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9.7 Valuation in an Incomplete Market 549
It can be proved that there exists, at least in markets with continuous
asset prices, a Radon-Nikod´ym density L
qh
which does not depend on the
choice of H such that v = E
P
(e
−rT
HL
qh
). Despite this explicit solution to
the original question, again practitioners dislike this criterion, which gives the
same weight for losses and gains of V relative to H. There are also asymmetric
criteria, but then the mathematical theory is more involved and results are
less explicit. We refer to the book of F¨ollmer and Schied [350] for a complete
study.
In the case of weather derivatives, or in a default risk setting, an interesting
question is the measurability criteria for the strategies. Indeed, even if the
market is incomplete, it is possible to include the information about the
weather or on the default in the choice of the portfolio (see Bielecki et al.
[89] in the case of credit risk).
9.7.2 Choice of an Equivalent Martingale Measure
This method consists in the choice of an equivalent martingale measure (or a
state price density) in an appropriate way. One possibility is to minimize
E
P
(f(L
T
)) over the set of Radon-Nikod´ym densities for a given convex
function f. However, the solution depends on the choice of num´eraire. We
now present two different, but classical, choices of convex functions.
Minimal Entropy Measure: f(x)=x ln x
Let P and Q be two equivalent probability measures. The relative entropy of
Q w.r.t. P corresponds to the choice f (x)=x ln x and is
H(Q|P)=E
Q
ln
dQ
dP
= E
P
dQ
dP
ln
dQ
dP
. (9.7.1)
Let S denote the value of the asset and M
P
S
the set of e.m.m’s. Any
probability Q
∗
such that
i) Q
∗
∈M
P
S
ii) ∀Q ∈M
P
S
,H(Q
∗
|P) ≤ H(Q|P)
is called a minimal entropy measure. See Choulli and Stricker [182], Delbaen
et al. [231], Frittelli [362], Frittelli et al. [364], Hobson [441] and Miyahara
[654] for a complete study. In Rouge and El Karoui [310], the authors provide
a general framework for pricing contingent claims, using a BSDE approach.