Murphy Martin. Small Boats, Weak States, Dirty Money. Piracy & Maritime Terrorism in the Modern World
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assessing the threat
east Asia, anywhere from Mindanao in the philippines through the Indo-
nesian archipelago to Sumatra, and across to southern ailand.
101
With
regard to the Arabian peninsula, the contributor to the jihadist website
mentioned above makes the point that Yemen and the horn of Africa “rep-
resents a strategic point to expel the enemy from the most important pillars
of its battle.” e success that Somali pirates had achieved in hijacking ves-
sels is noted and the implication that is drawn is that “the area is beyond
the control of the arsenal of the Crusader Zionist campaign.”
102
Southeast
Asia is an area of porous borders where operatives and contraband can be
moved with relative ease and where it has been demonstrated that “black
holes” can be created within which non-state groups can operate, as was
the case with the MILF camps on Mindanao which were “no-go” areas for
Rp forces.
103
e region’s annual population growth rate is the highest in
dise–Yemen’s terrorist threat re-emerges’, Jane’s IR, May 2008; Brian O’Neill,
‘Yemen’s three rebellions’, e Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor, Vol,
VI, Issue 10, 15 May 2008, pp. 7-9 and two articles from the Arab Reform Bul-
letin, Vol. 6, Issue 6, July 2008: Jeremy M. Sharp ‘Yemen: where is the stability
tipping point?’ and Intissar Fakir. ‘Yemen: economic and regional challenges’.
For further background see Andrew McGregor, ‘Shi’ite insurgency in Yemen:
Iranian intervention of mountain revolt?’ e Jamestown Foundation Terror-
ism Monitor, vol. II, Issue 16, 12 Aug. 2004, pp. 4-6; Gregory D. Johnsen, ‘Is
al-Qaeda in Yemen re-grouping?’ e Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Focus,
vol. IV, Issue 15, 22 May 2007, p. 1; Kathy Gannon, ‘Yemen employs new
terror approach’, Washington Post, 4 July 2007; Dominic Moran, ‘Yemen vio-
lence raises nuclear questions’, ISN Security Watch, 9 July 2007; Gregory D.
Johnsen and Brian O’Neill, ‘Yemen attack reveals struggle among al-Qaeda’s
ranks’, e Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Focus, vol. IV, Issue 22, 10 July
2007, p. 2; Gregory D. Johnsen, ‘Yemen faces second generation of islamist
militants’, e Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Focus, vol. IV, Issue 27, 14
Aug. 2007; Dominic Moran, ‘Yemeni unity questioned’, ISN Security Watch,
12 Sept. 2007; Gregory D. Johnsen, ‘Al-Qaeda in Yemen reorganizes under
Nasir al-Wahayshi’, e Jamestown Foundation Terrorism Monitor, vol. V, Issue
11, 18 March 2008; Brian O’Neill, ‘Al-Qaeda new hardliners in Yemen strike
western interests’, e Janestown Foundation Terrorism Focus, Vol, 5, Issue 15,
16 April 2008 and Scheuer, ‘Yemen’s role in al-Qaeda’s strategy’. For a wider
geographical focus see eodore W. Karasik and Kim Cragin, ‘Case Study: e
Arabian peninsula’ in Rabasa. Ungoverned Territories, pp. 77-110.
101 John C.K. Daly, ‘Courting Sharia in Indonesia’, ISN Security Watch, 9 July
2007.
102 ‘Jihadist website commentary argues ‘maritime terrorism’ strategic necessity’.
103 ‘e Southeast Asian nations of Indonesia, Malaysia, the philippines and
ailand…have functioned as safe havens, training grounds, meeting places,
money-laundering centres, and centres for the trafficking of arms, humans and
narcotics. e area is ripe for this kind of activity because of its large popula-
tion of Muslim minorities (excepting predominantly Muslim Indonesia), poor
408
small boats, weak states, dirty money
the world. While economic expansion will ameliorate some of the effects of
that growth and bring huge benefits for millions of people, it is also likely
to trigger economic dislocation, shifts in population from rural to urban
areas and painful social changes, each one of which could provide Salafist
Islamism with opportunities to grow.
