from Meerdaalwoud (Sampson et al., 2001).

A set of weather data including hourly values of irradiation, rainfall and

humidity

, day- and night-time temperatures was created using a weather generator

and based on a data set from a meteorological tower in the coniferous–deciduous

forest in the Campine region (Rasse et al., 2001).

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147 Modelling Carbon Sequestration Using SECRETS

Although different sets of weather data may give different results in tree

growth, with the large time and spatial scale used in this study, differences between

different sets of weather data were very small (<2%) and will be ignored.

To simulate global climatic change conditions, the data set from the European

oject

ECOCRAFT was used (1999) which gives predicted monthly changes in temper-

ature, humidity and rainfall in 2100 for different latitudes (Table 13.2). A CO

level

of 700 ppm was used in these simulations. The simulations were run for the future

climate, not for a gradual transition from current to future climate.

Model simulations were run for 150 years, starting from the current situa-

tion in age distribution and standing stock (fr

om stand inventory data).

Although the model yields hourly values of photosynthesis and respiration, as

well as daily values for forest growth, only yearly (annual) values were used for

this application.

GORCAM

The spreadsheet model GORCAM (Schlamadinger et al., 1997) calculates the total car-

bon balance of different land use scenarios. The model accounts for the carbon in the

ecosystem (soil and living biomass) and in the products (from short-lived pools in

paper up to long-lived pools in durable wood for furniture or window frames), the

fossil fuel displacement when the biomass yield is used for producing bioenergy

and also the fossil fuels used for stand tending and harvesting operations.

A harvested pine tree delivers relatively more stemwood than either oak or

beech but only part of it is useful for constr

uction timber. Oak and beech trees con-

tain relatively less stemwood but can be almost entirely used by the furniture

industry. As a consequence, a ﬁnal cut of all three species leads to approximately

the same allocation of products: 30% in long-lived products, 30% in medium-lived

products, 18% in short-lived products and 22% staying in the forest. For this study,

long-lived wood products (furniture and construction materials) were assumed to

last for 40 years (half-life at 20 years) in the case of broadleaved trees and 30 years

in the case of pine; medium-lived wood products (particle board) for 10 years;

while for short-lived products (paper and fuelwood from thinnings and part of the

ﬁnal harvest) a life span of 1 year (half-life of 6 months) was assumed. The fuel-

wood was assumed to be used in home heating systems, where it replaced fossil

fuels. Finally, the fossil fuel consumption caused by forest management, harvesting

and log transportation was subtracted from the ﬁnal sequestration balance. Instead

of using existing yield tables as an input, we ﬁtted the output of the

SECRETS model

as input for the sequestration calculations. The advantage of this serial connection

of models was that it allows climate change scenarios to be taken into account in

GORCAM.

Table 13.2. Predicted changes in minimum and maximum air temperature (°C) and in precipitation (%)

and humidity (%) under global climate change conditions for Belgium. Data from the European ECOCRAFT

project (ﬁnal report 1999).

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

max

1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 1 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3

min

1.4 1.4 1.2 1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.66 1.4 1.3 1.3

Precipitation 7 8 5 3 2 0 7 8 3 5 8 7

Humidity 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 9 11 11

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148 G. Deckmyn et al.

Data

Current and future C content

The simulated biomass of the mixed forest (on an area basis) as a function of time,

and for the dif

ferent tree compartments (roots and above-ground woody parts) is

presented in Fig. 13.1 (time zero in Fig. 13.1 corresponds to the present situation of

the forest). About 20% of the living biomass is found in the roots of the trees, which

is similar to values found in most studies on deciduous European forests (Cannell

and Dewar, 1994). The simulated overall biomass in the forest is 244.4 t/ha (of

which half is carbon), which is comparable to values from the literature (Liski et al.,

2000). The predicted biomass in 150 years time is only slightly higher (249.7 t/ha)

than the current biomass, although pine is being replaced by beech and oak. This

might seem contradictory to many reports that suggest that using species with a

longer rotation period will increase standing stock (Thornley and Cannell, 2000).

Indeed, in our simulations of the individual species, average standing stock of pine

is lower than for oak or beech, as expected.

