
ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE NATIONALISTS IJJ
Any attempt to draw up a balance-sheet of
the
Nationalist record in the
rural sector is fraught with difficulties. The nation was so large, local
conditions so varied, and the available data so skimpy and imprecise that
definitive conclusions are elusive. During 1936 and 1937, moreover, the
agrarian crisis ended. Clement weather in those years resulted in the best
crops (except in Kwangtung and Szechwan) that China had known in
almost twenty years. Farm prices were simultaneously high, largely as a
result of an inflationary trend that began in late 1935. As a result of this
adventitious set of circumstances, China's farmers generally enjoyed a
prosperity they had not known for a decade. The basic character of the
political, economic and social system that ensnared the peasants had not
changed, however, and the relative prosperity of 1936—7 proved,
therefore, to be a transient phenomenon.
Leaders in Nanking were largely uninterested in the problems of the
peasants. To the extent that they concerned themselves with economic
problems, they were oriented primarily to the modern sectors of the
economy. They aspired to create a significant industrial base, and they
produced numerous plans and issued innumerable directives to realize that
aspiration. It is a signal fact that industry grew at an impressive rate during
the Nanking decade. According to one reliable estimate, industry in China
(exclusive of Manchuria) grew at an annual rate of 67 per cent from 1931
to 1936. Other indicators of economic development generally support this
estimate. The output of electric power, for example, doubled during the
decade, increasing at an annual average of
9*4
per cent; cotton cloth, 16*5
per cent; bank deposits (at 1928 prices), 15*9 per cent; and so on. These
indicators compared favourably with those of most other countries in the
world. In Germany, for example, production in 1936 was only 6 per cent
above the 1929 level, while in the United States and France production
in 1936 was still, respectively, 12 per cent, and 21 per cent
below
the 1929
levels.
64
To assess the significance of these figures, however, it is necessary to
note that the base upon which production increases were calculated was
exceedingly small. China's electric-power output in 1928, for instance, was
a mere 0.88 million megawatt-hours - compared to 5 million in Russia
the same year and 88 million in the United States.
65
Relative increases
therefore appeared large, whereas absolute increases remained minuscule
by comparison with the more advanced industrial nations and with
China's real needs. Still, in view of the adversities afflicting the Chinese
64
Young, Nation-building, 310 and 396-9.
65
John
K.
Chang, Industrial development in pre-Communist China:
a
quantitative analysis, 119; Abram
Bergson, The economies of Soviet planning, 84; Statistical abstract
of
the United States, 192Q, 367.
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