Kissinger Henry. White House Years

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improvements.HetoldDuchewasconfidentwecoulddetectinfiltration;hetold

himofcontingencyplanshehaddiscussedthatverymorningwiththeJoint

Chiefs.Withoutanagreement,Nixonsaid,therewasnochanceforcontinuingUS

aid.HeofferedtomeetwithThieutoreaffirmoursupportaftertheagreement

wasconcluded.Theoptimumcoursewasto“pulltogether,getthebestpossible

agreement,andthengoforwardtogetherwithU.S.economicandmilitaryaid

and,aboveall,strongassurancesthattheagreementwillbeenforced.”Nixon

informedDuc,finally,thatiftheagreementfailed,Congresswouldprobablycut

offfundsbymid‐January.AllthisfellonthestolidDucwithoutanynoticeable

effect.Whenitwasallover,NixonremarkedresignedlytomethatThieuwas

playing“chicken”andthatwehadprobablynochoiceexcepttoturnonhim.



OnthemorningofNovember30,ashetoldDuc,NixonhadmetwithLaird

andtheJointChiefsofStaff.LairdestimatedthattheCongresswouldsurelyvote

tocutofffunds.



WehadsentamessagetoHanoionNovember27sayingthatwewould

makeamaximumeffortonDecember4andtoshowourgoodwill,wewere

reducingairoperationsoverNorthVietnam.ThePresident,onmy

recommendation,orderedacutof25percentinoursorties.Itwasprobablya

mistake;IcanremembernoinstancewheretheNorthVietnamesereciprocated

gesturesofunilateralrestraint.Morelikely,theysawsuchmovesasimpelledby

weakness.Hanoi’sresponseofNovember30inanycasepocketedthegesture

whiledismissingit:NorthVietnamdeemeditnecessarytopointout“thatsofar

ferociousU.S.airattacksagainsttheDemocraticRepublicofVietnam,especially

withB‐52planes,infacthavenotbeenreduced.”FortherestHanoiblamedthe

impasseentirelyonAmericanandSouthVietnameseactions.Wereturnedatart

replyonthesameday:



AstheU.S.hasconsistentlypointedout,theone‐sidedpresentationbytheDRVofthe

reasonsforthecurrentdifficultiescannotcontributetotherapidsettlementofthewar…

Clearlythetwosideswillbeatapointwherechoiceswillhavetobemadebetweenanearly

peaceoraprolongationoftheconflictwithunforeseeableconsequences.TheU.S.willmakeits

maximumeffortbutthiscannotsucceedwithoutsimilareffortbytheDRV.



AmidloomingCongressionaldisenchantment,caughtbetweentwo

implacableVietnamesesideswhospecializedintormentingeachother,stungby

leaksathomethatmypositionasnegotiatorwasnotallthatsecure,Iwasnotina

brilliantpositionfromwhichtoresumethenegotiationonDecember4.



<<Contents>>

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

TheDecemberTalks:BreakdownoftheNegotiation



hereseemednotmuchpointinbeginningtheroundonDecember4by

repeatingoursterileexchanges,especiallybeforetwodelegationsnow

swollenbytechnicalexpertson bothsides.IthereforeproposedbycablethatLe

DucThoandIsho uldbeginwithanother “open‐hearted”privatediscussion.

Hanoiaccepted,andsuggestedtheoriginalmeetingplaceat11rueDarthé.What

tookplacebetweenLeDucThoandXuanThuyononesideandHaigandmeon

theotherdeservesmanyappellations,but“open‐hearted”isnotlikelytobeone

ofthem.ContrarytohisusualinsistencethatIspeakfirst,LeDucTholaunched

intoanopeningstatementharkingbacktothefieryrhetoricofourearly

encounters.Heaccusedusofseekingtostrengthenwhathecalledthe“puppet 

administration”ofSaigon.HecriticizedtherefusaltoreleaseVietCongpolitical

prisoners—whichhehadacceptedinOctober.HerepeatedtheepictaleofNorth

Vietnameseimperviousnesstomilitarypressure.MyreplytriedtoputbeforeLe

DucThooursincerecommitmenttopeace—anenterprisethathadalwaysproved

futileinthepastandwastodosoagain:

T



TheSpecialAdviserhasresortedtohisusualtactics,accusingusofsupposedbadfaith

andevilmotives.Thereisatimeforsuspicionbutthereisalsoatimeforunderstanding.What

istherealityaswelookatit?Ihavepubliclyacknowledged[onOctober26]somethingyou

haveneverdone:thatyoumadeanimportantproposalinOctober.IftheSpecialAdviser

reflectsforafewminuteshewillrecognizethatitwasagreattemptationthen,andwe

receivedmuchadvicethatweshouldjustbreakthenegotiationsandaccuseyouofbadfaith.

Weresistedthisadviceandputourselvesinapubliclydisadvantageouspositioninorderto

maintainthemomentumtowardpeaceand,quitefrankly,toputtheotherVietnameseparties

underanobligationtomovemorerapidly…YoumadeanimportantproposalonOctober8.

WhatwouldyouhavedoneifIhadsaidthatIwouldhavetogotoSaigontodiscussitandwe

couldnotmeetfortwoorthreemoreweeks?Wehavemanagedtospendthreeyearswith

eachother.Youknowthatitwouldhavebeeneasytowastemanymoremonths.Itwasagreat

temptation.Wedeliberatelyagreedtoanacceleratedschedule,knowingverywellwhatrisks

wereinvolved.Risksforourcountry,sinceyouwouldhavetheopportunitytodowhatyouare

nowdoing,andpersonalrisksforallinvolved.Soyoumustunderstandthatwhenyouaccuseus

ofbadfaith,thatisextremelyoffensivetous…Consideringwhatwehavealreadyachievedit

wouldbeanhistoricaltragedy,anhistoricalabsurdityifwecouldnotconcludeanagreement.If

weanalyzetheagreementintermsofwhohastodowhat,thespecificobligations,wehave

settlednearlyeverythingalready.Sothereisreallynotmuchmoretonegotiateabout.Either

wewillsettlethisweekorwewillneversettle.



Sothat’showitlookstous.Iknowitlooksdifferenttoyou.Iamsurewecanspendthe

wholeweekdiscussinghistory,goodwillandseriousintent.Butwhatweneednowiswisdom

toseewhetherwecansettleintheshorttermbecauseweunderstandthelongtermalready.

Wewillmakeamaximumeffort.Youmaynotconsiderthisenough.Iactuallythinkwecould

settleveryquickly.Wehavetwoplans,oneforwarandoneforpeace.Thereisnosensegiving

youourplanforwar.Wehavetalkedaboutthisoftenenough.Letmetellyouaboutourplan

forpeace.



Theplanwastosettletheremainingissueswithintwodays,thatisbythe

eveningofDecember5.ThemorningafterLeDucThoandIconcludedan

agreement,VicePresidentAgnew,accompaniedbyGeneralHaig,wouldleavefor

SaigontobriefThieu.Withinforty‐eighthourswewouldstopallbombingof

NorthVietnam.WewouldsigntheagreementnolaterthanDecember22.AndI 

presentedastripped‐downversionoftheminimumchangesforwhichwewould

settle.



ButasoneverypreviousoccasionLeDucThoprov edunmovedby

eloquence;hewasaspecialistinthebalanceofpower;hecouldnotbeswayedby

wordswhenhesawthebalancetiltingtowardhim.Inturn,heindulgedinoneof

hismaddeningverbalgames.Hecalledonmetomakea“greateffort”;he

promisedthathewouldmakean“effort.”Whenhehadsaiditoftenenough,I

askedwhetherhewasnotentitledtoanadjectiveforhimse lf.No,repliedthat

stalwartfromHanoi’sPolitburo,becauserecentlyhehadmade“greatefforts”

andIhadonlyreciprocatedwith“efforts.”LestImissthepoint,herepeated:“We

havealreadymadegreateffortsandexhaustedthepossibilities.Thereremains

onlylittleeffort[forus]tomake.” 