Replacing pine with hardwoods increases standing biomass, and thus carbon

stock in the long r

un (150 years). However, this effect is partly neutralized by the fact

that, in the current age-class distribution, old stands are over-represented, which

means that the future will bring more young patches with lower standing. Also, oak

and beech have a lower growth rate during the early years, so replacing pine results

in a decrease in standing stock over the ﬁrst 80 years, followed by an increase.

The current soil carbon content is 175.4 t/ha and the simulation runs indicate

an incr

ease to 193 t/ha in the managed area and 237 t/ha in the forest reserves.

Although Meerdaalwoud is an ancient woodland, many patches have been dis-

turbed in the past 200 years. It is therefore not surprising that the soil carbon content

300

250

200

Beech wood

150

Biomass (t/ha)

Oak wood

Pine wood

100

Beech root

Oak root

Pine root

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Years

Fig. 13.1. Ev

olution of simulated standing biomass (t/ha) of Scots pine, oak and beech in the mixed

coniferous–deciduous Meerdaalwoud (Belgium) over the next 150 years (present = year 0). Biomasses of

both roots and above-ground woody parts (stems + branches) are presented.

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149 Modelling Carbon Sequestration Using SECRETS

has not reached steady state. Furthermore, due to atmospheric deposition, there is

an important inﬂux of N in the system (Neirynck et al., 2001) which can increase the

C-sequestering capacity of the soil (McMurtrie et al., 2001). Therefore,

Meerdaalwoud is predicted to be a moderate sink for carbon (0.040 t/ha/year) for

the future 150 years even when the C sequestration in harvested wood and fossil

fuel substitution is ignored, and assuming no climatic changes.

Harvest yield

The current simulated yield of the forest is 5.9 t/ha/year dry biomass (or 2.9 t

C/ha/year

, see Table 13.3) of which most is deciduous (4.36 t/ha/year or 5.8

/ha/year), and the rest is coniferous (1.54 t/ha/year or 3.1 m

/ha/year, see Fig.

13.2); this compares well with the actual harvested wood of previous years (i.e.

7.7–8.9 m

/ha/year).

Pine yield is slightly higher than beech or oak yield over the total rotation period

(150 years). Since pine thinning starts at a younger age, the economic constraints seem

to favour pine. However

, beech and oak yield is not much lower in the long run (Fig.

13.3), and the yield is of a higher quality and commands much higher prices per unit

volume. Although the wood of oak is much more durable than that of pine or beech,

this does not necessarily lead to higher sequestration in the products because of the

lower stemwood allocation. By replacing pine with beech and oak, overall yield of

Meerdaalwoud will be reduced by 10% (Table 13.3). In terms of wood volume the

decrease is much larger (because pine has a lower density; Jansen et al., 1996). C seques-

tration in products, however, increases slightly, not because of the more durable charac-

ter of oak or beech timber, but because of changes in the age-class structure. Total

sequestration increases signiﬁcantly, especially when substitution of fuelwood for fossil

fuels is taken into account. These results conﬁrm previous studies indicating the impor-

tance of including wood products in total C sequestration (Schlamadinger et al., 1997).

C sequestration

Deﬁning C sequestration as the total C in the ecosystem, and additional C sequestra-

tion as an incr

ease in sequestration (Ingram and Fernandes, 2001), additional

Table 13.3. Current and future (150 years) carbon content of soil, living trees, wood products (with long

and short life time), C in fossil fuels displaced (by use of fuelwood for energy) and used (for management

and harvesting) and additional sequestration in a mixed forest (Meerdaalwoud). Simulated data (SECRETS

and GORCAM) for the managed area and the forest reserve under unchanging conditions and for the

managed area under global climate change conditions are given.

Wood Fossil

production fuels Additional

Soil C Trees Yield Short Long Displ. Used sequestration

(t C/ha) (t C/ha) (t C/ha) (t C/ha) (t C/ha) (t C/ha) (t C/ha) (t C/ha/year)

Current

Managed 175.4 122.2 2.9 24.5 8.7 0 0

Reserve 223 166.6 0 0 0 0 0

Future

Managed 193 124.9 2.6 26.5 12.2 26.8 3.98 0.330

Reserve 237 192.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.266

Global change 212 136.5 2.8 29.8 16.1 56.2 7.62 0.478

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150 G. Deckmyn et al.

