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feared, and even Adam Smith admitted, that the end of the Navigation System would be the end of Britain's naval
strength. We should find ourselves like the Dutch, wrote Lord Sheffield in his decisive study in 1783, 'rich perhaps
as individuals, but weak as a state'; 'opulent merchants for a time, if riches are our only object'. If a sophisticated
mind like Sheffield's could plead for salvaging the system when the American War was lost, it is small wonder that
ordinary ones clung to the entirety from the beginning. The King's derision of 'weighing such events in the scale of
a tradesman behind his counter' was a simple person's expression of the same belief. 'A small state may certainly
subsist', he declared in 1780, 'but a great one mouldering cannot get into an inferior situation but must be
annihilated.'1
Thus from the outset, and until inevitable defeat stared the country in the face, the American War was popular.
'The executive power', wrote Edward Gibbon, 'was driven by the national clamour into the most vigorous and
coercive measures.'2 And when Parliament assembled in October after the plunge was taken, the Ministry was
backed by overwhelming majorities in both Houses, and a four shilling land tax was accepted without a murmur.
Nevertheless the difficulties were very apparent. Even if Europe stood aside from the struggle, there were some
who shared Vergennes' belief that the task was impossible. Within the Ministry the first news of bloodshed had
revealed weakness and division. Lord Suffolk and Wedderburn, survivors of the old Grenville group, favoured
large military reinforcements and headlong coercion, though they recognised that England always entered her wars
unprepared, and predicted initial reverses. Lord Gower, the leader of the Bedford group, contemplated another
campaign without dismay. But at the vital American Department the pious Dartmouth dreaded the coming struggle;
and his friend and family connection at the head of the Ministry, Lord North himself, led the faint-hearted. Like
Suffolk, North expected initial reverses; but he showed no conviction that matters would improve. As always, the
chief source of purpose and confidence was the King: 'When once these rebels have felt a smart blow, they will
submit; and no situation can ever change my fixed resolution, either to bring the colonies to a due obedience to the
legislature of the mother country, or to cast them off.'3
But how to proceed? The two senior administrators of the army declared that military reconquest was hopeless: 'as
wild an idea', said the Adjutant-General before the news of Bunker Hill, 'as ever controverted common sense'. And
Lord Barrington, the Secretary at War, declared that the Americans 'may be reduced by the fleet, but never can be
by the army'.
1 SP 78/306, 26 Feb. 1778; Harlow, 2212; G 2649, 3155.
2Autobiography, 324
3 Abergavenny, 9; Doniol, I, 153; Sandwich, I, 63; Dartmouth, II, 407.
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