SoontheafternoonofDecember4,ourtwodelegationsmetagain—this

timeinanewlocationpickedbytheNorthVietnamese,inSainteGemme,about

anhour’sdriveWestofParis.Myspeechofthemorninghadclearlyleftno

impression.LeDucThodidnotevenmakelittleefforts;hemadenoneatall.He

seizedthefloorforaviolentdenunciationofourtactics.Hethenrejectedallour

proposalsfromthemorning ’sprivatesession.Whilehewasatit,healso

withdrewnineofthetwelvechangeshehadacceptedduringtheprevious

sessionsinNovember.Atthesametimehemaintainedallhisdemandsfor

changesintheOctoberagreement.AsIreportedto thePresident:



Herejectedeverychangeweaskedfor,askedforachangeoncivilianprisoners,

demandedthewithdrawalofAmericanciviliansfromSouthVietnamthusmakingthe

maintenanceoftheVietnamairforceimpossible,andwithdrewsomeconcessionsfromlast

week.Inshort,wewouldwindupwithanagreementsignificantlyworsethanwhatwestarted

with.Itoldhimflatlythathisapproachdidnotprovidethebasisforasettlement.Inthe

ensuingdialogueThostuckfirmlybyhisintransigentposition.Theonlyalternativeheofferedto

hispresentationthisafternoonwastogobacktotheOctoberagreementliterallywithno

changesbyeitherside.



IdidnotbelievethatLeDucThowouldhavedaredtoputfo rwardsuch

propositionsunless hewaswillingtoriskabreak‐offinthetalks.Backatthe

EmbassyresidencemyassociatesandIspenthoursporingovertherecordsofthe

meetings,seekingtodistillsomerayofhopefromsomearcaneformulation.We

couldnotfindany.Wehadtakenovertheentireresidence,sinceAmbassador

Watsonhadresignedandhissuccessor(JohnIrwin)hadnotyettakenuphispost.

Staffmemberswerefranticallyrewritingdocuments;secretarieswerecollating

materials.Thediningroomstayedopenthebetterpartofeachnightserving

outstandingmealsthatwereconsumedindeepeninggloom.



ThatfirstnightIconcludedthattheonlyhopeofavertingacollapsewould

bemessagestoMoscowandPekinginformingHanoi’sCommunistbackersofthe

prospectsbeforethem.IaskedDickKennedy,manningmyofficeinWashington,

totellDobryninthatwewereapproachin gasituationcomparabletolast May,

requiringthesamekindofreaction.TogiveMoscowtimetomakeitsinfluence

felt,IaskedLeDucThoonDecember5fora twenty‐four‐hourpostponementof

themeetingscheduledforthatafternoon“becauseofthegravesituation 

resultingfromtheDecember4meeting.”



MyreporttoNixonmadeclearthatIdidnotseehowwecouldaccept

returningtotheOctobertext(nottospeakofoneevenworse,asHanoi

proposed).ThoughIconsideredtheagreementagoodonethen,intervening

eventswouldturnacceptanceofitintoadebacle.Ifwecouldnotbringabouta

singlechangereque stedbySaigon(orworsestill,acceptedalessfavorable

agreement),itwouldbetantamounttowreckingtheSouthVietnamese

government.Worstofall,“itwoulddepriveusofanyabilitytopolicethe

agreement,becauseiftheCommunistsknowwearewillingtoswallowthis

backdown,theywillalsoknowthatwewillnothavethecapacityto reactto

violations.”



Thusouronlyrealchoicewastopursueacoursethatinvolvedahighriskof

abreak‐off.Tworealisticpossibilitiesexisted:First,wecoulddropalladditional

requestsandsigntheagreementwiththetwelvechangestowhichtheNorth

VietnamesehadagreedinNovember.Second,wecouldpersevereinseeking

someoftheadditionalchangesrequestedbyThieu,reducingthemdowntotwo:

droppingthephrase“administrativestructure,”andincludingsomeclausethat

deniedHanoithelegalrighttointerveneintheinternalaffairsofSouthVietnam.

