Kissinger Henry. White House Years

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U.S.News&WorldReport,Sept.16,1968,p.48.

TheNecessityForChoice(NewYork:HarperandBros.,1961),p.202.InmybookonEurope,publishedin1965,I

sawsomemeritinPresidentdeGaulle’sconceptionofChinaasanecessarycounterweighttotheSovietUnion,

thoughItendedalsotoregardChinaasanobjectiveproblemfortheUnitedStates’“globalresponsibilities.”The

TroubledPartnership(NewYork:McGraw‐Hill,1965),pp.59‐60.

MostofwhatweknowofwhattookplaceontheUssuriRiverisbasedonthepublishedaccountsofbothsides.

TheseaccountsareanalyzedinThomasW.Robinson,TheSino‐SovietBorderDispute:Background,Development,

andtheMarch1969Clashes,TheRandCorp.,August1970(RM‐6171‐PR).SeealsoNevilleMaxwell,“TheChinese

Accountofthe1969FightingatChenpao,”TheChinaQuarterly,no.56(October‐December1973),p.730.

Maxwell,“TheChineseAccount,”p.731.

SeetheWashingtonStarofAug.28and29,1969.TheStarfeltfreetobreakthe“background”rulebecauseit

hadnotbeeninvitedtotheluncheon.

VII

DefensePolicyandStrategy

KuznetsovquotedinCharlesE.Bohlen,WitnesstoHistory1929‐1969(NewYork:W.W.NortonandCo.,1973),

pp.495‐496.

AlbertWohlstetter,“IsThereaStrategicArmsRace?”ForeignPolicy,no.15(SummerI974),PP‐3‐20;“RivalsBut

No‘Race,’“ForeignPolicy,no.16(Fall1974),pp.48‐81.

ThiswasthetitleofabookbySenatorJ.WilliamFulbright:ThePentagonPropagandaMachine(NewYork:

RandomHouse,1970,andVintageBooks,1971).

ErwinKnollandJudithNiesMcFadden,eds.,AmericanMilitarism1970(NewYork:TheVikingPress,1969),p.11.

SeealsoJohnW.Finney,“45inCongressSeekReinonMilitary,”NewYorkTimes,June3,1969.

NeilSheehan,“CongressGroupHopestoUseABMFighttoCurbOtherArms,”NewYorkTimes,July10,1969.

SeeCongressionalQuarterly,May30,1969,p.847.SeealsotheeditorialintheMarch8,1969,SaturdayReview

(“TheAnti‐BallisticMissileDecision:PresidentNixon’sVietnam?”),reprintedintheNewYorkTimes,March11,

1969,p.19.

CarlKaysen,“MilitaryStrategy,MilitaryForces,andArmsControl,”inKermitGordon,ed.,AgendafortheNation

(Washington:TheBrookingsInstitution,1968),pp.549‐584(quoteisat549‐550);CharlesL.Schultze,“Budget

AlternativesafterVietnam,”ibid.,pp.13‐48.

GrahamAllison,ErnestMay,andAdamYarmolinsky,“LimitstoIntervention,”ForeignAffairs,vol.48,no.2

(January1970),p.246.

NewYorkTimes,April21,1969.

NewYorkTimes,May18,1969.

NewYorkTimeseditorials,Feb.7andFeb.9,1969.

AbramChayesandJeromeB.Wiesner,eds.,ABM:AnEvaluationoftheDecisiontoDeployanAntiballisticMissile

System,withanintroductionbySenatorEdwardM.Kennedy(NewYork:HarperandRow,1969).

StatementbySenatorEdwardM.KennedytotheCommitteeonNationalPriorities,DemocraticPolicyCouncil,

Feb.24,1970.SeealsoNewYorkTimes,Feb.25,1970.

Nixon’sremarks,whileoriginallymadeonabackgroundbasis,werelaterreleasedforpublicationinthe1969

volumeofPublicPapersofthePresidentsoftheUnitedStates:RichardNixon:1969(Washington:US

GovernmentPrintingOffice,1971),pp.544‐556.

VIII

TheAgonyofVietnam

Thatallthekeydecisionsevenintheearly1960swerepublicknowledgeisdemonstratedconvincinglybyHenry

Fairlie,“WeKnewWhatWeWereDoingWhenWeWentIntoVietnam,”WashingtonMonthly(May1973).

“TheVietNamNegotiations,”ForeignAffairs,vol.47,no.2(January1969),pp.211‐234.

AddictsofsecretdocumentsmayreadthisNSCstaffsummaryoftheagencies’responsestoNSSM1inthe

WashingtonPostofApril25,1972.

SeeChapterXII,note11.

UndertheHagueConventionof1907,aneutralcountryhastheobligationnottoallowitsterritorytobeusedby

abelligerent.Iftheneutralcountryisunwillingorunabletopreventthis,theotherbelligerenthastherightto

takeappropriatecounteraction.SeetheaddressbyStateDepartmentLegalAdviserJohnStevensontotheBar

AssociationoftheCityofNewYorkonMay28,1970,explainingourlegalpositionwithrespecttooperationsin

CambodiabyUSandSouthVietnameseforcesfromApril30toJune30,1970(inDepartmentofStateBulletin,

vol.LXII,June22,1970,pp.765‐770).

