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Page 488
at New York, and it was now too late to withdraw this season without abandoning the immense accumulation of
stores, baggage and provisions. By November, however, there should be 35,000 tons of transports at New York,
enough to remove the stores and provisions in the course of the winter as a preliminary to the general withdrawal.
Any offensive by Carleton's troops must therefore depend on what detachment he might decide to spare. As for the
Pacific expedition, ships from England could round the Horn if they sailed at the end of November: 1,800 troops
could be embarked in warships and coppered transports by then, and he admitted that they could do great mischief
to the Spaniards by supporting their rebellious colonies. Nevertheless he strongly opposed the project. The first
need was defence. Any ships sent to the Pacific were lost for the remainder of the war; and to part even with 50-
gun ships, which he had always insisted ought to be in the line of battle, might forfeit the remaining islands in the
West Indies. If Shelburne was sure of his object and determined to execute it, the force should be kept down to the
scale of the abandoned project of 1780, and consist of 40-gun ships and frigates with only 1,600 to 1,800 troops,
which could be supported by a larger force in the following autumn when New York had been evacuated and India
and the West Indies were safe. We must not embarrass ourselves with too many objects at once, he wrote: this had
been the misfortune of 1782. Unless much dexterity was used this winter to remove the stores from New York,
65,000 tons of transport shipping would be tied up abroad without a hope of any being returned to England. He
dreaded the consequences: 'Your Lordship is not so much conversant with this business as I am, nor can you
foresee the difficulties that must arise from it, if our future plans are not founded on firmer ground than they have
been hitherto.'1
Middleton's advice evidently had some influence, for the secret expedition was reduced to 1,000 troops, and the
escort to frigates with a single fifty-gun ship.2 But the orders to fit out the warships were not given till December,
and by then the situation had changed. Autumn after autumn the North Ministry had seen its initiative gradually
extinguished as the enemy's superior resources took command of the situation, and this last year was no different.
The enemy intended to renew the attack on Jamaica in 1783 by reinforcing Vaudreuil with thirty French and
Spanish ships of the line from Cadiz. The preparation of this force was known in London by December. Eight more
British ships of the line were ordered to be fitted out and sent to the West Indies, carrying two regiments for the
Jamaica garrison; and the troops for the secret expedition were ordered to rendezvous at Barbados, in case they
1 CO 5/106, p. 329; CL, Shelburne, Vol. 151, Nos. 2931.
2 G 4022; CO 318/9, f. 322.
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