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transmission of the disease. Building upon this idea, we next consider a more complex
habitat with several separated urban areas fJJ,
• • • ,
0£ surrounded by a rural environment
Q
—
U;=i ^X- Finally, we are lead to the consideration of a complex region consisting of
repeated fragmented local structure. Such a scenario would be exhibited by regions found
in developped areas like western Europe, Japan or perhaps New England where one en-
counters a highly heterogeneous landscape consisting of repetitively interspersed fields,
forests and small villages. At first glance, it appears as though this is covered by case
above. However, from a practical point of view we are more interested in how the complex
microstructure of the region affects the general macroscopic progression of the infection
through the region. If we formulate this question in mathematiccd terms we can obtain a
partial answer by implementing homogenization arguments.
Ordinary differential equations have been used to model the circulation of disease
through populations begining with the 19th century. Murray [18], and Busenberg and
Cooke [3], have excellent monographs detailing the state of the art of this activity.
Dif-
fusive epidemic models have become widely structured in the past two decades. The
interested reader is referred to [4], [8] and the references contained therein. Differen-
tial equations involving diffusion operators with discontinuous coefficients were originally
termed diffractive and were used to model neutron transport in reactor engineering. The
literature on this subject is incomplete but the reader is referred to [16]; see also [4], [20]
[22],
[23], [24]. Homogenization techniques were introduced in the late seventies and they
have proved useful in the modeling of composite materials, in macroscopic properties of
crystaline or polymer structures, and the description of aqueous and hydrocarbons flow
through porous materials (cf. [2] and [15]).
We set the stage by describing the basic underlying epidemiological kinetics. We
use the state variables u and v to denote susceptible and infective classes of individuals.
We model the transfer from the susceptibles to the infectives with an incidence term
f(u,
v) = kuv where k > 0 is a positive constant. The resulting system of differential
equations has the form
u = —kuv, v = kuv; w(0) = u
0
, v(0) =
VQ.
(1)
Standard techniques yield (cf [8]) the following result.
Theorem 1.1 Ifu
0
and
VQ
are nonnegative initial data then
lim u(t) = 0 and lim v(t) = w
0
+ v
0
.
t—*oo
t—*oo
Thus we totally answer questions of wellposedness, characterize forward invariant re-
gions and define the long term behavior of solutions. From the viewpoint of qualitative
dynamics this is certainly an unsurprising result, and from an epidemiological view point
it simply says that the whole population contracts a non fatal disease. There certainly
are much more complex models with much more complicated and exotic qualitative be-
havior. However, our purpose at hand is not to describe complex realistic disease kinetics
but rather to describe how spatial considerations may be introduced to epidemiological
modeling.