the use of force by states 1139
alternative, it is difficult to foresee a modification of this. States generally
are not at ease with the concept of anticipatory self-defence, however,
99
and one possibility would be to concentrate upon the notion of ‘armed
attack’ so that this may be interpreted in a relatively flexible manner.
100
One suggestion has been to distinguish anticipatory self-defence, where
an armed attack is foreseeable, from interceptive self-defence, where an
armed attack is imminent and unavoidable so that the evidential problems
and temptations of the former concept are avoided without dooming
threatened states to making the choice between violating international
law and suffering the actual assault.
101
According to this approach, self-
defence is legitimate both under customary law and under article 51 of the
Charter where an armed attack is imminent. It would then be a question
of evidence as to whether that were an accurate assessment of the situation
in the light of the information available at the relevant time. This would
be rather easier to demonstrate than the looser concept of anticipatory
self-defence and it has the merit of being consistent with the view that the
right to self-defence in customary law exists as expounded in the Caroline
case.
102
In any event, much will depend upon the characterisation of the
threat and the nature of the response, for this has to be proportionate.
103
99
See e.g. the Security Council debate on, and condemnation of, Israel’s bombing of the
Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 on the basis of anticipatory self-defence, 20 ILM, 1981,
pp. 965–7. See also A. Cassese, International Law in a Divided World, Oxford, 1986, pp. 230
ff., who concludes that a consensus is growing to the effect that anticipatory self-defence
is allowed but under strict conditions relating to proof of the imminence of an armed
attack that would jeopardise the life of the target state and the absence of peaceful means
to prevent the attack, ibid., p. 233. However, in International Law, 2nd edn, Oxford, 2005,
p. 362, Cassese states that, ‘it is more judicious to consider such action [anticipatory self-
defence] as legally prohibited, while admittedly knowing that there may be cases where
breaches of the prohibition may be justified on moral and political grounds and the
community will eventually condone them or mete out lenient condemnation’ (emphasis
in original).
100
See e.g. the Dissenting Opinion of Judge Schwebel, Nicaragua case, ICJ Reports, 1986,
pp. 14, 347–8; 76 ILR, pp. 349, 681. But see Dinstein, War, pp. 187 ff. Note also the
suggestion that attacks on computer networks may also fall within the definition of
armed attack if fatalities are caused, e.g. where the computer-controlled systems regulating
waterworks and dams are disabled: see Y. Dinstein, ‘Computer Network Attacks and Self-
Defence’, 76 International Law Studies, US Naval War College, 2001, p. 99.
101
See Dinstein, War, pp. 191–2.
102
See above, p. 1131.
103
However, note that the Report of the UN High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and
Change, A/59/565, 2004, at para. 188, declared that ‘a threatened state, according to long
established international law, can take military action as long as the threatened attack is
imminent, no other means would deflect it and the action is proportionate’ (emphasis
in original). The response of the UN Secretary-General, In Larger Freedom, A/59/2005,
para. 124, also stated that imminent threats were covered by the right to self-defence. The