“If,asseemstotallyunlikely,theothersidebuysthispackage,wewouldhave

gainedasignificantchangeinboththepoliticalandmilitaryareas.Thusthisextra

roundwouldhavebeenjustifiedandwewouldbeinastrongerpositionversus

Saigon,althoughourproblemstherewouldstillbemassive.”Ifavoredthesecond

course.However,IwarnedthePresident,Hanoiwouldalmostcertainlyreject

eitherapproach:



ThecentralissueisthatHanoihasapparentlydecidedtomountafrontalchallengetous

suchaswefacedlastMay.Ifso,theyaregamblingonourunwillingnesstodowhatis

necessary;theyareplayingforaclearcutvictorythroughoursplitwithSaigonorourdomestic

collapseratherthanruntheriskofanegotiatedsettlement.Thisisthebasicquestion;therest

istactics.Iftheywerewillingtosettlenow,Icouldcomeupwithacceptableformulasand

wouldnotneedtobotheryou.Assumingtheyaregoingtheotherroute,wearefacedwiththe

samekindofharddecisionsaslastspring.



IconsideredabreakupprobableandIrecognizedmyownresponsibilityin

havingforcedthepacesinceOctober:“Ifthishappens,Iwilltalktoyouuponmy

returnaboutmyownresponsibilityandrole.Theimmediatetasknow,ofcourse,

istosaveournat ionalhonorandpositionourselvesasbestwecanwithour

peopleandtheworldsoastopursueaprincipledpolicyinSoutheastAsia.”I

addedanotherpagesayingthatifthePresidentacceptedmyrecommendationhe

shouldexplainthedecisioninatelevisionaddresstotheAmericanpeople.Haig,

Lord,andIdiscussedthisaddendumina strategysessioninmybedroom

overlookingtheresidence’selegantgarden.Haigespeciallythoughtitessential

thatthePresidentbefacedwiththeimplicationsofa deadlocknotonlyinterms

ofmilitaryescalationbutalsoasameanstodiscouragesomeofthestarchier

recommendationsofamateurs,nowNixon’ssoleregularcontactsinthestrange

moodthathadsettledoverhimsincetheelection.



BreakingsuchnewstotheAmericanpublicwasnot theirideaofwhattodo

withhisoverwhelmingelectoralvictory.Buttherewasnodisagreementbetween

usastosubstance.Nixonthereforerejectediteventhoughheagreedwithmy

analysis.HecabledbackonDecember5approvingmynegotiatingtactics.Hehad

notroublewithmyviewthatincaseofabreakupwewouldhavetostepup

militarypressure.Indeed,hewaseagertoorderanattackbyB‐52sontheHanoi‐

HaiphongcomplexevenbeforemytalksresumedonDecember6.Heaskedmy

judgmentonwhetherheshouldorderAdmiralMoorertoincreasethereadiness

ofourforcesandalsowhetherIwantedtobuymoretimebyreturningto

Washingtonforconsultation.Myideaofthetelevisionappearance,however,

foundnofavoratall:“Ithink,however,thattheoptionofraisingthistothe

PresidentiallevelforcestheRussiansandtheChinesetoreact,wouldgetatbesta

mixedreactionhereintheU.S.,andmightmakeSaigonmoredifficulttodealwith

thantheypresentlyare.”



Eachofus,NixonandhisadvisersononesideandIontheother,were

imprisonedinaworldofhisown,whichtouchedthatoftheotheronly

peripherally.Iwassensitivetothenegotiatingsituation;heunderstoodwhatthe

trafficwouldbeardomestically.IthoughtIknewthebalanceofincentives

affectingthediplomacy.Nixonwaslessontopofthetacticalsituation,buthehad

afinesenseofpublicstrategy—orthoughthedid.Hewasconvincedthata

televisionspeechwouldbefutile.Ifhewasright,Isawnowayofsustainingan

effectivenegotiatingstrategy;foronlythefearofresumedmilitaryoperations

wouldkeepHanoioncourse.Wewouldsurelybewhipsawed.Inanyevent,I

opposedreactionstakenoutofpiquethatwouldunsettle thepublicmood

withoutofferingprospectsofsuccess. 