ThefullHouseJudiciaryCommitteevoted26‐12nottoputforwardthisproposedarticleofimpeachment.The

colorfulphrasesquoted,andothers,maybefoundinUSCongress,House,ReportoftheCommitteeonthe

JudiciaryontheImpeachmentofRichardM.Nixon,PresidentoftheUnitedStates,93dCong.,2dsess.,Aug.20,

1974:p.298(Rep.Waldie,“massivebombingofneutralCambodia”);p.308(Rep.Drinan,“Presidentialconduct

moreshocking…”etc.);seealsopp.307,312(Rep.Drinan,“amassivebombing.”“massivebombinginaneutral

country”);andp.328(Rep.Holtzmanjoinedbynineothers,“thesystematicbombingofaneutralcountry”).

RobertF.Kennedy,ToSeekaNewerWorld(BantamBooks,April1968),especiallypp.207‐218.Kennedywrote:

“Withdrawalisnowimpossible”(p.186)and“Anegotiatedsettlementmustbelessthanavictoryforeither

side…Foreithersidetoyielditsminimumconditionswouldbeinfacttosurrender”(pp.196‐197).

SeeJohnW.Finney,“RockefellerCoupGavePlatformaDovishTone,”NewYorkTimes,Aug.6,1968.

ClarkM.Clifford,“AVietNamReappraisal,”ForeignAffairs,vol.47,no.4(July1969).

ThetextofNixon’sJuly15lettertoHoChiMinhandofHo’sreplywasreleasedbytheWhiteHouseatthetime

ofNixon’sNov.3,1969,speechonVietnam.

MEMORANDUMFORTHEPRESIDENTSeptember10,1969

FROM:HenryA.Kissinger

SUBJECT:OurPresentCourseinVietnam

IhavebecomedeeplyconcernedaboutourpresentcourseonVietnam.Thismemorandumistoinform

youofthereasonsformyconcern.Itdoesnotdiscussalternativecoursesofaction,butisprovidedforyour

backgroundconsideration.Youknowmyrecommendations.

Whiletimeactsagainstbothusandourenemy,itrunsmorequicklyagainstourstrategythanagainst

theirs.ThispessimisticviewisbasedonmyviewofHanoi’sstrategyandtheprobablesuccessofthevarious

elementsofourown.



I.U.S.Strategy



Ineffect,weareattemptingtosolvetheproblemofVietnamonthreehighlyinterrelatedfronts;(1)

withintheU.S.,(2)inVietnam,and(3)throughdiplomacy.Toachieveourbasicgoalsthroughdiplomacy,we

mustbereasonablysuccessfulonbothoftheothertwofronts.



a.U.S.



Thepressureofpublicopiniononyoutoresolvethewarquicklywillincrease—andIbelieveincrease

greatly—duringthecomingmonths.WhilepollsmayshowthatlargenumbersofAmericansnowaresatisfied

withtheAdministration’shandlingofthewar,theelementsofanevaporationofthissupportareclearly

present.TheplansforstudentdemonstrationsinOctoberarewellknown,andwhilemanyAmericanswill

opposethestudents’activities,theywillalsoberemindedoftheirownoppositiontothecontinuationofthe

war.Asmentionedbelow,Idonotbelievethat“Vietnamization”cansignificantlyreducethepressuresforan

endtothewar,andmay,infact,increasethemafteracertainpoint.Particularlysignificantistheclear

oppositionofmany“moderate”leadersofopinion,particularlyinthepressandintheEast(e.g.,LifeMagazine).

Theresultoftherecrudescenceofintensepublicconcernmustbetopolarizepublicopinion.Youwillthenbe

somewhatinthesamepositionaswasPresidentJohnson,althoughthesubstanceofyourpositionwillbe

different.YouwillbecaughtbetweentheHawksandtheDoves.

TheeffectofthesepublicpressuresontheU.S.Governmentwillbetoaccentuatetheinternal

divisivenessthathasalreadybecomeapparenttothepublicandHanoi.Statementsbygovernmentofficials

whichattempttoassuagetheHawksorDoveswillservetoconfuseHanoibutalsotoconfirmitinitscourseof

waitingusout.



b.Vietnam



ThreeelementsontheVietnamfrontmustbeconsidered—(1)oureffortsto“winthewar”through

militaryoperationsandpacification,(2)“Vietnamization,”and(3)thepoliticalpositionoftheGVN.

(1)Idonotbelievethatwithourcurrentplanswecanwinthewarwithintwoyears,althoughoursuccess

orfailureinhurtingtheenemyremainsveryimportant.

(2)“Vietnamization”mustbeconsideredbothwithregardtoitsprospectsforallowingustoturnthewar

overtotheVietnamese,andwithregardtoitseffectonHanoiandU.S.publicopinion.1amnotoptimistic

abouttheabilityoftheSouthVietnamesearmedforcestoassumealargerpartoftheburdenthancurrent

MACVplansallow.Theseplans,however,callforathirty‐monthperiodinwhichtoturntheburdenofthewar

overtotheGVN.Idonotbelievewehavethismuchtime.

Inaddition,“Vietnamization”willrunintoincreasinglyseriousproblemsasweproceeddownitspath.

—WithdrawalofU.S.troopswillbecomelikesaltedpeanutstotheAmericanpublic:themoreU.S.troops

comehome,themorewillbedemanded.Thiscouldeventuallyresult,ineffect,indemandsforunilateral

withdrawal—perhapswithinayear.

