NDE Reliability Data Analysis
Alan P. Berens, University of Dayton Research Institute
Introduction
INSPECTION SYSTEMS are inevitably driven to their extreme capability for finding small flaws. When applied at this
extreme, not all flaws of the same size will be detected. In fact, repeat inspections of the same flaw will not necessarily
produce consistent hit or miss indications, and different flaws of the same size may have different detection probabilities.
Because of this uncertainty in the inspection process, capability is characterized in terms of the probability of detection
(POD) as a function of flaw size, a. At present, the function POD(a) can be estimated only through inspection reliability
experiments on specimens containing flaws of known size. Further, statistical methods must be used to estimate the
parameters of the POD(a) function and to quantify the experimental error in the estimated capability.
The methods for analyzing NDE reliability data have undergone a considerable evolution since the middle of the 1970s.
Formerly, a constant probability of detection of all flaws of a given size was postulated, and binomial distribution
methods were used to estimate this probability and its lower confidence bound (Ref 1, 2). This nonparametric method of
analysis produced valid statistical estimates for a single flaw size, but required very large sample sizes to obtain
reasonable lower confidence bounds on the probability of detection. In the absence of large numbers of representative
specimens with equal flaw sizes, various methods were devised for analyzing data based on grouping schemes. Although
the resulting POD appeared more acceptable using these schemes, the lower confidence bounds were no longer valid.
In recent years, an approach based on the assumption of a model for the POD(a) function was devised (Ref 3, 4, 5, 6, 7).
Analyses of data from reliability experiments on nondestructive inspection (NDI) methods indicated that the POD(a)
function can be reasonably modeled by the cumulative log normal distribution function or, equivalently, the log-logistics
(log odds) function. The parameters of these functions can be estimated using maximum likelihood methods. The
statistical uncertainty in the estimate of NDI reliability has traditionally been reflected by a lower (conservative)
confidence bound on the POD(a) function. The asymptotic statistical properties of the maximum likelihood estimates can
be used to calculate this confidence bound. Details of the mathematics for these maximum likelihood calculations are
presented in this article.
References
1.
B.G.W. Yee, F.H. Chang, J.C. Couchman, G.H. Lemon, and P.F. Packman, "Assessm
Data," NASA CR-134991, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Oct 1976
2.
W.D. Rummel, Recommended Practice for Demonstration of Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Reliability
on Aircraft Production Parts, Mater. Eng., Vol 40, Aug 1982, p 922-932
3.
W.H. Lewis, W.H. Sproat, B.D. Dodd, and J.M. Hamilton, "Reliability of Nondestructive Inspections--
Report," SA-ALC/MME 76-6-38-1, San Antonio Air Logistics Center, Kelly Air Force Base, Dec 1978
4.
A.P. Berens and P.W. Hovey, "Evaluation of NDE Reliability Characterization," AFWAL-TR-81-
1, Air Force Wright-Aeronautical Laboratories, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Dec 1981
5.
A.P. Berens and P.W. Hovey, Statistical Methods for Estimating Crack Detection Probabiliti
Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics and Fatigue Methods: Applications for Structural Design and
Maintenance,
STP 798, J.M. Bloom and J.C. Ekvall, Ed., American Society for Testing and Materials, 1983,
p 79-94
6.
D.E. Allison et al., "Cost/Risk Analysis for Disk Retirement--Volume I," AFWAL-TR-83-
Wright-Aeronautical Laboratories, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Feb 1984
7.
A.P. Berens and P.W. Hovey, "Flaw Detection Reliability Criteria, Volume I--
AFWAL-TR-84-4022, Air Force Wright-Aeronautical Laboratories, Wright-
Patterson Air Force Base, April
1984