104
If maritime insurgency was to arise
it could represent a serious threat to security beyond whatever region with-
in which it took place.
Conclusion: assessing the threat
Terrorism at sea, while currently a minor threat to international order, has
the potential to develop. If current trends continue it is likely that the sea
will become a more contested space, one in which terrorists are likely to
be presented with more potential targets and more opportunities to mount
attacks. In addition, the continuing and in many cases unavoidable vulner-
abilities of the global maritime transport system could magnify the conse-
quences of any attacks, with effects throughout the system as a whole. ports
in almost all countries are poorly protected with little or no security either
on the quayside or on ships. ey are weak links in the system, which give
terrorists (and pirates) relatively easy access to vessels.
ere may be no proven links between pirates and terrorists, but in some
contexts pirates (and criminals generally) can nonetheless assist terrorists
by sustaining a milieu that deflects intelligence and law enforcement at-
tention from terrorist activity. Criminals such as pirates and smugglers do
not have to cooperate with terrorists to achieve this affect; they can help
them inadvertently by simply going about their normal business. By do-
ing so in a context in which multiple layers of criminal activity are in op-
eration simultaneously in a mephitic environment that is difficult for an
outsider to penetrate, the intelligence picture can become confused and
terrorist activities can be made harder to discern. eir motives might dif-
banking transparency, weak border controls, and geographic proximity to the
Golden Triangle…’: Berry, et al., ‘Nations hospitable to organized crime and
terrorism’, p. 107. Also International Crisis Group, ‘Southern philippines back-
grounder’, p. 2 on the importance of the philippine insurgencies to the con-
tinuing viability of trans-national terrorism in Southeast Asia. Nonetheless the
situation is not static and success does not flow only in one direction. See Joe
Cochrane, et al., ‘Asia is winning the fight on terror’, Newsweek, 20 Aug. 2007
and Eric Schmitt. ‘Experts see gains against Asian terror networks’. New York
Times, 9 June 2008.
104 Brian Nichiporuk, et al., ‘Demographics and Security in Maritime Southeast
Asia’, Georgetown JIA, Winter/Spring 2006, pp. 83-91.
409
assessing the threat
fer but their methods can be similar.
105
As Joshua ho has written, piracy
can form “the background noise from which maritime terrorist attacks may
materialise”.
106
however, it is the highly organised form of criminal piracy and its
links to national or transnational organised and “professionalised” crime
that demand the closest attention. Admiral Mullen takes a similar view:
“piracy…is a global threat to security because of its deepening ties to
international criminal networks, smuggling of hazardous cargoes, and
disruption of vital commerce”.
107
Both piracy and terrorism are “grey-area” threats. peter Chalk defines
these as “threats to the stability of sovereign states [from] non-state ac-
tors and non-governmental processes and organisations”.
108
e security
threat that confronts most governments today is dynamic, multi-faceted
and amorphous. Criminals and terrorists do not have the same objectives
and even now, as a rule, they do not collude.
109
Increasingly, however, as
their inhibitions against cooperation fade, their means and the effects of
their activities overlap—effects including deepened corruption, increased
drug addiction, and organised gang violence (that more and more involves
105 Louise I. Shelley and John picarelli, ‘Methods not Motives: Implications of the
Convergenece of International Organized Crime and Terrorism’, Police Practice
and Research, vol. 3, no. 4, 2002, p. 308.
106 ho, ‘e security of sea lanes in Southeast Asia’, p. 562.
107 Mullen, ‘Remarks as delivered for the 17
th
International Seapower Symposi-
um’.
108 See Chalk, Grey-Area Phenomena in Southeast Asia, p. 5, where he notes that
this definition is based on ideas developed by holden-Rhodes and Lupsha in
‘horsemen of the Apocalypse: Gray Area phenomena and the New World Dis-
order’, pp. 212–26, which possibly emerged first out of the work of Xavier
Raufer. See Raufer, ‘Gray Areas: A New Security reat’, pp. 1, 4-7 & 18. Also
Alison Jamieson, ‘An Italian Example: Gray Areas in a Western Democracy’, pp.
