256 Russell R. Menard
England or the northern colonies. This distinct marriage pattern led to
larger numbers of children and played the main role in the high southern
growth rates. As contemporaries often explained, these "more general, and
more generally early" marriages were rooted in colonial prosperity, espe-
cially in the "liberal reward of labour," the abundance of land, and the
consequent "Ease and Convenience of supporting a
Family.
"*
By combining data on population size with estimates of per capita
income, it is possible to chart the size of the economy in that part of the
South that joined the American independence movement. Based on a
careful analysis of probate records, Alice Hanson Jones concluded that
per capita income in the South in 1774 ranged between £10.4 and
£12.1 sterling, or $1,145
to
I
1
.332 in 1990 dollars. Given a population
of 1.12 million and using the midpoint of Jones' range yields a gross
product for the South in 1775 of $1,387 billion (1990 dollars). With an
assumption about rates of productivity gain, it is possible to chart the
growth of the southern economy from the mid-seventeenth century to
the end of the colonial era. Table 6.2 performs such a calculation,
assuming that per capita incomes rose at 0.5 percent annually over the
125 years following 1650, a rate near the midpoint of the range for that
period suggested by recent scholarship. Under that assumption, per
capita income in the South was roughly $660 in 1650 and $935 in
1720.
In the aggregate, the economy expanded at a rate of 4.2 percent
annually over the entire period, 3.7 percent in the years following 1720.
That is an impressive performance by any standard. For the early modern
era, when stagnation and decline were more common than growth and
when even the highly successful English economy grew at only 0.5
percent per year, it is remarkable.
To a large extent, southern prosperity rested on the performance of the
export sector, especially of the major plantation crops
—
tobacco, rice, and
indigo. Together, those three crops accounted for about three-quarters of
the value of all exports from the South on the eve of the Revolution and
roughly 40 percent of the value of exports from all of Britain's continental
colonies. In per capita terms, southern exports averaged about £1.8 ster-
ling per year at the end of the colonial period, roughly twice the level
achieved by New England and the Middle Colonies. If attention is con-
fined to the free population, which, after all, controlled the resulting
' Benjamin Franklin, "Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries,
etc."
(1751), in Leonard W. Labaree et al., eds., The
Papers
of Benjamin Franklin (New Haven, CT:
I959-).
IV, 228; Smith, Wealth ofNationi, II, 565.
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