Kristiansen Svein. Maritime Transportation: Safety Management and Risk Analysis
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MaritimeTransportation
DEDICATIO N
To my mentor, Stian Erichsen.
MaritimeTransportation
Safet y Management
and Risk Analysis
Svein Kristiansen
AMSTERD AM BOSTON H EIDELBER G LONDON NEW Y ORK OXF ORD
PARIS SAN DI EG O SAN FRANC ISC O SINGAPORE SYDNEY TOKYO
Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann
Linacre House, Jordan Hill, Oxford OX2 8DP
30 Corporate Drive, Burlington, MA 01803
First published 2005
Copyright ß 2005, Svein Kristiansen. All rights reserved
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accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
ISBN 07506 59998
Cover images: Berggren, B. et al. (eds.) 1989, Norwegian Shipping (In Norwegian: Norsk Sjøfart).
Vol. 1, p. 135. Dreyers Forlag, Oslo.
For information on all Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann
publications visit our website at http://books.elsevier.com
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CONTENTS
Preface x
PART I BACKGROUND 1
1 Introduction 3
1.1 International Trade and Shipping 3
1.2 The Actors in Shipping 3
1.3 The Shipowner 4
1.4 Safety and Economy 6
1.5 Maritime Safety Regime 9
1.6 Why Safety Improvement is Difficult 9
1.7 The Risk Concept 12
1.8 Acceptable Risk 13
1.9 Conflict of Interest 14
1.10 Expertise and Rationality 14
2 Maritime Risk Picture 19
2.1 Introduction 19
2.2 Definitions 19
2.3 Maritime Activity 20
2.4 Concept of Accident Types 20
2.5 Quantitative Risk picture 24
2.6 Fatality Risk 28
2.7 Pollution 30
2.8 The Risk Concept 31
2.9 Large-Scale Accidents 37
2.10 The Accident Phenomenon 40
v
3 Rules and Regulations 53
3.1 Introduction 53
3.2 Scandinavian Star Fire Accident 56
3.3 International Maritime Organization (IMO) 57
3.4 Flag State Control 64
3.5 Port State Control 69
3.6 Classification Societies 75
PART II STATISTICAL METHODS 83
4 Statistical Ri sk Monitoring 85
4.1 Introduction 85
4.2 Statistical Measures 85
4.3 Discrete Probability Distributions 88
4.4 Continuous Distributions 95
4.5 Consequence Estimation 106
5 Decisions in Operation 119
5.1 Introduction 119
5.2 Work Accident Measurement 119
5.3 Safety Competence: Correlation Analysis 123
5.4 Testing of a Distribution Model 125
5.5 Choosing Among Alternative Training Programs 127
PART III RISK ANALYSIS 131
6 Traffic-Based Models 133
6.1 Introduction 133
6.2 Basic Theory 133
6.3 A General Model of Impact Accidents 135
6.4 Grounding and Stranding Models 136
6.5 Loss of Navigational Control 142
6.6 Collision 147
6.7 A General Collision Model 156
6.8 Loss of Traffic Control 161
6.9 Visibility 165
7 Damage Estimation 173
7.1 Introduction 173
7.2 Survey of Damage Data 173
7.3 Estimation of Impact Energy 180
vi CONTENTS
7.4 Stranding and Grounding 187
7.5 High-speed Craft (HSC) Damage 191
7.6 Damage Consequences 192
7.7 Boston Harbour Collision Risk Study 194
7.8 Risk Assessment for a Produ ction and Storage Tanker 196
7.9 Rules and Regulations 204
08 Risk Analysis Techniques 207
8.1 Introduction 207
8.2 Risk Analysis and Risk Assessment 208
8.3 Basic Theory 212
8.4 Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA) 216
8.5 Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP) 217
8.6 Failure Mode, Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) 222
8.7 Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) 225
8.8 Event Tree Analysis (ETA) 238
9 Cost-Benefit Analysis 245
9.1 Introduction 245
9.2 Basic Theory 246
9.3 CBA in a Risk Assessment Context 255
9.4 Alternative Problem-Solving Approaches 262
9.5 CBA of Oil Spill Prevention Measures for Tankers 272
10 Formal Safety Assessment 281
10.1 Introduction 281
10.2 The FSA Approach 283
10.3 Hazard Identification 286
10.4 Risk Assessment 289
10.5 Establish Safety Measures 293
10.6 Cost-Benefit Assessment 297
10.7 Recommendations for Decision-Making 301
10.8 Application of the FSA Methodology 301
PART IV MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONS 311
11 Human Factors 313
11.1 Introduction 313
11.2 Human Error 314
11.3 Accident Characteristics 316
11.4 Human Information Processing 316
11.5 Sensing and Observation 319
CONTENTS vii
11.6 Perception and Decision-Making 323
11.7 Physical Work Environment 325
11.8 Effect of Sea Motion 329
11.9 Human Reliability Assessment 331
12 Occupational Safety 341
12.1 Introduction 341
12.2 Lives Lost at Sea 341
12.3 Occupational Accidents 344
12.4 Accident Situation 346
12.5 Job-Related Problems 348
12.6 Work Conditions and Flag Standard 355
12.7 The Global Labour Market 356
13 Accident Analysis 361
13.1 Introduction 361
13.2 Safety and Learning 361
13.3 Why Analyse Accidents? 363
13.4 The Maritime System 364
13.5 Accident Theories 367
13.6 What is an Accident? 367
13.7 Reconstruction of Events 371
13.8 The Loss Causation Model 374
13.9 Alternative Accident Models 383
13.10 Official Accident Investigation 386
13.11 Accident Analysis Software 392
13.12 Human Factors Analysis 394
13.13 The CASMET Approach 398
13.14 Case-Oriented Analysis 410
13.15 Incident Reporting 414
14 Emergency Preparedness 425
14.1 Introduction 425
14.2 Examples of Accidents 426
14.3 Emergency and Life-Saving Regulations 430
14.4 Emergency Preparedness Activities and Functions 433
14.5 Human Behaviour in Catastrophes 438
14.6 Evacuation Risk 442
14.7 Evacuation Simulation 446
14.8 Pollution Emergency Planning 454
viii CONTENTS
15 Safety Management 463
15.1 Introduction 463
15.2 Total Quality Management (TQM) 468
15.3 The ISM Code 481
15.4 Auditing 488
15.5 Corporate Safety Culture 493
15.6 A Final Comment 497
Index 503
CONTENTS ix