The European Union and the Challenges of the Near Abroad
227
In spite of the ‘Stability Pact’ and the new ‘common strategies’, approved
in 1999 by the Cologne European Council (regarding Russia), by the Helsinki
European Council (regarding Ukraine) , the progress achieved by The Western
Balkan policy between 2002 and 2004, and during 2006 regarding steps towards
an European energy policy, the EU still lacks a comprehensive, cost-efficient, and
cohesive political-economic ‘grand’ strategy towards eastern Europe, the Balkans
and Russia in particular.
The Maastricht CSFP project, in spite of the improvements approved in
Amsterdam (new Treaty provisions) and in Helsinki (new military means
for ‘Petersberg tasks’ and defence policy) still lacks a satisfying degree of
institutionalization and policy implementation.
The EU shows clear limits regarding its diplomatic power in relation to
intergovernmental bodies (the several ‘Contact groups’ for instance), to nation
states’ power (for example, as the UN security council is concerned) and to the
American role in Europe.
According to Seidelmann, in terms of power, the EU shows its dramatic
deficits in the case of the remilitarization of local conflicts (as shown by the former
Yugoslavia and former USSR experience), particularly in comparison with the
enhanced NATO role in Eastern European security challenges.
Ten years after 1989, instead of a homogeneous trend, we are observing not one,
but instead many ‘eastern Europes’. The ‘strategic partnership’ with Russia looks
as a still insufficient framework for a balanced and dynamic compromise including
energy policy, economic cooperation and political dialogue. There is a ‘winners
group’ (such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary, some of the
Baltic states), where clear achievements in economic and democratic transition are
making of EU 2004 enlargement a recognized success story
5
. There is a various
‘losers group’ (Belarus, Moldova, but also some of the Balkan countries). Here, the
huge problems of economic and political reform have provoked a vicious circle of
dependence on the west. Economic crisis, domestic turbulence, foreign and domestic
malevolence and the real threat of regional instability and anti-West movements have
aggravated this. Ukraine is representing a distinctive transition, including intensive
dialogue with EU and refusal of NATO membership. Finally, after the Kosovo war, a
new group was born, including Albania, Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia,
Montenegro and Kosovo, where ad hoc plans and new priorities have been agreed
with EU, because of political and humanitarian criteria. In conclusion, the general
picture is still very differentiated and ambiguous concerning the feasibility of a new
peace and democratic order at pan-European level.
As far as the foreseeable future is concerned, two developments are possible,
since the Yugoslavian tragedies of the 1990s shattered the rhetorical idealistic
approach of a general benevolence and a final victory for democratic values.
Either one can conceive the eastern European problems as marginal for the global
governance of the world economy and security, or one can emphasize the threat
coming from re-emerging nationalisms, pan-Slavonic fundamentalism, both in the
Balkans and in the former Soviet Union. The first vision takes into account the
dramatic decline of the former USSR as a superpower, the end of the nuclear threat
and the transformation of eastern Europe as part of a growing and encompassing