Biomass (t/ha/year)

Pine thinning

Pine harvest

Oak thinning

Oak harvest

Beech thinning

Beech harvest

1 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Years

Fig. 13.2. Simulated harv

est biomass (t biomass/ha/year) of Scots pine, beech and oak removed through

thinning or harvest from Meerdaalwoud over the next 150 years (present = year 0).

400

350

300

Biomass (t/ha)

250

200

Beech wood

150

Beech yield

100

Oak wood

Oak yield

Pine wood

Pine yield

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Years

Fig. 13.3. Ev

olution of simulated biomass of Scots pine, beech and oak stands in Meerdaalwoud (Belgium)

over time after planting (= year 0) on loamy soil. Both standing woody stock (stems + branches) and

harvested yearly yield are presented.

C sequestration of a mature, existing forest is always quite low because only

changes in C pools are used and, from this positive contribution to C sequestration,

the C used for managing and harvesting the ecosystem is subtracted. Although the

Meerdaalwoud has quite a high yield, and some of this yield is immobilized in

wood products, eventually all wood products decay. Assuming that the yield is rela-

tively constant then the amount of C in wood products will not increase either, and

additional C sequestration remains low. For the managed area of Meerdaalwoud,

the additional sequestration over the coming 150 years is predicted to be 0.330

t/ha/year and roughly half of this amount is due to fossil fuel displacement (fossil

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151 Modelling Carbon Sequestration Using SECRETS

fuels that have not been used because energy was won from burning wood; Table

13.3). These results conﬁrm previous studies, indicating the importance of including

wood products and fossil fuel displacement in total C sequestration (Schlamadinger

et al., 1997). Furthermore, the use of even a small part of the yield as fuelwood has

an important effect on C sequestration.

Of course, eventually, continuously removing wood from forests should reduce

soil fertility

, but with the current high nitrogen deposition this is not an issue in

Belgium.

Patch effects

The differences between the different forest patches are quite large. In the patches

with a mor

e sandy soil, tree growth is less for all species (Fig. 13.4). However, pine is

less affected than beech, and the difference in yield between beech and pine on

sandy soils is considerably enhanced. Pine had been planted on the sandy patches

because it grows better on sandy soils. When comparing the species, it is obvious

that pine growth is rapid in the early years but soon stabilizes. Growth of beech is

slow in young stands and higher in older stands (Fig. 13.3). Oak growth is interme-

diate in young stands but never reaches high values. The higher growth rate of

beech compared with oak is not related to higher photosynthetic rates (model inputs

for maximum rate of electron transport (J

max

) and maximal carboxylation velocity

(Vc

max

) of beech are lower (Medlyn et al., 1999)), but to a higher light absorption by

the canopy due to the higher allocation of biomass to leaves resulting in higher leaf

area index (compared with oak). The simulated growth curves compared well with

the available growth tables of the three forest species (results not shown; see Jansen

et al., 1996). However, because

SECRETS uses varying weather inputs, the simulated

growth curves are generally less smooth than average growth curves, and important

reductions in growth can occur (Fig. 13.3).

350

300

250

200

Biomass (t/ha)

150

Beech wood

Beech yield

100

Oak wood

Oak yield

Pine wood

Pine yield

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Years

Fig. 13.4. Ev

olution of simulated biomass of Scots pine, beech and oak stands in Meerdaalwoud (Belgium)

over time since the present (= year 0) on sandy soil. Both standing woody stock (stems + branches) and

harvested yield are presented.

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152 G. Deckmyn et al.

Reserves

The forest reserves are mainly important for conservational and biodiversity goals.

Above-gr

ound and total biomass are considerably higher than in the managed forest

patches (total biomass is 258.7 vs. 332.2 t/ha) and are predicted to increase further

(to 384.9 t/ha) over the next 150 years. Soil C content is predicted to increase slightly

from 223 to 237 t/ha. Forest reserve areas will continue to be moderate C sinks over

the coming years (Table 13.3). However, since there is no harvested yield, additional

C sequestration is lower than in the managed forest patches (0.266 t/ha/year).

