He hopes that his work will help in the dark days that he foresees:
-
When the world experiences a complete overturn it seems to change
its nature in order to permit new creation and a new organization.
Hence there is need today of an historian who can describe the state
of the world, of its countries and peoples, and indicate the changes
in customs and beliefs. `063059
-
He devotes some proud pages to pointing out the errors of some
historians. They lost themselves, he feels, in the mere chronicling of
events, and rarely rose to the elucidation of causes and effects. They
accepted fable almost as readily as fact, gave exaggerated statistics,
and explained too many things by supernatural agency. As for
himself, he proposes to rely entirely on natural factors in explaining
events. He will judge the statements of historians by the present
experience of mankind, and will reject any alleged occurrence that
would now be accounted impossible. Experience must judge
tradition. `063060 His own method, in the Muqaddama, is first to
deal with the philosophy of history; then with professions,
occupations, and crafts; then with the history of science and art.
In succeeding volumes he gives the political history of the various
nations, taking them one by one, deliberately sacrificing the unity of
time to that of place. The true subject of history, says
Ibn-Khaldun, is civilization: how it arises, how it is maintained, how
it develops letters, sciences, and arts, and why it decays. `063061
Empires, like individuals, have a life and trajectory which are
their own. They grow, they mature, they decline. `063062 What are
the causes of this sequence?
The basic conditions of the sequence are geographical. Climate
exercises a general but basic influence. The cold north eventually
produces, even in peoples of southern origin, a white skin, light
hair, blue eyes, and a serious disposition; the tropics produce in
time a dark skin, black hair, "dilatation of the animal spirits,"
lightness of mind, gaiety, quick transports of pleasure, leading to
song and dance. `063063 Food affects character: a heavy diet of meats,
condiments, and grains begets heaviness of body and mind, and quick
succumbing to famine or infection; a light diet, such as desert