—Themoretroopsarewithdrawn,themoreHanoiwillbeencouraged—theyarethelastpeoplewewill

beabletofoolabouttheabilityoftheSouthVietnamesetotakeoverfromus.Theyhavetheoptionof

attackingGVNforcestoembarrassusthroughouttheprocessorofwaitinguntilwehavelargelywithdrawn

beforedoingso(probablyafteraperiodofhigherinfiltration).

—EachU.S.soldierthatiswithdrawnwillberelativelymoreimportanttotheeffortintheSouth,ashe

willrepresentahigherpercentageofU.S.forcesthandidhispredecessor.(Weneednot,ofcourse,continueto

withdrawcombattroopsbutcanemphasizesupporttroopsinthenextincrementswithdrawn.Soonerorlater,

however,wemustbegettingatthegutsofouroperationsthere).

—Itwillbecomeharderandhardertomaintainthemoraleofthosewhoremain,nottospeakoftheir

mothers.

—“Vietnamization”maynotleadtoreductioninU.S.casualtiesuntilitsfinalstages,asourcasualtyrate

maybeunrelatedtothetotalnumberofAmericantroopsinSouthVietnam.Tokillabout150U.S.soldiersa

week,theenemyneedstoattackonlyasmallportionofourforces.

—“Vietnamization”dependsonbroadeningtheGVN,andThieu’snewgovernmentisnotsignificantly

broaderthantheold(seebelow).ThebestwaytobroadentheGVNwouldbetocreatetheimpressionthatthe

Saigongovernmentiswinningoratleastpermanent.Themoreuncertaintythereisabouttheoutcomeofthe

war,thelesstheprospectfor“Vietnamization.”

(3)WefaceadilemmawiththeGVN:ThepresentGVNcannotgomuchfarthertowardsapolitical

settlementwithoutseriouslyendangeringitsownexistence;butatthesametime,ithasnotgonefarenoughto

makesuchasettlementlikely.

Thieu’sfailureto“broaden”hisgovernmentisdisturbing,butnotbecausehefailedtoincludeagreater

varietyofSaigon’sTeaHousepoliticians.Itisdisturbingbecausethesepoliticiansclearlydonotbelievethat

Thieuandhisgovernmentrepresentmuchhopeforfuturepower,andbecausethenewgovernmentdoesnot

offermuchofabridgetoneutralistfigureswhocouldplayaroleinafuturesettlement.Thisisnottomention

hisgeneralfailuretobuilduppoliticalstrengthinnon‐Catholicvillages.Inaddition,asU.S.troopsare

withdrawn,ThieubecomesmoredependentonthepoliticalsupportoftheSouthVietnamesemilitary.



c.DiplomaticFront



ThereisnotthereforeenoughofaprospectofprogressinVietnamtopersuadeHanoitomakereal

concessionsinParis.TheirintransigenceisalsobasedontheirestimateofgrowingU.S.domesticoppositionto

ourVietnampolicies.Itlooksasthoughtheyarepreparedtotrytowaitusout.



II.Hanoi’sStrategy



ThereisnodoubtthattheenemyhasbeenhurtbyalliedmilitaryactionsintheSouth,andisnotcapable

ofmaintainingtheinitiativeonasustainedbasisthere.Statisticsonenemy‐initiatedactivities,aswellassome

ofGiap’srecentstatements,indicateaconsciousdecisionbyHanoitosettledowntoastrategyof“protracted

warfare.”Thisapparentlyconsistsofsmallunitactionswith“highpoint”flurriesofactivity,andemphasison

inflictingU.S.casualties(particularlythroughrocketandmortarattacks).Thispatternofactionsseemsclearlyto

indicatealow‐coststrategyaimedatproducingapsychological,ratherthanmilitary,defeatfortheU.S.

Thisviewoftheirstrategyissupportedbyourestimatesofenemyinfiltration.Theycouldinfiltratemore

men,accordingtointelligenceestimates,despitegrowingdomesticdifficulties.Theonlylogicalreasonfortheir

nothavingdonesoisthatmoremenwerenotneededinthepipeline—atleastforafewmonths—tosupporta

lower‐coststrategyofprotractedwarfare.Itseemsmostunlikelythattheyareattemptingto“signal”tousa

desireforadefactomutualwithdrawal,althoughthiscannotbediscounted.Thereisnodiplomaticsignof

this—exceptinXuanThuy’slinkageofpointstwoandthreeofthePRGprogram—andIdonotbelievetheytrust

usenoughto“withdraw”alargerpercentageoftheirmenthanwehaveofours,astheywouldbedoing.

Hanoi’sadoptionofastrategydesignedtowaitusoutfitsbothwithitsdoctrineofhowtofighta

revolutionarywarandwithitsexpectationsaboutincreasinglysignificantproblemsfortheU.S.



III.Conclusion



Inbrief,IdonotbelievewecanmakeenoughevidentprogressinVietnamtoholdthelinewithintheU.S.

(andtheU.S.Government),andHanoihasadoptedastrategywhichitshouldbeabletomaintainforsome

time—barringsomebreaklikeSino‐Soviethostilities.Hencemygrowingconcern.

