238 PASSAGES OF PRODUCTION
rules over the intentions and resistances, the defeats and the victories, the
joys and the suffering of humans. Or worse, it makes human actions dance
to the rhythm of the cyclical structures.
Giovanni Arrighi adopted the methodology of long cycles to write
a rich and fascinating analysis of ‘‘the long twentieth century.’’
2
The
book is focused primarily on understanding how the crisis of United States
hegemony and accumulation in the 1970s (indicated, for example, by
the decoupling of the dollar from the gold standard in 1971 and by the
defeat of the U.S. military in Vietnam) is a fundamental turning point in
the history of world capitalism. In order to approach the contemporary
passage, however, Arrighi believes that we need to step back and situate
this crisis in the long history of cycles of capitalist accumulation. Following
the methodology of Fernand Braudel, Arrighi constructs an enormous histori-
cal and analytical apparatus of four great systemic cycles of capitalist accumula-
tion, four ‘‘long centuries,’’ that situate the United States in line after the
Genoese, the Dutch, and the British.
This historical perspective leads Arrighi to demonstrate how everything
returns, or specifically how capitalism always returns. The crisis of the
1970s, then, is really nothing new. What is happening to the capitalist
system led by the United States today happened to the British one hundred
years ago, to the Dutch before them, and earlier to the Genoese. The crisis
indicated a passage, which is the turning point in every systemic cycle of
accumulation, from a first phase of material expansion (investment in produc-
tion) to a second phase of financial expansion (including speculation). This
passage toward financial expansion, which Arrighi claims has characterized
the U.S. economy since the early 1980s, always has an autumnal character;
it signals the end of a cycle. It indicates specifically the end of U.S. hegemony
over the world capitalist system, because the end of each long cycle always
indicates a geographical shift of the epicenter of systemic processes of capital
accumulation. ‘‘Shifts of this kind,’’ he writes, ‘‘have occurred in all the
crises and financial expansions that have marked the transition from one
systemic cycle of accumulation to another.’’
3
Arrighi claims that the United
States has passed the torch to Japan to lead the next long cycle of capital-
ist accumulation.
We are not interested in discussing whether or not Arrighi is right to
advance this hypothesis about the decline of the United States and the rise