Productivity is very low, since reserves evolve to an equilibrium where no carbon is

gained or lost. The present model results suggest, however, that this equilibrium has

not yet been reached. Several studies have shown European forests to be C sinks

(Liski et al., 2000), which is attributed to increasing standing stock, due to land-use

and management changes, but also to global climate change effects and nitrogen

deposition. The increase in winter temperature has been shown to prolong the

growing phase, while increased CO

has enhanced growth (see below). Possibly

even old forests can function as carbon sinks (total carbon storage in the ecosystem

increases; see Carey et al., 2001). However, other studies show contradictory results

and proclaim boreal forests currently to be carbon sources (because total carbon in

the ecosystem is decreasing; see Wang and Polglase, 1995).

Global change effects

Many studies concerning the effects of global climate change on trees and forests

have been performed (Norby et al.

, 1999). Although most experiments clearly show

a growth stimulation on young trees (Gielen and Ceulemans, 2001), it is often sug-

gested that the effects will be less pronounced on older trees (Luo et al., 1999). In

some cases, acclimation of photosynthesis reduces the effect of global climate

change (Medlyn et al., 1999). In other cases, forest growth is limited by N or phos-

phorus (P) (Oren et al., 2001). The effect of global climate change on a forest can only

be predicted by extrapolating results from small and short-term experiments to a

larger scale and longer term. The ability of models for such large-scale predictions is

dependent on the level of sophistication and scaling-up potential of the model,

which can vary widely (e.g. is acclimation included? is there a maximal tree bio-

mass? is respiration affected? is bud-burst simulated? etc.). This explains some of

the contradictory results from using different models (Wang and Polglase, 1995;

Rasse et al., 2001).

SECRETS simulates temperature effects in detail, i.e. bud-burst, soil respiration,

water use, etc. are all included and inﬂuenced by temperature. The effect of CO

limited to the effect on stomatal resistance and on the stimulation of photosynthesis.

The result on the growth curves of the individual species (data not shown) com-

pares well with the existing literature (Gielen and Ceulemans, 2001) in that growth

is stimulated primarily during the early years. In older trees, the effect becomes

marginal due to various mechanisms (acclimation is not speciﬁcally modelled, but

plant competition increases as trees grow, and growth becomes light, nutrient

and/or water limited). The overall effect of global climatic changes on

Meerdaalwoud shows an 8% increase in biomass yield (from 5.3 to 5.7 t/ha/year;

Table 13.3) and in standing stock (from 249 to 273 t/ha). Under global climate

change conditions, the simulations predict that Meerdaalwoud will continue to be

an important sink for C (0.478 t/ha/year; Table 13.2). There is no indication of N or

P limitation on forest growth in Meerdaalwoud (N input is high and exceeds

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153 Modelling Carbon Sequestration Using SECRETS

demands; see Neirynck et al., 2001). As yet, too little is known about soil processes to

accurately predict the interaction of global change with soil processes, although this

is probably of key importance in the global climate change issue (McMurtrie et al.,

2001).

Conclusions

Forests (including soils) contain, worldwide, 1150 Pg C, roughly 1.5 times the total

amount of carbon in the atmosphere (Liski et al., 2000). Therefore, changes in

C sequestration in forests due to human land use or global climate change can be of

vital importance in the total carbon cycle. In this study we showed that changes in

species (oak and beech versus pine) increased the standing stock and thus C seques-

tration, although C in durable wood did not increase. Results from the

GORCAM

model indicated that using part of the harvest as fuelwood to substitute for fossil

fuels could double additional C sequestration. The model simulations further sug-

gest that conversion of managed forest to forest reserve increases standing stock, but

decreases total C sequestration (other goals such as biodiversity are positively

affected). Due to global warming and increasing CO

, the reserves will remain an

important sink for carbon over the coming 150 years. For the managed forest, global

change increases total C sequestration from 0.330 to 0.478 t/ha/year. This study

clearly illustrates the usefulness of process-based growth models in combination

with accounting models for calculating C sequestration of heterogeneous and multi-

species forest ecosystems.

Acknowledgements

This study was ﬁnancially supported by the Flemish Minister for Scientiﬁc and

Technological Innovation (Brussels, Belgium) as project no. PBO98/41-12/16. The

authors especially thank Bernhard Schlamadinger from Joanneum Research in Graz,

Austria, for offering to work with

GORCAM. The authors also acknowledge Ellen

Moons (K.U. Leuven Centre for Economic Studies) for useful discussions, and the

Forest Administration of the Flemish Region for providing inventory data of

Meerdaalwoud.

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