MymemorandumforthePresidentofSept.11,1969,argued,interalia:

Giventhehistoryofover‐optimisticreportsonVietnamthepastfewyears,itwouldbepractically

impossibletoconvincetheAmericanpeoplethattheothersideishurtingandthereforewithpatience,time

couldbeonourside.Firstofallwearenotsureaboutourrelativeposition—wehavemisreadindicatorsmany

timesbefore.Secondly,evenifweconcludethatthealliedmilitarypositionissound,wedon’tknowhowto

translatethisintopoliticalterms—andthepoliticalprospectsinSouthVietnamaremuchshakier.Thirdly,the

AdministrationfacesanextremelyskepticalandcynicalAmericanaudience—thePresidentisrightlyreluctantto

appearoptimisticandassumehisowncredibilitygap.Finally,toalargeandvocalportionof thedissentersin

thiscountry,thestrengthofthealliedpositionisirrelevant—theywantanendtothewaratanyprice.

TheNewYorkTimesMagazine,Sept.21,1969.

Forexample,onMarch1,1969,theTimescitedtheeasingoftheCommunistoffensiveasanoccasiontopursue

negotiation.TheCommunists’conciliatoryresponsetoNixon’sMay14speechwascitedonMay18asareason

fortheUStocommencewithdrawal.OnJune10,aneditorialcitedtheclosenessoftheNLFTenPointsandthe

NixonprogramasareasonfortheUStodiscussacoalitiongovernment.EditorialsofJuly28,Aug.25,andAug.

31pointedtothelullinthefightingasanargumentforAmericande‐escalationandacease‐fireproposal.

AneditorialofMarch9,1969,arguedthattheenemy’sspringoffensiveonlyprovedthataUSmilitaryvictory

wasimpossibleandthepeacetalkshadtobepursued.OnJuly28,Hanoi’sstallingintheParistalkswasareason

toaccelerateUSwithdrawals.Theenemy’sAugust11‐12waveofattackspromptedtheTimesonAugust16to

urgeUSde‐escalationandaceasefireproposal.

SeeeditorialsofDec.26,1968,andJan.19,1969(mutualwithdrawal);Jan.30andMarch21(UStoinitiate

mutualwithdrawals);May18(unilateralUSwithdrawals);andMay31(timetableforUSwithdrawal).

Jan.30,1969(“initiate”);March21(“begin”);May31(50‐100,000as“substantial”);June10(“steptoward

disengagement”);Sept.17(“timid,”not“significant”);Sept.27(not“adequate”);Oct.2(“token”).

SeeeditorialsofMay14,1969(coalitionelectoralcommission);June10(interimcoalition).

April3,1969(cutbackofsearch‐and‐destroymissions);Aug.5,Oct.15,1969(callforceasefire).

Jan.19,1969(mutualtroopwithdrawal);Jan.30(UStroopwithdrawal);April3(reductionofsearch‐and‐destroy

missions;UStroopwithdrawal);May14,May15,June10(coalitionelectoralcommission);May18(UStroop

withdrawal);Aug.5,Aug.16,Aug.30(cutbackofoffensiveoperations;standstillcease‐fire);Sept.7(cease‐fire

forHo’sfuneral).

E.g.,July28,1969(UStroopwithdrawal).

Jan.19,Jan.30,1969(troopwithdrawal,afterbombinghalt);April3,1969(reductionofsearch‐and‐destroy

missions,afterB‐52cutback);May15(coalitionelectoralcommission,afterMay14speech);May18(unilateral

troopwithdrawal,afterMay14speech);June10(interimcoalition,afterJunewithdrawalannouncement);Aug.

5,Aug.16,Aug.30(cease‐fire,defensivegroundtactics,afterJunewithdrawalannouncement);Oct.2(after

Septemberwithdrawalannouncement).

E.g.,May5,1969(continuedpursuitofmilitaryvictory);May17(failuretoslowdownoffensiveoperations;

delayinwithdrawingtroops);Aug.16(failuretoproposecease‐fireordeescalation);Aug.25(delayin

withdrawingtroops);Aug.31(continuedmilitarypressure;ignoringlull;delayinwithdrawingtroops);Oct.2

(aggressivegroundtactics;tokenismofwithdrawals,ignoringHofuneraltruce).

E.g.,May5,1969(jailingofopponents;procrastinationwithlandreform);May17(jailingofopponents);Aug.25

(choiceofnewPremier);Sept.12(balkingatHofuneraltruce).

E.g.,March1,1969(totalbombinghalt);May15,May17,1969(May14speech);Aug.16,Oct.2,1969(troop

withdrawal,etc.).

E.g.,March1,1969(easingofCommunistattacks);May9,1969(Front’sTenPoints);May18,1969(initial

responsetoMay14speech);July28,Aug.25,Aug.31,1969(lulls);Aug.16,1969(“virtualcessation”of

infiltration).

March9,May5,1969(step‐upinalliedattacks);Aug.25,Aug.31,1969(lullinfighting).

E.g.,April3,1969(cutbackofsearch‐and‐destroymissions);May5,May17(defensiveposture,USwithdrawal);

May18(USwithdrawal);June10(interimcoalition);Sept.5(HoChiMinhfuneraltruce).

NewYorkTimes,May15,1969;WashingtonPost,June23,1969.

NewYorkTimes,May15,May30,1969

IX

EarlyTestsinAsia

InformationinthisparagraphisfromtheunclassifiedtestimonyofGeneralEarleWheelertoasubcommitteeof

theHouseArmedServicesCommittee,April25,1969.

