THE CURATIVE POWER OF WAR
27
either a war in August 1914 or at some time in the future. Nor were these people,
their politicians or their newspapers resigned to its necessity or probability, until
the last minute when hope seemed lost. Ordinary civilians were not the only ones
feeling less than passionate about the possibility of war. While stressing Austria’s
need for ‘an ostensible success in the eyes of the world’, the Kaiser was still
worried about the blank cheque the Germans had granted their ally. His political
and military advisers, while hoping war might be localized, also recognized that
an Austro-Serb conflict was a high-risk operation that could lead to a general
European conflagration. In choosing to run this risk they were encouraged by the
apparent reassurances from Sir Edward Grey, the British foreign secretary, that
Britain would remain neutral in the event of a
four-power
continental war, as well
as the domestic problems plaguing Entente powers. In Britain what Churchill
called ‘the haggard, squalid, Irish quarrel...threatened to divide the British nation
into two hostile camps’, while in France a scandal over that nation’s lack of military
preparedness had broken. There was also good news (for the Germans) from
Russia, where a strike by Baku oil workers was spreading and had observers
wondering whether this would lead to the long-expected follow-up revolution to
1905. The degree to which Entente problems affected German thinking is shown
by a 19 July note from the Bavarian
chargé d’affaires
in Berlin. While Austria’s
demands were ‘incompatible with [Serbia’s] dignity as a sovereign state’, Berlin
was ‘absolutely willing that Austria should take advantage of this favourable
opportunity, even at the risk of further complication’.
28
Outside Austria and Serbia, for the first half of July 1914 the crisis was
interpreted blandly as another periodic Balkan dispute, which would surely be
resolved by a last-minute act of statesmanship. Early German reactions to the
assassinations were mostly confined to reports of anti-Serb demonstrations in
Vienna and the funeral of, and eulogies to, the dead archduke. Tucked away
under the eulogies, questions were being asked in some organs of the German
mass media as to whether this regicide might yet ‘set alight the powder keg of
European armaments’. Since even the most-favoured editor or media baron had
no inkling of the contents of the diplomatic messages now heating the wires
across Europe, the waves of optimism, indifference and pessimism that surged
through the press in the weeks that followed were understandable, even though
the impressions formed were often false. French and German papers, which in
June had been abusive to the point of warmongering, now took a moderating
approach. In Germany and Britain, however, there was no need for any such
cooling down. ‘It is doubtful if two nations ever went to war’, wrote Oron Hale,
‘with less preliminary name-calling and combativeness in the press.’ With the
British press still primarily focussed on Ireland, German coverage of the emerging
Balkan crisis was naturally far more extensive, devoting not only the most space
but the greatest variety of opinion to the Austro-Serb crisis of any major power.
Even pan-Germans were split. Where some (like the totally unknown Hitler)
looked forward to Austria-Hungary’s disintegration, most argued, like Class in
the
Post
, that Germany was honour-bound to aid its ally. Honour-bound perhaps,