5 & 15 in the same issue of Political Warfare and the essays in Max G. Manwar-
ing (ed.) Gray Area Phenemena: Confronting the New World Disorder. Boulder
& Oxford: Westview press, 1993. For further discussion of the new kinds of
security threats facing the world, see Moisés Naím, ‘Five Wars We’re Losing’,
Foreign Policy, Jan.-Feb. 2003, pp. 28-37, and paul J. Smith, ‘Transnational
Security reats and State Survival: A Role for the Military?’ Parameters, Aug.
2000, pp. 77-91 for a review of a broader range of threats.
109 For more on the relationship between criminals and terrorists, see Canadian
Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies, ‘Actual and potential Links Be-
tween Terrorism and Criminality’, ITAC presents: Trends in Terrorism Series,
Volume 2006–5, 2006, p. 2
.
410
small boats, weak states, dirty money
the murder of law enforcement officials), such as has been seen in Mexico,
Brazil and some Central American states.
110
e opportunity for pirates and maritime terrorists to operate is cre-
ated largely by the failure of weak states to deny them safe havens and free
movement at sea, and the accessibility of potential targets in their waters.
111
Much of this activity is determined by geography. It is geography that dis-
tinguishes piracy from other crime and maritime terrorism from other ter-
rorism. But the weak points are not, in the first instance, vulnerable ports
and straits but vulnerable states. As the political scientist Martha Crenshaw
has observed in relation to terrorism, “the most salient political factor in
the category of permissive causes is a government’s inability or unwilling-
ness to prevent terrorism … e absence of effective security measures is a
necessary cause.”
112
piracy might be a second-order problem on its own, but it is a symptom
of state weakness, which in the context of wider criminal networks helps to
perpetuate that weakness which in its turn helps terrorism and organised
crime to flourish. Terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins remarks that
“while we should not take piracy as a marker for terrorism, it is a useful
indication of the level of security…whatever means [are used] to suppress
piracy will have a “knock-on” effect of making the operating environment
more difficult for terrorists.”
113
e failure to confront piracy effectively
has its consequences. As with any crime, incidents of piracy are likely to in-
crease and become more serious if they are not suppressed. As the “broken
windows” theory of policing suggests, serious crime can take root in areas
where the small things go unpunished.
114
In 1857 the British Attorney-General FitzRoy Kelly wrote: “pirates are
always the enemy of every state”.
115
What piracy and maritime terrorism
110 Manuel Roig-Franzia, ‘Drug trade tyranny on the border’, Washington Post, 16
March 2008. and Manuel Roig-Franzia ‘Mexico’s police chief is killed in brazen
attack by gunmen’, Washington Post, 9 May 2008.
111 I am indebted to Sam Bateman for crystallising this notion for me.
112 Crenshaw, ‘e Causes of Terrorism’, pp. 382-3.
113 Quoted in Nathaniel Xavier, ‘No terrorism threat in Straits’, e Star On-line,
5 July 2004.
114 James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling put forward the theory originally in
1982 in an Atlantic Monthly article entitled ‘Broken Windows’ which is avail-
able at http://www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/_atlantic_monthly-broken_
windows.pdf. In the maritime context see Martin N. Murphy, ‘Maritime Ter-
rorism: e reat in Context’, Jane’s IR, vol. 18, no. 2, Feb. 2006, p. 25.
115 Menefee, ‘piracy, Terrorism, and the Insurgent passenger’, p. 46.
411
assessing the threat
reveal—perhaps even more clearly than do organised crime and terrorism
on land—is that the divergences between states’ responses to common
problems are as wide as they have ever been and common cause is difficult
to achieve. So long as vulnerable states operate behind inviolable borders,
treating their external responsibilities as largely theoretical, then their prob-
lems, whether they involve piracy, smuggling or terrorism, will affect their
neighbours and the ships that pass their coasts. Furthermore, as the sea
comes under increasing pressure in the coming century, the problem of
maritime disorder unfettered by strong authority could extend well beyond
the waters of weak states.
413
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