274 7 Simulating Biochemical Systems
can be computationally very expensive. Given that the states of individual molecules
are effectively indistinguishable from each other at the level of the model, represent-
ing each molecule distinctly is questionably detailed.
Gillespie [20] formulated an approach that was designed for systems with rela-
tively low numbers of the individual molecules of interest within a perfectly mixed
chemical volume, treating different molecular species en masse rather than individ-
ually. His formulation was derived from an analysis of the “collision probability per
time unit” of two reactive molecules within a perfectly mixed volume in thermal
equilibrium. Collisions between molecules of interest lead to reactions which then
discretely alter the numbers of reactant and product molecular species.
Rather than having a deterministic reaction rate constant (k
i
) for a reaction, Gille-
spie associated each with a stochastic reaction constant, c
i
, representing the proba-
bility that a particular pair of reactant molecules would react in the next infinitesimal
time interval. By combining c
i
with the number of possible combinations of pairs
of those reactant molecules (h
i
) at a particular time then the probability of that
reaction taking place within the next time interval can be calculated. Given a set
of reactions, the task of simulation becomes to repeatedly identify which reaction
is most likely to occur next and when. The stochastic nature of a reaction system
means that these two questions should be answered probabilistically. As numbers
of reactant molecules change through reactions occurring, so do the probabilities of
other reactions. This probabilistic element means that the results from using Gille-
spie’s approach naturally have the desirable deviations from the smooth results of
deterministic approaches, which are unrealistic when relatively small numbers of
molecules of the species of interest are involved. Figure 7.1 outlines the basic sim-
ulation steps of one of Gillespie’s formulations of this approach.
The probability of any particular reaction occurring next is dependent on the
stochastic reaction constant values of all the reactions in the system, as well as on
the numbers of all of the different reactant molecules. This can be seen from the
probability density function for a reaction i, which is:
P(τ,i)=a
i
exp(−a
0
τ) (7.1)
This is the probability at time t that i will be the next reaction to occur, and that it
will occur between time (t +τ) and time (t +τ +δτ), where δτ is an infinitesimal
time interval, a
i
=h
i
c
i
, a
0
=
M
i=1
a
i
, and M is the number of reactions. The value
a
i
is usually referred to as the propensity of reaction i.Ifμ is the next reaction to
occur then no reaction takes place between the current time t and time t +τ .
Using this formulation, Gillespie described two methods for providing the an-
swers to the two questions posed above: identifying the next reaction, μ and when
it would occur, t +τ . These are known as the direct method and the first reaction
method.
7.1.1 Gillespie’s Direct Method
In the direct method, the probability density function, along with a pair of random
numbers from the unit interval, are used to generate the answers to the two questions