Kissinger Henry. White House Years

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TestingtheStalemate

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heresumptionofnegotiationswasofconsiderablesymbolicimportance:It

showedthatHanoinolongertookforgrantedeitheramilitaryvictoryor

Nixon’selectoraldefeat.IfHanoihadbeenconfidentofwinning,itwouldhave

timedthenegotiationstocoincidewithsomespectacularnewoffensive.Ifithad

believedthatitcouldbringaboutthepoliticaldemiseofNixon,itwould have 

stonewalledandpublishedambiguouspeaceproposalstostirupourdomestic

oppositionandpainttheAdministrationasanobstacletopeace—asithaddone

beforetheEasteroffensive.ThatHanoiinsistedonresumingplenaries,even

thoughtheywouldcoincidewiththeDemocraticConvention,wasa

demonstrationofHanoi’sgrowingdoubtthattotalvictorywaspossible.

T

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IhadreckonedallalongthatHanoi’soffensivewouldculminateinaserious

negotiation,whateverhappened.IfHanoiweretoprevailonthebattlefield, 

NixonwouldbeforcedtosettleonHanoi’sterms;iftheoffensivewerehaltedand

theprobableDemocraticcandidate,SenatorGeorgeMcGovern,lookedasifhe

waswinningtheelection,Hanoiwouldwait;itwouldgambleontheextremely

favorabletermshewasoffering.(McGovern’stermsweremuchbetterforHanoi

thanwhatitwasaskingforinourprivatetalks.)Iftheoffensivewerebluntedand

Nixonlookedliketheprobablewinner,Hanoiwouldmakeamajorefforttosettle

withus.MyprivatepredictionalsowasthatifNixonweremorethantenpoints

aheadinthepublicopinionpollsbySeptember15,Hanoiwouldsubstantially

changeitsnegotiatingstrategyandseekanimmediatesettlement.Butto

maintainthatoptionHanoiwouldhavetwotasks:Itwouldhavetoreconnoiter

ourintentionstofindoutourobjectives;anditwouldhaveto trytonarrowthe

differencesintheintervalsothatafinalagreementcouldbeputtogetherquickly,

ifitsochose,inthefewweeksremaininguntiltheelection.



IdidnotagreewiththoseofmystaffwhothoughtHanoiwouldchoose

protractedwarfareaftertheoffensive.Havingcommitteditsregularforces,it

wouldfindittechnicallydifficultto reverttoguerrillawarfare.Andsuchacourse

wouldfacepsychologicalobstaclesaswell.Itwouldbeanadmissionthatafterten

yearsofbloodywarfarewhichhaddraineditscountry,NorthVietnamwasback

towhereithadstarted.Hanoimightadoptsuchastrategyifeverythingelse

failed;itwouldnotc hooseitifotheroptionswereavailable. 



ButifHanoi’spositionwasmilitarilyprecarious,ourswasdifficult

psychologicallyandpolitically.ThePresidenthadgainedsomemaneuveringroom

withhisbolddecisiontobombandmine,butifitdidnotbringresultsfairly

quickly,itwouldbeincreasinglyattacked asa“failure.”Thedemandsfor

“political”alternativeswouldmount.Andgiventhewayourdomesticdebatehad

evolved,thiswouldmeaninpracticeacceptanceofHanoi’sdemandfora

coalitiongovernmentandafixeddeadlineforourwithdrawals,conditionalonly

onthereleaseofprisonersofwar.(AndMcGovernwaspreparednottoinsist

evenonthelatterasaformalcondition,expressing merelythe“expectation”that

ourwithdrawalwouldleadtotheirrelease.)May,June,andJulysawtheheightof

thefavorablepublicreactiontothecombinationofthesuccessfulsummitandthe

bombingandmining.Nevertheless,inthatsameperiodtherewerenineteen

votesintheHouseandSenateonvariousend‐the‐waramendments.Notallof

themwereequallyobjectionable.Somecontainedelementsofourpo sition;none

embraceditcompletely.Allwerevariationsonofferingwithdrawalforthereturn

ofourprisoners.Thedifferencebetweensupportersandopponentshad

narrowedtooneissue,whetherweshouldinsistonacease‐fireorsettlesimply

forthereturnofourprisonersinconjunctionwithourwithdrawal.

