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ENGINE YEARBOOK 2005
ENGINE YEARBOOK 2005
traders started to put engines into
maintenance, a practice unheard of over
the previous two years. Values started
to climb and by the end of the second
quarter of 2004 JT8D-15 values crept
back to levels just below $500,000 for
freshly overhauled engines.
When trying to understand values for
newer engine types, it is important to
realise that the value drivers in today’s
market are not dissimilar to those of
previous engine markets. Supply and
demand are obvious, but utility, reduced
interchangeability, noise and emissions
and aircraft volatility are probably more
important when considering value.
The utility of an engine is the key to
understanding its value. At some point
the OEMs decided to introduce design
changes to engines that limited their
application to particular aircraft types.
One example is GE’s CF6-80C2 engine.
Although the same core engine is used to
power Boeing, Douglas and Airbus aircraft
there are some distinctive external
differences, one of which is the data plate
and that prohibits interchangeability
between the aircraft types. The cost of
converting an engine from one standard to
another for use on different aircraft types
is prohibitive.
A good example of this is the CF6-
80C2D1F. After September 11 the MD-11,
powered by the CF6-80C2D1F, seemed to
fall quickly out of favour. This was caused
by many different factors, but the most
obvious were MD-11 operators cutting
capacity and the bankruptcy of Swissair.
The aircraft was valued too highly for
parting-out and there was no secondary
market for the CF6-80C2D1F engine, as it
is specific to the aircraft type. This caused
the value of the engines to drop
dramatically. Freshly overhauled engines
that traded in 2000 for over $6 million
were trading in the mid-$3 million range.
Another variable affecting value is
emissions and noise regulations, a truly
double-edged sword. The JT8D has
been most significantly affected in this
regard and more recently it appeared
that the -200 series is likely to be the
next to be affected by government
regulators when they initiated a
programme to further decrease
permissible emissions and noise levels.
This has resulted in the JT8D-200 series
engines falling by 50 to 75 per cent.
CFM saw the tightening of emissions
and noise regulations to be an
opportunity and developed its so-called
‘green engine’. This engine was built
with a dual annular combustor (DAC) to
decrease emissions far below of the
proposed lower limits. Unfortunately,
the industry did not embrace the
innovation and the values of such
engines reflect this lack of enthusiasm.
In recent CFM56-5 DAC engine
transactions, offers for these nearly-new
engines have demonstrated a 30 per cent
value decrease over the OEM catalogue
price; for an engine with just a few
thousand cycles of operation since new!
Aircraft value volatility is perhaps the
most tangible of all engine value
drivers. In simple terms, if aircraft are
out of favour then so are their engines.
In 2002, there were over 100 CFM56-3-
powered B737s in storage worldwide.
Aircraft and engine values fell to all-
time lows. It seemed that these aircraft
fell out of favour because of the sheer
size of the surplus introduced by
United Airlines and US Airways when
they sought bankruptcy protection.
This caused CFM56-3 engine values to
plummet; parting-out companies to go
into an acquisition frenzy; and asset
owners and operators to struggle to
minimise book losses.
In 2002 a mid-life CFM56-3 could be
purchased for less than $2 million
(closer to $1.6 million) and there was no
shortage of sellers. By mid-2003 B737
aircraft started to be redeployed and an
immediate need for engines emerged.
Then in 2004, when Federal Express
announced its intention to convert up
to 150 B737 classics to freighters, the
market immediately bounced back.
Engines that were previously selling for
$1.6 million are now selling for $2.2
million and the price is still climbing.
Whether values are driven by supply
and demand, utility, reduced
interchangeability, noise and emissions
or aircraft volatility, the basics of the
market remain the same. If all variables
remained the same, price would be
driven by competition within the
market. Events such as September 11
simply accelerate the inevitable; they
do not drive the market long-term.
Longer-term changes in engine values
will ultimately be affected by the
introduction of new technology that
changes the way the market operates.
The latest innovation by Boeing is
the 7E7 which is a stage-flexible
aircraft that will produce 20 per cent
less emissions at a variety of engine
thrust ratings. There is a choice of
engines - those manufactured by Rolls-
Royce and those made by GE but, for
the first time, they are made physically
interchangeable (in pairs, with the
assistance of some software). The 7E7
therefore removes two engine value
variables as compared with today’s
engines; but will new factors come into
the reckoning as this new technology
is introduced, or will we simply adjust
the goal posts again? ■
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