him into winter quarters. Rinuccini backed the command with a threat of
excommunication, and since it was so late in the year for campaigning
O’Neill took his own troops into winter quarters. Their lawless and destruc-
tive behaviour outside their native Ulster made them widely unpopular, and
was denounced not only by the moderate Plunkett but by Rinuccini himself.
The immediate threat to Dublin collapsed, and the parliamentary commis-
sioners began a negotiation there with Ormond on 14 November. But he had
never contemplated unconditional surrender, and when he found them
unwilling to allow the king to be any kind of a party to whatever treaty they
might arrive at he broke it off, and they retired into Ulster. His conduct has
recently been severely criticized, and Rinuccini’s strategy of a total conquest
of Ireland justified as constituting ‘a pragmatic assessment of developments in
the three Stuart kingdoms’.
7
But Ormond faced extraordinary difficulties in
reconciling the opportunist tergiversations of his royal master (when he was
kept informed of them) with the true long-term interests of the house of
Stuart—not to mention his very sincere religious beliefs and his consciousness
of his position as senior Old English magnate. On the whole he behaved with
intelligence as well as with integrity. As for Rinuccini, his policy was not only
bound to alienate a considerable part of the population of Ireland, but it was
militarily unrealistic, for he grossly underestimated the power that England
could bring to bear against his forces once her own civil war was over—as to
all intents and purposes it was before he moved against Dublin.
The Scots were not as indifferent towards the king’s fate as Rinuccini was,
but for the time being they offered him little better prospect of armed assist-
ance. Argyll’s party continued to enjoy more support than Hamilton’s among
the nobles, lairds, and burgesses, and had the Kirk behind it. Since Charles
persistently resisted its pressure to impose Presbyterianism on his English
subjects, it came to regard him mainly as a bargaining counter for securing the
payment of England’s large debts for the maintenance of a Scottish army in
England—debts which continued to mount for as long as it remained there.
Charles came to see little prospect in his current situation beyond a possible
change of gaolers, and from the early summer onward he began to plan an
escape to France or Holland. To keep parliament interested in a possible
negotiation, and to play upon its divisions, he found means from September
onward of putting to it certain counter-proposals to those he had received at
Newcastle. He would consider parting with control of the armed forces for
ten years instead of twenty, and he would confirm the Presbyterian Church of
England, now being established by ordinance, for three years, after which an
assembly of twenty Presbyterian divines, twenty Independents, and twenty
346 Towards a Kingless Britain 1646–1649
7
Micheál Ó Siochrú, Confederate Ireland 1642–1649 (Dublin, 1999), p. 107; see also
pp. 77 f., 106 f., 248–9. Though I differ from Dr Ó Siochrú on some points of interpretation, I am
much indebted to his work, especially concerning Plunkett and his middle group.
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