IrepliedtoNixonthatIthoughtitprematuretoincreasethereadinessof

ourforces,thatthereshouldbenobombingwhilethetalksweregoingon,and

thatareturntoWashingtonafteronlyonedayofnegotiatio nwouldheightena

senseofcrisisthatwouldplayintoHanoi’shands.Suicidally,Irepeatedmy

recommendationthatifthetalksbrokeofforrecessed,hewouldhavetogoon

televisiontoexplainit.InthebestNixonstyle,Haldemanwasdeputizedto 

overruleme.AhighlyunusualmessagefromtheWhiteHouseChiefofStaffmade 

explicitwhatNixononlyhintedat.Ifthetalksstalemated,Haldemansuggested,

theyshouldberecessedratherthanbrokenoff.InthatcaseIwastogivealow‐

keybriefing.Heofferednoclueastohowtogivea“low‐key”briefingonthe

collapseofVietnampeaceefforts.



Nixonmayhavebeenrightinhisjudgmentthattherewasnopublicopinion

lefttorally;ifso,andifHanoisharedthejudgment,thenegotiationswere

doomedandprolongingthetalkswasuseless.OnDecember6Irepliedto

Haldeman:



ThankyouforyourmessageofDecember5.Wehadbetterfacethefactsoflife.Ifthere

isnoagreementinthenext48hours,wemaybeabletopretendthatthetalksareinrecess

longenoughtopermitmetogiveabriefingaftermyreturn.Butsoonafter,therewillbeno

waytokeepeitheroftheVietnamesepartiesfrommakingthestalemateevident.Furthermore

ifweresumeall‐outbombingthiswillbeevenmoretrue.Thusintheeventofastalematewe

haveonlytwochoices:toyieldortorallyAmericansupportforonemoreeffortwhichIdonot

believetheNorthVietnamesecanwithstand.IfwearetoattempttorallytheAmericanpeople

onlythePresidentcanadequatelydothateventually.ButifitisyourjudgmentthatIshouldgo

onfirst,Iwillofcoursebegladtoattemptit.WecanthendiscussthePresident’spossible

involvementlater.



BeforemynextmeetingwithLeDucTho,Moscow repliedtoourmessage.

TheKremlincounseledpatience,expressedconfidenceinHanoi’sdesirefor

peace,andassuredus—forty‐eighthoursafterLeDucTho—thattheNorth

VietnamesewerestillreadytosignanagreementwithintheOctoberframework.

DobryninaddedprivatelythatMoscowwasintouchwithHanoiandthathe

recommendedIkeepthetalks goingtogivetheKremlinmoretimetomakeits

influencefelt.



MymeetingwithLeDucThoonDecember6broughtnochange.Bothsides

reviewedtheirpositions.Therewassometinkeringwithindividualclauses,but

weweresimplytreadingwater.ThebestproofofHanoi’sreluctancetosettlewas

LeDucTho’scontinuingrefusalto permitameetingoftheexpertstonegotiate

thedetailedprotocolsevenonprovisionsnotindispute.LeDucThosaidthey

were“studyingourdocuments”andtheirswerenotready.Hence,nomatter

whatheandIdecided,itcouldnotbeimplementeduntiltheexpertshad

concludedatasktheNorthVietnameserefusedtobegin.Weagreedtomakea

finaleffortthenextday,December7;eachsideshouldpresentitsminimum

position.Itwasavaingloriousmaneuver,almostboundtofail,forittemptedeach

sidetoawaittheconcessionsoftheother.ItoldthePresidentwhatIplannedto

giveasourrock‐bottomposition,andIwarnedofwhatwewouldfaceevenif

therewerealast‐minutebreakthrough:



AsIhaveconsistentlytoldyousincemid‐September,thisisaveryhigh‐riskoperation.

Theeventualoutcomeofanysettlementwillessentiallyturnontheconfidenceandpolitical

performanceofthetwosides.Havingseenthetotalhatredandpathologicaldistrustbetween

theVietnameseparties,andknowingaswellthatHanoihasnointentionofgivingupits

strategicobjectives,wemustfacetherealitythatthisagreementmaylackthefoundationof

minimumtrustthatmaybeneeded.Thusitcouldwellbreakdown.Itwillcertainlyrequirefrom

usapostureofconstantreadinessandwillingnesstointervenetokeepHanoianditsSouth

Vietnamesealliesfromnibblingattheedges…



HaigsimultaneouslyalertedtheVicePresidenttobereadytoleavefor

Saigonifthereshouldbeabreakthroughthenextday.



