Jason Trennert. New Market New Strategies

Copyright © 2005 by McGraw-Hill, Inc.
Contents.
acknowledgments vii.
Introduction.
Part I.
investment themes for the next.
decade.
1 yield Makes a Comeback, and the Importance of Dividends.
Imagine a Private Company.
The Historical Importance of Dividends.
Two Percent Dividend Yields: Who’s to Blame?
Case study: McDonald’s.
Dividends and Growth stocks.
Lowering the Tax rate on Dividends and Capital Gains.
Potential Impact of the Tax Cut.
The Future.
A note on Preferreds.
Key Take-Aways.
2 The Growing Influence of Hedge Funds.
The Third rail of Investment strategy.
So What’s a Hedge Fund?
Origins of the Present-Day Hedge Fund.
Size and structure of the Hedge Fund Market.
Why the Growth in Hedge Fund Assets Is so Important.
The Influence of Commission on research.
The Declining Usefulness of Traditional sentiment Indicators.
Why Growth in the Industry Will slow.
The High Water Mark.
Case study: Tiger Management.
The Future: Past as Prologue?
Key Take-Aways.
xi.
3 Washington Becomes the Center of the Universe.
War and Market Performance.
market Performance and Exogenous shocks.
Determining Geopolitical risk: The Importance of Oil.
Investment Opportunities in the Defense sector.
Investing in Iraq’s reconstruction Efforts.
The ’62 Market Drop: Kennedy vs. U.S. steel.
Regulators Gain the Upper Hand.
The Limits of Govement Influence: The Go-Go Years.
The Presidential Election Cycle.
Tort reform.
The Importance of the 2004 Election.
The Future.
Key Take-Aways.
4 Investing in Good Corporate Goveance.
A short History of Financial Skullduggery.
Sarbanes-Oxley and Good Corporate Goveance.
An Investor’s Checklist: Waing Signals.
Good Corporate Goveance Outperforms.
The need to Take the Long View.
Key Take-Aways.
5 Winner-Take-All Markets.
Globalization and the Mode Corporation.
The new 800-Pound Gorilla: China.
Free Trade and the Outsourcing Myth.
A new Industrial revolution: Information Technology.
Investing in Creative Destruction.
Key Take-Aways.
Part Ii.
a framework for investing.
6 taking Advantage of the Changes in Investment research.
may Day and the Collapse of Independent research.
Decline in Quality, Eliot Spitzer, and the Settlement.
Sell-Side research and Performance.
Sell-Side research and Market Efficiency.
Case Study: Taiwan.
A new Approach to Investment research.
Key Take-Aways.
7 The need for a New Contrarian Approach.
The Contrarian Approach in a Nutshell.
Lord Keynes: The First Contrarian.
The Importance of Sentiment.
Opinion-Based Indicators.
market-Based Indicators.
media Enthusiasm.
The Importance of Confirmation.
Case Study: The Coconut Crowd.
It’s Better to Be Right Than Smart.
Key Take-Aways.
8 The Importance of Valuation.
It’s Not Rocket Science.
Intrinsic Value: Eaings, Inflation, and Interest Rates.
P/E Ratio: The Linchpin of the Comparable Approach.
Which Eaings?
Key Top-Down Metrics.
The Importance of Flexibility.
Where Are We Now?
Key Take-Aways.
9 Bringing It All Together.
The Market Balance Sheet.
The Market Balance Sheet in Practice.
The Thrifty Fifty.
Key Take-Aways.
10 The Case for Active Management.
more Moderate and Stable Retus.
Low Nominal Growth.
The Size of Indexed Assets.
The Declining Usefulness of the S&P.
mutual Funds Still Make Sense.
Thoughts on the Recent Scandals.
Key Take-Aways.
Conclusion.
Notes.
Index.