ThisportionoftheNixon‐Satocommuniquéreadsasfollows:

ThePrimeMinisterdescribedindetailtheparticularsentimentoftheJapanesepeopleagainstnuclear

weaponsandthepolicyoftheJapaneseGovernmentreflectingsuchsentiment.ThePresidentexpressedhis

deepunderstandingandassuredthePrimeMinisterthat,withoutprejudicetothepositionoftheUnitedStates

GovernmentwithrespecttothepriorconsultationsystemundertheTreatyofMutualCooperationandSecurity,

thereversionofOkinawawouldbecarriedoutinamannerconsistentwiththepolicyoftheJapanese

GovernmentasdescribedbythePrimeMinister.[Emphasisadded.]

See,e.g.,I.M.Destler,etal.,ManaginganAlliance:ThePoliticsofUS‐JapaneseRelations(Washington:The

BrookingsInstitution,1976),p.156,abookthatIfoundotherwiseausefulsummaryofthepublicevents.

See,e.g.,RogerMorris,UncertainGreatness(NewYork:HarperandRow,1977),pp.104‐105.

X

WordsandShadows

FatahpolicystatementofOct.19,1968,reportedintheNewYorkTimes,Oct.20,1968.

SeethereportofAndreiZhdanovtotheconferenceofCommunistPartiesestablishingtheCominform,

September1947,reprintedinUSCongress,House,CommitteeonForeignAffairs,TheStrategyandTacticsof

WorldCommunism,ReporttoSubcommittee,No.5onNationalandInternationalMovements,HouseDocument

No.619,SupplementI,80thCong.,2dsession,1948,p.211.ZhdanovessentiallytreatedtheMiddleEastasin

transitionfromtheBritishtotheAmericansphereofinfluence.

SeeArnauddeBorchgrave’sinterviewwithNasserinNewsweekofFeb.10,1969,andhisinterviewwithEshkolin

NewsweekofFeb.17,1969.

XI

TheUneasyAlliance

See,e.g.,acolumnbyC.L.SulzbergerintheNewYorkTimes,Dec.7,1969.

See,e.g.,CongressionalRecord(dailyed.),May18,1971,p.S7217,quotedinJohnNew‐houseetal.,USTroopsin

Europe:Issues,Costs,andChoices(Washington:TheBrookingsInstitution,1971),p.5.

SeeUSCongress,Senate,CommitteeonForeignRelations,UnitedStatesSecurityAgreementsandCommitments

Abroad:UnitedStatesForcesinEurope,HearingsbeforetheSubcommitteeonUnitedStatesSecurityAgreements

andCommitmentsAbroad,91stCong.,2dsess.,Pt.10,testimonyofJune24,1970,p.2243.

WillyBrandt,PeopleandPolitics:TheYears1960‐1975(Boston:Little,Brown&Co.,1978),p.248.

Ibid.,p.289.

XII

TheWarWidens

Walters’srichlydetailedaccountisinVernonA.Walters,SilentMissions(GardenCity,N.Y.:Doubleday&Co.,

1978),chapters24and28.

Ibid.,pp.580‐582.

OnearlierVietnamesedominanceofLaosandCambodia,seeBernardFall,TheTwoVietnams,rev.ed.(London:

PallMallPress,1965),pp.12‐19,33.

Ibid.,p.386.

See,e.g.,NewYorkTimes,Feb.25,1970.

SihanoukinterviewinNewYorkTimes,March12,1970.

Seehismemoirs,MyWarwiththeCIA:TheMemoirsofPrinceNorodomSihanoukasRelatedtoWilfredBurchett

(NewYork:RandomHouse,PantheonBooks,1973),p.24.Seealsopp.21‐22,24‐26,42‐43,50,54,201‐202.

WilliamShawcross,Sideshow:Kissinger,NixonandtheDestructionofCambodia(NewYork:SimonandSchuster,

1979),p.165.

Followingisthetextoftheentiremessage:

MEMORANDUMFORHenryKissinger

FROMTHEPRESIDENT

IthinkweneedaboldmoveinCambodia,assumingthatIfeelthewaytoday(itisfiveAM,April22)atour

meetingasIfeelthismorningtoshowthatwestandwithLonNol.Idonotbelieveheisgoingtosurvive.There

is,however,somechancethathemightandinanyeventwemustdosomethingsymbolictohelphimsurvive.

Wehavereallydroppedtheballonthisoneduetothefactthatweweretakeninwiththelinethatbyhelping

himwewoulddestroyhis“neutrality”andgivetheNorthVietnameseanexcusetocomein.Overandoveragain

wefailtolearnthattheCommunistsneverneedanexcusetocomein.Theydidn’tneedoneinHungaryin1956

whenthesameargumentwasmadebythecareerStatepeopleandwhenDullesboughtitbecausehewastired

anditwasduringthecampaign.Theydidn’tneedoneinCzechoslovakiawhenthesameargumentwasmadeby

theStatepeople,andtheydidn’tneedoneinLaoswherewelostapreciousdaybyfailingtomakethestrikethat

mighthavebluntedthewholeoffensivebeforeitgotstarted,andinCambodiawherewehavetakena

completelyhands‐offattitudebyprotestingtotheSenatethatwehaveonlya“delegationofsevenState

