224 EPISTEMOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF HISTORY
termines its origin, changes, and extinction stems from
its own nature. It is not the ideas and actions of the
individuals that constitute the historical process. There
is in fact no historical process. On the earth civilizations
come into being, live for some time, and then die just
as various specimens of every plant species are born,
live,
and wither away. Whatever men may do is irrele-
vant to the final outcome. Every civilization must decay
and die.
There is no harm in comparing different historical
events and different events that occurred in the history
of various civilizations. But there is no justification
whatever for the assertion that every civilization must
pass through a sequence of inevitable stages.
Mr. Toynbee is inconsistent enough not to deprive us
entirely of any hope for the survival of our civilization.
While the whole and only content of his study is to
point out that the process of civilization consists of pe-
riodic repetitive movements, he adds that this "does not
imply that the process itself is of the same cyclical order
as they are." Having taken pains to show that sixteen
civilizations have perished already and nine others are
at the point of death, he expresses a vague optimism
concerning the future of the twenty-sixth civilization.
2
History is the record of human action. Human action
is the conscious effort of man to substitute more satis-
factory conditions for less satisfactory ones. Ideas de-
determine what are to be considered more and less
satisfactory conditions and what means are to be re-
2.
A. J. Toynbee, A Study of History, Abridgment of Volumes
I-VI by D. C. Somervell (Oxford University Press, 1947), p. 254.