6.5.2 Errors and uncertainties
Results of physical measurements are likely to be subject to errors, e.g. failure
to correct for the background. They are also subject to uncertainties, e.g.
uncertainty about nuclear data obtained from the literature and uncertainties
in necessary corrections. Results of measurements of radioactivity and many
other properties are subject to two types of uncertainties known as random
and systematic uncertainties or also as type A and type B uncertainties. While
errors could be avoided at least in principle and this will be here assumed,
uncertainties cannot be avoided
Random uncertainties apply for instance to measured countrates due to
random ¯uctuations in the rate of radioactive decay (Section 2.2.1). Statis-
tical methods described below are used to estimate these uncertainties. On
the other hand, systematic errors arise e.g. from uncertainties in the radio-
nuclide decay rates, the gamma ray fraction, the presence of radionuclide
impurities or instrumental problems. Estimates of systematic errors are, at
least in part, subjective, bearing in mind that the parameters have been
measured elsewhere.
Table 6.3 shows a list of possible random and systematic uncertainties.
They were calculated or estimated following a calorimetry measurement of
the activity of a pure b particle emitter as described in Section 5.4.3 and
Figure 5.5 (see Genka et al., 1987). It is not uncommon for results of
radioactivity measurements to be affected by four or more uncertainties that
have to be combined by realistic and reliable methods to arrive at the overall
uncertainty, which should be quoted with the ®nal result.
To calculate the overall uncertainty, say U, in the mean of a series of
measurements, e.g. of countrates, systematic uncertainties (U
s
) are added
linearly regardless of sign i.e. U
s
= U
1s
+ U
2s
+
...
U
ns
whereas random
uncertainties (U
r
) can be added in quadrature, U
r
=(U
1r
2
+ U
2r
2
+
...
U
nr
2
)
1/2
.
It is readily veri®ed that linear additions add more weight to the overall
uncertainty than quadrature additions. For instance, assuming ®ve uncer-
tainty estimates, each 2%, the linear sum is 10% whereas the quadrature
sum is only (562
2
)
1/2
& 4.5%.
Quadrature summing is justi®ed when corrections to a stated result could
be as likely to increase an uncertainty as to decrease it. Although systematic
uncertainties should be added linearly (see above), there are normally several
of them whence it is often realistic to assume that the overall effect is as likely
to decrease the total uncertainty as to increase it, so justifying quadrature
summing to obtain overall systematic uncertainties. Treatments of statistical
uncertainties are given by Bevington (1969), Kirkup (1994, Ch. 4), Spiegel
6.5 Errors and uncertainties 167