59
with
weights
of
a
and
(3,
which
are
not
probabilities,
and
it
does
not
imply
"a
photon
passed
through
either
the
slit-O
or
the
s
lit-I".
The
prob
abilistic
mixture
p never explain
the
interference
pattern.
The
double slit
experiment
symbolically represents
the
decision-making
process which we discussed previously.
Let
us replace
the
term
of
"photon"
by
"the
player B" ,
and
replace
the
context
as
"the
photon
passes
through
the
slit-O (or 1)" by
"the
player B chooses
the
strategy
OB
(or I
B
)".
Then,
the
distribution
shown in Fig. 5 (
or
Fig. 6 ) represents a posterior analysis
by
the
play
er
A who determines
the
player B chose
OB
(or
IB).
Further-
more,
the
distribution
in
Fig. 7 is
int
erp
re
ted
as
the
mixture
of
posterior
analyses corresponding
to
a prior analysis
in
the
conventional game the-
ory.
Th
e existence of
the
two
photon-detectors
in Fig. 7 means
that
the
player A determines
the
player
B's
choice probabilistically.
The
game
the-
ory identifies
this
probabilistic
determination
as
an
uncertainty
the
A holds.
However, we consider a more deep
unc
ertai
nty
where
the
player A
can
never
determine
the
B's choice essentially.
The
distribution
in Fig. 8 represents
a prior analysis
based
on
such
the
unc
erta
inty.
The
mathematical
formalism
in
quantum
mechanics gives
th
e
quantum
uncertainty
with
quantum
fluctuation, which is differe
nt
essentially from
the
classical probability distribution. As
pointed
out
previously, we believe
that
the
quantum
uncertainty
is very similar
to
the
uncert
ai
nty
which
the
player
A holds for
the
another
player
B's
choice. Someone might criticize
that
the
B's
action
is a classical phenomenon, so such
the
uncertainty
should
be
described by classical probabilities. However,
this
stochastic
phenom
enon
is
just
an
objective fact recognized posteriorly from some
statistical
data.
The
uncertainty
in decision-making
should
be
described
with
based
on
the
subjective fact
that
the
player A essentially
can
never
determine
the
B's
choice.
This
subjective fact is
rather
r
ea
listic for
A's
prior analysis
in
his
decision-making.
References
1.
Shafir,
E.
and
Tversky, A.:
Thinking
through
unc
erta
inty: nonconseque
ntial
reasoning a
nd
choice. Cognitive Psychology 24, 449-474 (1992)
2.
Tversky
, A.
and
Shafir, E.:
The
disjun
ction
effect in choice
under
uncert
a
inty
.
Psychological Science, 3,
305-309 (1992)
3.
Croson, R.:
The
disjunction
effect
and
reasoning-based choice
in
games. Or-
ganizational
Behavior
and
Human
Decision Processes 80, 118-133 ( 1999)
4.
Hofstader,
D. R.: Dil
emmas
for
superrational
thinkers,
l
ea
ding
up
to
a luring
lottery. Scientific
American,
6 (1983)