Nixon’sreplydirectedmetoopenthenextmeetingwithaseriesof

questionsmuchinthestyleofaprosecutingattorney,totrytopinHanoitoa

seriesofintransigentpositionstostrengthentherecordincasethetalksshould

recessorbreakup.IwasthentoinviteHanoitomakeitsfinaloffer.

Nixon’s

approachhadmerit,thoughIthoughthevastlyoverratedmyabilitytopindown

LeDucThotounambiguousanswers.I hadadifferentviewofthetactics,whichI

communicatedtoNixon.Mystifftonecouldbesaidtoreflectacertainlackof

spontaneouswarmthintherelationshipbetweenPresidentandadviser:



ThankyouforyourmessageofDecember6.Yourinstructionsareunderstoodandwill

befollowed.However,Ibelievethetacticalsequenceincarryingthemoutshouldbedifferent.

Atthisafternoon’ssessionIwillfirstpushforHanoi’sacceptanceofourminimumposition

whichyouapproved(Option1).IfLeDucThorejectsthispositionIwillasktheseriesof

questionsyouhavelistedinthefirstparagraphofyourmessagetomeincludingtheoneabout

withdrawal.IwillthenaskforarecesstoenablemetoreturntoWashingtonandconsultwith

you,followingwhichwewillbeintouchwiththemnextweekonwhentoresume.Ibelieveit

wouldbeaseriousmistaketolaunchtoday’ssessionwiththequestionssincethisprocess

wouldbelikelytoresultinanoutrightrejectionandplaceusinastalematedpositionatthe

outsetofthesession.



IcouldpictureNixon,cutofffromthemostknowledgeablesenioradvisers,

allofwhom(includingHaig)werewithme.Hewouldruminate,writingoutthe

issuesonhisyellow pad,allthewhileshoweredwiththeadviceofhispublic

relationsgeniuses.RichardKennedy,whowasholdingthefortforme,thoughnot

anexpertonVietnam,wasmeticulousandprecise.IhadaskedHaigonDecember

7tosendhimasummaryofthesituationsohecouldexertasteadyinginfluence.

ThePRtemptationtoevadeadmittingthattherewasadeadlock,Iwasconvinced,

wouldmakeitmuchharderlatertomanagethenownearlyinevitable recessof

thetalks.Paradoxically,Hanoiwaslikelytomakeitsfinalconcessionsonlyifitwas

convincedthatwewerewillingto riskfailureandtaketheconsequences.Noone

hadmoretolosefromsuchaneventualitythantheauthorof“peaceisathand.”

Buttherewasnowayofhidingadeadlockindefinitely,nochanceofovercoming

itifwewerenotwillingto braveitsimplications.Haig’smessagetoKennedy,in

hisbestArmyprose,readinpart:



Henryrecognizesthatyouhavebeeninadifficultpositionthisweekandthereforefelt

youshouldhavethebenefitofhispersonalviewsonthesituationasitnowstands.Iwould

emphasizethathisexperiencewiththePresidentduringcrisisperiodsconfirmsthefactthat

mostofthePresident’scounselintheabsenceofDr.Kissingerwouldcomefromelements

withintheWhiteHousewhoseorientationandbackgroundwouldcausethemtofocus

primarilyonpublicrelationsconsiderationswhich,whileperfectlyunderstandable,canleavea