Departmentjerks”intheEmbassyandwouldnotprovideanyaidofanykindbecausewewerefearfulthatifwe

didsoitwouldgivethema“provocation”tocomein.Theyarerompinginthereandtheonlygovernmentin

Cambodiainthelast25yearsthathadthegutstotakeapro‐Westernandpro‐Americanstandisreadytofall.I

amthinkingofsomeonelikeBobMurphywhowouldbesentthereonatriptoreportbacktomeandwhowould

goinandreassureLonNol.This,ofcourse,wouldbeparalleltoyouractivitieswhichwillbeundertaken

immediatelyaftertheNSCmeeting,intheeventthatIdecidetogoonthiscourse,withsomeofthelily‐livered

Ambassadorsfromourso‐calledfriendsintheworld.Wearegoingtofindoutwhoourfriendsarenow,because

ifwedecidetostandupheresomeoftherestofthemhadbettercomealongfast.

IwilltalktoyouaboutthisaftertheNSCmeeting.

JohnMitchelltooknotesofthemeetingandwroteaconcisetwo‐pagememorandum:

MEMORANDUMOFMEETINGApril28,

PRESENT:ThePresident,SecretaryofState,SecretaryofDefense,AttorneyGeneral

SUBJECT:Cambodia/SouthVietnam

ThesubjectmeetingwasheldintheOvalOfficeofThePresidentonTuesday,April28,1970,commencing

at10:20a.m.andlastingforapproximatelytwentyminutes.

ThePresidentstatedthatthepurposeofthemeetingwastoadvisethosepresentofthedecisionshehad

reachedwithrespecttothedevelopingsituationinSouthVietnamandCambodia.ThePresidentfurtherstated

thathehadhadthesubjectunderconstantconsiderationforthepasttendaysandhadtakenintoconsideration

alloftheinformationprovidedbytheDirectorofCentralIntelligence,theJointChiefsofStaffandAdmiral

McCainandhisstaffatthebriefinginHawaii.ThePresidentfurtherstatedthat,inarrivingathisdecision,he

hadtakenintoconsiderationthepositionstakenbytheSecretaryofStateandSecretaryofDefensein

oppositiontotheuseofU.S.ForcesinCambodiaandthefactthatDr.Kissingerwasleaningagainstthe

recommendationofsuchuse.

ThePresidentfurtherstatedthatthepreviousdayhehadmadecertaininquiriesofAmbassadorBunker

andGeneralAbrams.ThePresidentreadhiscommunicationtoAmbassadorBunkerandtheAmbassador’sreply

receivedlateMondayevening.

ThePresidentfurtherstatedthat,baseduponhisreviewofthegeneralCambodiansituation,hehad

decidednottochangethecurrentU.S.positionwithrespecttomilitaryassistancetoCambodiaorhis

authorizationfortheARVNoperationintheParrot’sBeak.ThePresidentfurtherstatedthathehaddecidedto

confirmtheauthorizationforacombinedU.S./GVNoperationagainstCOSVNheadquartersinFishHookinorder

toprotectU.S.ForcesinSouthVietnam.ThePresidentexpressedtheopinionthattheCOSVNoperationwas

necessaryinordertosustainthecontinuationoftheVietnamizationProgramandwouldpossiblyhelpin,but

notdetractfrom,U.S.effortstonegotiatepeace.

ThePresidentfurtherstatedthathehadtakenintoconsideration,inarrivingathisdecisions,theprobable

adversereactioninsomeCongressionalcirclesandsomesegmentsofthepublic.ThePresidentfurtherstated

that,inordertoestablishtherecordoftheeventsleadingtohisdecisionsandtheadvicehehadreceived

concerningthesubjectmatterthereof,thepreviouseveninghehaddictatedatapewhichincludedthecontrary

recommendationsoftheSecretaryofStateandtheSecretaryofDefense.

AtthecloseofthePresident’sstatementshelefttheOvalOfficetoattendanothermeetingintheCabinet

Room.Therewasnodiscussionofthesubjectmatterofthemeetingbyothersinattendanceduringthe

presenceofthePresident.

[Signed:]J.N.Mitchell

SeeElizabethBecker,“Cambodia:ALookatBorderWarwithVietnam,”WashingtonPost,Dec.27,1978;Henry

Kamm,“PolPotConfirmedAssertionbyNixon,”NewYorkTimes,March18,1979,p.7.

NewYorkTimes,May18,1970.

Seee.g.,StanleyKarnow,“Cambodia:Nixon’stheOne,”WashingtonPost,Jan.12,1979.

Seee.g.,WilliamShawcross,“Cambodia:TheBlame,”TheSundayTimes(London),Dec.12,1976;“Who‘Lost’

Cambodia?”NewYorkTimes,Feb.6,1979;Sideshow,passim.

E.g.,Shawcross,Sideshow,pp.372‐373,389.Shawcross,whothusexcusedtheKhmerRougeatrocities,was

amazinglyupbraidedinturnbyanotherwriterwhoallegedthattherewasinsufficientevidencetheatrocities

evertookplace.RichardDudman,TheNewYorkTimesBookReview,April22,1979.Someofourcriticsseemto

bereadytogivePolPotthebenefitofthedoubtbeforetheirowngovernment.

SeealsoSihanouk’sinterviewintheFarEasternEconomicReview,May11,1979,p.14,inwhichhedescribedPol

Potasa“butcher”responsibleforthedeathsoftwomillionCambodians.

