464 13. Biological Waves: Single-Species Models
Figure 13.10. If A
1
> A
3
the wave
velocity c is negative and the outbreak,
where u = u
3
, is reduced. If A
1
< A
3
the
outbreak spreads into the refuge region
where u = u
1
.
area. In this case we say that u
3
is dominant; that is, as t →∞, u → u
3
everywhere.
On the other hand if A
3
< A
1
, c < 0andu
1
is dominant and u → u
1
as t →∞;that
is, the outbreak is eliminated.
From the point of view of infestation control, if an insect outbreak occurs and is
spreading, we want to know how to alter the local conditions so that the infestation or
outbreak wave is either contained or reversed. From the above, we must thus locally
change the budworm growth dynamics so that effectively the new areas A
1
and A
3
in Figure 13.10 satisfy A
1
> A
3
. We can achieve this is if the zeros u
2
and u
3
of
f (u), that is, the two largest steady states, are closer together. From Figure 13.7(b)
we see that this can be effected by reducing the dimensionless parameter q in (13.71).
The nondimensionalisation used in the budworm model (see Section 1.2 in Chapter 1)
relates q to the basic budworm carrying capacity K
B
of the environment. So a practical
reduction in q could be made by, for example, spraying a strip to reduce the carrying
capacity of the tree foliage. In this way an infestation ‘break’ would be created, that is,
one in which u
1
is dominant, and hence the wavespeed c in the above analysis is no
longer positive. A practical question, of course, is how wide such a ‘break’ must be to
stop the outbreak getting through. This problem needs careful modelling consideration
since there is a long leading edge, because of the parabolic (diffusion-like) character
of the equations, albeit with 0 < u 1. A closely related concept will be discussed
in detail in Chapter 13, Volume II when the problem of containing the spread of rabies
is considered. The methodology described there is directly applicable to the ‘break’
problem here for containing the spread of the budworm infestation.
Exact Solution for the Wavespeed for an Excitable Kinetics Model:
Calcium-Stimulated-Calcium-Release Mechanism
In Chapter 6 we briefly described possible kinetics, namely, equation (6.120), which
models a biochemical switch. With such a mechanism, a sufficiently large perturba-
tion from one steady state can move the system to another steady state. An impor-
tant example which arises experimentally is known as the calcium-stimulated-calcium-
release mechanism. This is a process whereby calcium, Ca
++
, if perturbed above a
given threshold concentration, causes the further release, or dumping, of the sequestered
calcium; that is, the system moves to another steady state. This happens, for example,
from calcium sites on the membrane enclosing certain fertilised amphibian eggs (the
next section deals with one such real example). As well as releasing calcium, such a
membrane also resequesters it. If we denote the concentration of Ca
++
by u, we can
model the kinetics by the rate law