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Marketing Dynamics: Theory and Practice
steps. At each interval it calculates that the
stock price will move either up or down with a
given probability and also by an amount
calculated with reference to the stock’s
volatility, the time to expiry and the risk free
interest rate. A binomial distribution of prices
for the underlying stock or index is thus
produced. On expiry the option values for each
possible stock price are known as they are equal
to their intrinsic values. The model then works
backwards through each time interval,
calculating the value of the option at each step.
At the point where a dividend is paid (or other
capital adjustment is made) the model takes
this into account. The final step is at the current
time and stock price, where the current
theoretical fair value of the option is calculated.
Black Scholes Model
First proposed by Black and Scholes in a
paper published in 1973. This analytical
solution to pricing a European option on a non-
dividend paying asset formed the foundation
for much theory in derivatives finance. The
Black Scholes formula is a continuous time
analogue of the binomial model. The Black
Scholes formula uses the pricing inputs to
analytically produce a theoretical fair value
for an option. The model has many variations
which attempt, with varying levels of
accuracy, to incorporate dividends and
American style exercise conditions. However
with computing power these days the binomial
solution is more widely used.
PRICE-MARKET RELATIONSHIP
Although the fair value may be close to where
the market is trading, other pricing factors in
the marketplace mean fair value is used mostly
as an estimate of the option’s value. Moreover,
fair value will depend on the assumptions
Strategy Focus 4.2
Harley-Davidson Motorcycles – Pricing
Strategy
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is the parent company for the
group of companies doing business as Harley-Davidson
Motor Company, Buell Motorcycle Company and
Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc. Harley-
Davidson Motor Company, the only major U.S.-based
motorcycle manufacturer, produces heavyweight
motorcycles and offers a complete line of motorcycle
parts, accessories, apparel, and general merchandise. Buell
Motorcycle Company produces sport and sport-touring
motorcycles. Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc.
provides wholesale and retail financing and insurance
programs to Harley-Davidson dealers and customers.
Harley-Davidson enjoyed a monopoly in the motorcycle
industry for many decades. In the 1970’s, Japanese
manufacturers flooded the market with high quality, low
priced bikes. From 1973 - 1983, Harley’s market share
went from 77.5% to 23.3% with Honda having 44% of
the market by 1983. Harley-Davidson could not compete
on price against the Japanese motorcycle producers, so it
had to establish other market values and improve quality.
Harley-Davidson quickly learned it could not compete
with the foreign manufacturers on cost. Not only did
Honda have a low priced product, it was able to defeat
Harley in advertising. Therefore, Harley developed a
strategy of value over price. This was created through the
development of mini-niches and the heavy construction
of the parts. Japanese manufacturers used plastic while
Harley used steel, which is able to be rebuilt and rebuke.
Harley was careful not to exceed demand in production of
their motorcycles. Currently, people must wait six to
eighteen months for a new motorcycle and the price for a
year-old Harley is 25% to 30% higher than a new one. By
not being able to meet demands, an attitude of must-have
has developed. Therefore, Harley has plans to double
capacity to 200,000 motorcycles annually by 2003.
Retail sales of Harley-Davidson® motorcycles for the
year 2003 grew 8.8 percent in the U.S., 6.7 percent in
Europe, and 9.0 percent in Japan compared to 2002.
Based on the information currently available, Harley-
Davidson’s full year market share for the 651cc and up
segment is expected to grow in all of the Company’s
major markets.
Source: Harley-Davidson USA
www.harley-
davidson.com