AnexcellentanalysisoftheKhmerRouge’smethodicalapplicationofideologicaldoctrineisbyFrancois

Ponchaud,Cambodia:YearZero(NewYork:Holt,RinehartandWinston,1977).ThequotationfromKhieu

Samphan’sdissertationisonp.87.

CongressionalRecord(dailyed.),Dec.16,1970,pp.S20283,20289ff.

XIII

TheSovietRiddle

CharlesL.SchultzewithEdwardK.HamiltonandAllenSchick,SettingNationalPriorities:The1971Budget

(Washington:TheBrookingsInstitution,1970),chapter2.

QuotedintheNewYorkTimes,Feb.24,1970.

See,e.g.,anarticleinCommentaryinMarch1970thatdenouncedNixonforhisABMprogram,MIRVtesting,and

laxityinpursuinglimitationsinSALT:MauriceJ.Goldbloom,“NixonSoFar,”Commentary(March1970),pp.30‐

31

MystaffsummedupformeDavePackard’srecommendationsthatitwasurgentthatwenegotiatelimitson

offensivesystemsassoonaspossible:

SecretaryPackardhassentyouamemoonSALTobjectivesandtactics.InithearguesthattheDelegation

shouldbegivennewinstructions“withwhichwecanattempttoachieveanagreementatViennabymid‐October

or,atthelatest,November.”Hesaysanearly,thoughlimited,agreementisimportantbecausethecoming

“squeezeonthenationalbudget”whichis“likely”toresultin“largereductionsindefenseprograms,including

strategicforces,”hasa“significanteffectonthetimingofourSALTtactics.”This,hesays,isbecausecutsdictated

bythebudgetwillbemoreacceptableintheU.S.anda“signofgoodintentions”totheUSSRiftherehasbeen

progressatSALTbutwould“decreaseourbargainingleverage”iftherehadnot.

(ItwouldbeinterestingtoknowwhatcutsinstrategicprogramsDODplanswhichwould“decreaseour

bargainingleverage”thisfall.)

XV

TheAutumnofCrises:Jordan

SeeHenryBrandon,TheRetreatofAmericanPower(GardenCity,N.Y.:Doubleday&Co.,1973).p.134.

XVI

TheAutumnofCrises:Cienfuegos

RN:TheMemoirsofRichardNixon(NewYork:Grosset&Dunlap,1978),pp.220‐221.

Reported,forexample,intheBaltimoreSun,Sept.3,1970.

NewYorkTimes,Jan.6,1971.

XVII

TheAutumnofCrises:Chile

SeePaulE.Sigmund,TheOverthrowofAllendeandthePoliticsofChile,1964‐1976(Pittsburgh:Universityof

PittsburghPress,1977),p.89.ThetextofthePopularUnityprogrammaybefoundinJ.AnnZammit,ed.,The

ChileanRoadtoSocialism(Austin:UniversityofTexasPress,1973),pp.255‐284.

SeeRégisDebray,TheChileanRevolution:ConversationswithAllende(NewYork:RandomHouse,Pantheon

Books,1971),p.159

Ibid.,p.119.

Ibid.,p.120.

Ibid.,p.118.

Ibid.,p.117.

Ibid.,p.118.

Ibid.,pp.122‐123.

Ibid.,p.82.

UnderPresidentFord’sintelligencereorganizationof1976itwasrenamedtheOperationsAdvisoryGroup;

underPresidentCarterthesamefunctionsarecarriedoutbyasimilarcommitteecalledtheNSCSpecial

CoordinationCommittee,underExecutiveOrder12036,Jan.24,1978.

USCongress,Senate,SelectCommitteetoStudyGovernmentalOperationswithRespecttoIntelligence

Activities,AllegedAssassinationPlotsInvolvingForeignLeaders:AnInterimReport,94thCong.,1stsess.,

November1975,p.229.

Debray,TheChileanRevolution,pp.123‐125.

InterviewwithMexicoCitynewspaperExcelsior,publishedonNov.4,1970.

SeeNewYorkTimes,Nov.9,1970.

ChilereceivedduringtheAllendeperiodatotalof$947.9millioninnewcreditsextendedbyCommunistand

Westernsources,whichincluded$620millionfromSovietandotherCommunist‐bloccountries.Thesefigures

donotincludeongoingdisbursementsunderpreviouscommitments.Forexample,theInter‐American

DevelopmentBank(IDB)disbursed$46.2milliontoChileintheAllendeperiod,with theyearlyaverageduring

thatperiodinfactlargerthanthedisbursementsbytheIDBtoChileduringanysingleyearfrom1964to1970.

SeeUSCongress,House,CommitteeonForeignAffairs,UnitedStatesandChileDuringtheAllendeYears,1970‐

1973,HearingsbeforetheSubcommitteeonInter‐AmericanAffairsoftheHouseCommitteeonForeignAffairs,

1975,pp.324,447;USCongress,Senate,SelectCommitteetoStudyGovernmentalOperationswithRespectto

IntelligenceActivities,CovertActioninChile,1963‐1973,StaffReport,94thCong.,1stsess.,1975,p.32;Report

bytheInter‐AmericanCommitteeontheAllianceforProgress,Jan.28,1974,onChile’sinternalsituationand

externalfinancingneeds(OrganizationofAmericanStatesSeriesH/XIV,CIAP/650),pp.V14‐V15.