serioussubstantivegapduringvitaldeliberations…You,ofcourse,mustbethesolesourceof

substantivecounsel.Henryhopesthatyouwillnotmakeanyotherkindofassessmentsorjoin

inanycomments[on]Congressionalattitudesorpublicopinionwhichareavailabletothe

Presidentfrompeoplewhosetasksarepreciselythat.Yourcounselmustthereforealwaysbein

termsofnationalsecuritysubstance.Inthiscontextitisnowevidentthatwewillneedsome

timetopositionthepublicopinionathomeintheeventthetalksbreakdown.Butthereisno

needtoallowtheseconsiderationstoaffectourstrategyvis‐a‐visHanoi.Hanoihasknownfor

sometimewhattheissuesareandwhatminimumneedsofourstheymustmeet.Thequestion

issimply:cantheybringthemselvestodoso?Tacticalploysfromoursideindicatingthatwe

areinclinedtoavoidfacinguptothefactoftheirintransigencecanonlymakemattersworse

andtheirresolvetohangtoughevenfirmer…



Hanoiknowsexactlywhattheyhavetodo.Iftheymeetourminimumdemandsthe

managementoftheagreementitselfisgoingtotakethemostdeterminedanddecisive

Presidentialleadershiptoenforceanagreementwhichwearenowconvincedbothsideswill

enterintowithaminimumofgoodwill.If,ontheotherhand,thetalksbreakdownbecause

Hanoicouldnotevenacceptourminimumdemands,thereislittledoubtthatwecansucceed

onlyasaresultofthemostcourageousanddeterminednationalleadershipwhichisnot

dominatedbyPRconsiderationsbutratherthesamerealisticassessmentsofthenational

interestwhichhavebroughtustothispoint…



Thefour‐hourmeetingonDecember7suggestedthatthebasicproblem

waspreciselyHanoi’scontinuedprocrastination.Hanoi’sapparentcalculationwas

thatthelapseoftimecouldonlyimproveitsposition;thatwewerehopelessly

cornered.Thoughthiswasnotapparentrightawayandwecontinuedtoclingto

thehopethata“concession”heraldedabreakthrough,thefactwasthat

December7markedthebeginningoftherealdeadlock.LeDucThochangedhis

stylesomewhat.Heabandonedtheobviousstonewallingoftheprevioussessions.

Hestartedgivingsomeground—butalwaysmadesuretokeeptheconclusionof

thetextjustoutofreach.Headamantlyrefusedtoallowtheexpertstodiscuss

theprotocols;thisgavehimanothermeanstopreventaconclusionandalso

addedasurrealisticabstractnesstothemainnegotiations.Andabullyingtone

creptintohispresentations,indicatingthathethoughtHanoiwasgainingthe

upperhandpsychologically.



LeDucTho’s“concessions”wereofapeculiarkind.Onthefirstdayhehad

renegedonnineofthetwelvechangeshehadagreedtoinNovember;henow

gavebacksix;healsodroppedthecrucialdemandforthereleaseofcivilian

prisonersinSouthVietnam(whichHanoihadconcededinlateOctoberand

renegedoninNovember).Ontheotherhand,heraisedominousconcernsonthe

DMZprovision.InNovemberhehadacceptedanimportantchangestrengthening

theobligationtorespecttheDemilitarized Zoneasthedemarcationlinebetween

NorthandSouthVietnam.LeDucThonowwantedasentencetotheeffectthat

NorthandSouthVietnamwoulddiscussthelegalstatusoftheDMZ.Thishadthe

effect,asIrepeatedtoNixon,of“placingintoquestionthewholestatusofthe

DMZ,”nottomentionthebanoninfiltration.Thenumberofunsettledissuesin

theagreementwassomewhatsmallerthanthedaybefore,butwehadnotyet

recoveredalltheNovemberconcessionsthatLeDucThohadretractedfourdays

earlier.IwascorrectincablingNixonthatwemightwellachieveoneortwoof

ourminimumadditionsinanothersession,butitwasalsotruethatthiswas

preciselywhereLeDucThowantedus:tantalizinglycloseenoughtoan

agreementtokeepusgoingandpreventusfromusingmilitaryforce,butfar

enoughawaytomaintainthepressurethatmightyetatthelastmomentachieve

Hanoi’sobjectivesofdisintegratingthepoliticalstructureinSaigon.Iwasmore

andmoreconcernedaboutthewholecontextoftheagreement.AsIreportedto

Nixon:



ItisnowobviousastheresultofouradditionalexplorationofHanoi’sintentionsthat

theyhavenotinanywayabandonedtheirobjectivesorambitionswithrespecttoSouth

Vietnam.Whattheyhavedoneisdecidetomodifytheirstrategybymovingfromconventional

andmainforcewarfaretoapoliticalandinsurgencystrategywithintheframeworkofthedraft

agreement.