LINEAR MODELS OF DIFFUSION 243
6.1.2
Probability and finance
Diffusion equations can also be obtained from `random walk' or `Brownian motion'
models. A very simple derivation of the one-dimensional equation is as follows; it
is similar to the proof-reading model of §1.1. Suppose that, at a time t, some
particles occupy the lattice sites x = 0, ±k,..., and that the concentration c(x, t)
is defined to be the expected number of particles at the site at x at time t. Over
the next time step, say of length h, any one particle can move to the right or left,
both with probability p, or remain at its present position, with probability 1 - 2p.
The new expected number at x is
c(x, t + h) = pc(x - k, t) + (1 - 2p)c(x, t) + pc(x + k, t), (6.6)
so that
c(x,t + h) - c(x,t) = p(c(x + k,t) - 2c(x,t) + c(x - k,t)).
(6.7)
Taking the step size and lattice separation to be small, and expanding in Taylor
series about (x, t), with kz/h = D/p, we recover the heat equation
at =
D02C
x. (6.8)
This is reassuring because heat conduction comes about through the random agi-
tation of certain modes of oscillation of atoms. If the probabilities of moving left
and right had been different from each other, there would have been a drift term
proportional to Oc/Ox, as in the one-dimensional form of (6.3).
In a similar vein, financial modelling also gives rise to parabolic equations.
Suppose we consider an option, which is a contract giving its holder the right (but
not the obligation) to buy (or sell) some asset, such as a number of stock-market
shares, at some specified time, say T, when the exercise price, a previously agreed
sum of money E, is paid for the asset. Suppose the underlying asset is a share
which is expected to gain in value in 0 < t < T, but whose price is subject to
unpredictable fluctuations. Suppose we buy an option instead of the share; we can
gain if the share rises but, on the other hand, we may lose all our money if the
share falls, since there is no point in paying E for something which costs less than
that in the market. However, we can `hedge' the option position by setting up a
`portfolio' of the option and a certain number of shares, trying to use the share
holding to protect ourselves against unpredictability. As we now see, this process
allows us to calculate the value V(S, t) of the option to buy a share at time T
as a function of the current time t and the asset value S. We suppose we have a
cash balance M, and we hold a number A, which may vary in time, of the assets.
Thus, having bought one option, the portfolio value is P = M + Si + V. The
cash balance accrues interest at a rate r, say; it also changes when we buy or sell
assets and so, in a short time dt, we receive rMdt in interest and spend -S dA
on assets. In the same time, the asset price changes by dS and the option value
by dV, so the overall change in the portfolio is
dP=rMdt-SdA+SdA+AdS+dV = rM dt + A dS + dV.