XVIII

AnInvitationtoPeking

RogerMorris,UncertainGreatness(NewYork:HarperandRow,1977),p.97.

SeeNewYorkTimes,June18,1970.

EdgarSnow,“ChinaWillTalkfromaPositionofStrength,”Life,July30,1971,p.24.

Time,Oct.5,1970.

RN:TheMemoirsofRichardNixon(NewYork:Grosset&Dunlap,1978),p.546.

NixonrecordsthatwelearnedofMao’sstatement“withinafewdaysafterhemadeit.”RN,p.547.Afterlooking

overmyrecords,IbelievethatneitherNixonnorIknewofthecommentsbyMaountiltheywerepublishedby

LifeonApril30,1971,afterthePing‐Pongepisode.TheearliestreferenceinmyrecordstothefactofaSnow

interviewisinalow‐levelStateDepartmentreportofApril1,1971,totheeffectthatinaninterviewwithSnow

MaohadshownsomeflexibilityregardingTaiwan.SnowwroteagainonthesamesubjectinLife,July30,1971.

NixonmusthavemeantthathewasawareoftheSnowinterviewbeforemysecrettrip,whichiscorrect.

ThisaccountisfromaUPIstorybyArnoldDibblepublishedJuly16,1971.

ArminMeyer,ourAmbassadorinTokyo,givesthisaccountandjustlypraisesCunninghamforhisrole.ArminH.

Meyer,AssignmentTokyo:AnAmbassador’sJournal(Indianapolis:Bobbs‐Merrill,1974),pp.130‐131.

Snow,“ChinaWillTalkfromaPositionofStrength,”p.24.

RN,p.552.

XIX

TheJourneytoPeking

NewYorkTimes,July26,1971,p.6.

BrandontellsthestorywithgraceandhumorinHenryBrandon,TheRetreatofAmericanPower(GardenCity,

N.Y.:Doubleday&Co.,1973),chapter11.

ArminH.Meyer,AssignmentTokyo(Indianapolis:Bobbs‐Merrill,1974),pp.133‐137.

NewYorkTimes,Oct.31,1971.

XX

BreakthroughonTwoFronts

E.g.,RN:TheMemoirsofRichardNixon(NewYork:Grosset&Dunlap,1978),p.523.SeealsoMarquisChilds,

WashingtonPost,June1,1971.

“U.S.SplitonDefenseCosts,MuskieToldSovietPremier,”WashingtonStar,Jan.26,1971.

“SenatePaneltoBeInformedonProgressinArmsTalks,”WashingtonStar,Feb.2,1971.

“U.S.NegotiatorTestifiesonLimitingABMs,”WashingtonPost,Feb.4,1971;“FosterAsksTotalBanonA‐Tests,”

WashingtonPost,Feb.28,1971.

UnitedPressInternational,May4,1971.

SenateReopensDebateOverABM,”NewYorkTimes,April20,1971.

“Harvard‐M.I.T.ArmsExpertsPleasedbyNixon’sMoveonTalks,”NewYorkTimes,May27.1971.

XXI

TheTilt:TheIndia‐PakistanCrisisof1971

SEATO’smembershipincludedtheUnitedStates,Britain,France,Australia,NewZealand,Pakistan,the

Philippines,Thailand(andSouthVietnamasaprotocolstate).CENTOgroupedthecountriesoftheso‐called

NorthernTier,Turkey,Iran,andPakistan,withBritain;theUnitedStateswasamemberinallbutname.

WashingtonStar,May19,1971.

TheStateDepartmentacknowledgedonJune22thatitsoriginalannouncementoftheembargoonApril15did

notmentionthefactthatearliertransactionswouldnotnecessarilybeaffectedbyit.SeetheNewYorkTimes,

June23,1971.

Dobryninalsogavethegestationperiodasayear.JhatoldRogersitwastwoyears,andForeignMinisterSingh

gavethisfigurepublicly.AfterNixon’sJuly15Chinaannouncement,SinghhadtoldtheIndianParliament

crypticallythatIndiahadbeenconsideringcountermeasurestoapossibleSino‐Americanrapprochement“for

sometime”(seeChapterXIX).

SydneyH.Schanberg,“IndiaSetsRangeforRetaliationsinEastPakistan,”NewYorkTimes,Nov.29,1971.

TheArticleread:“TheGovernmentofPakistanisdeterminedtoresistaggression.Incaseofaggressionagainst

Pakistan,theGovernmentoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica,inaccordancewiththeConstitutionoftheUnited

StatesofAmerica,willtakesuchappropriateaction,includingtheuseofarmedforces,asmaybemutually

agreeduponandasisenvisagedintheJointResolutiontoPromotePeaceandStabilityintheMiddleEast,in

ordertoassisttheGovernmentofPakistanatitsrequest.”

AssurancesweregivenbytheKennedyandJohnsonadministrations,includingaletterfromPresidentJohnF.

KennedytoPakistaniPresidentMohammedAyubKhanonJan.26,1962;anaide‐memoirepresentedbytheUS

AmbassadoronNov.5,1962;apublicstatementbytheStateDepartmentonNov.17,1962;andanoralpromise

byPresidentLyndonJohnsontoAyubKhanonDec.15,1965.

SeetheAndersoncolumnintheWashingtonPost,Dec.21,1971,andtheminutesoftheDec.8WSAGmeeting