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TherewerethreeschoolsofthoughtintheSenateonthatissue.Agrowing

minority(aboutthirtySenators)favoredsettinganunconditionaldeadlinefor

Americanwithdrawalinthe“expectation”thatthiswouldleadHanoitofreeour

prisoners.AboutfortySenatorsfavoredmakingwithdrawalcontingentonlyon

releaseofourprisoners.Adwindlingminorityfavoredmakingourwithdrawal

dependalsoonaceasefire.Bytheendof1971amajorityonbehalfofthe

withdrawal‐for‐prisonersoptionhaddeveloped;itgrewthrough1972.Requiring

aceasefirebeforewithdrawalhadbeco meaconservativeproposal;amendments

includingitinasettlementwereconsist entlydefeatedinbothhouses.Thus,the

dominant“peace”positionintheSenatenowwasforustogetoutofVietnam

evenwhilethewaramongtheVietnamese continued.Wewouldendtenyearsof

warinreturnforourprisoners,whileleavingouralliestotheirfate.



Wemanagedtoblockthevariousdemandsforunconditionalwithdrawal,

butbyever‐smallermargins.OnJuly24aCooper‐Brookeamendmentinsistingon

awithdrawalinreturnonlyforthereleaseofprisonerspassedintheSenateby

fivevotes;thesamedayanattemptbySenatorJamesAllenofAlabama tomake

ourwithdrawalcontingentonasupervisedcease‐fireaswellwasdefeatedbyfive

votes.Soonerorlater,oneoftheamendmentstocutofffundswouldpass.Ata 

minimumHanoihadeveryreasontobelievethatithadaguaranteedsafetyvalve:

Ifitofferedusourprisoners,theCongresswouldprobablystopthewar.

Whatevertheparliamentaryarithmetic,alloftherecurringresolutions,differing

astheydidfromournegotiatingposition,obviouslyweakened usforthe

bargainingthatwasnowinevitable.Andwecouldnot goalongwiththeSenate

view.Wewerecommittedtotyingwithdrawaltoacease‐fire.Itremainedour

viewthatitwouldbeinhumane,ignoble,anddestructiveoflargerinterests

elsewheretowithdrawwhilefightingcontinuedagainstthosewhohadreliedon

us.Abandoningouralliestobeoverrunwouldmockoursacrificeanddiscredit

ournation’sforeignpolicy.



Wewerethereforedeterminedtoseekafaircompromise.Themilitary

situationwasimproving,butnothing liketotalvictoryseemedinsight.ByJune,

eventhoughSaigonhadassumedtheoffensive,thepaceofSouthVietnamese

militaryoperationsofferednoprospectofeitheradrasticorarapid

improvement.NotuntilthemiddleofSeptemberwasQuangTriretaken;theroad

toAnLocwasnevercompletelyreopened,althoughafreshdivisionwasmoved

upfromtheDeltatotheareaaroundSaigon.Whileithadperformedwellin

MilitaryRegion4,the21stDivisionconducteditselfasanyotherSouth

Vietnameseformationdidwhenshiftedoutoftheareaofitsrecruitment:It

turnedsluggishandunenterprising.Wewereapproachingamilitarystalemate.

FromthevantagepointofHanoi,sorecentlysureoftotalvictory,thiswouldbea

majorsetback.Butwewouldberunninggraverisksifweinterpreteditasan

auguryoftotalvictory.



Still,weenteredthenegotiationsinthebestpositionever.Ifmyanalysis

werecorrect,thepublicopinionpollsduringSeptemberwouldtipthebalance.No

concessionsonourpartinJuly,therefore,wereverylikelytoaffectHanoi’s

calculations.And,infact,ourmarginforconcessionwasseverelycircumscribed.If

weweretruetoourprinciples,wecouldnot,exceptcosmetically,gobeyondour

militaryproposalsofMay8,1972(orMay31,1971),andourpoliticalproposalsof

January25,1972.SoIpreparedforthenegotiationsinanoptimisticandrelaxed

frameofmind;thefundamentaldecisionswouldhavetobemadebyHanoi,not

byus.UntilHanoihadanalyzedthelikelyelectoraloutcome,ourbeststrategy

wouldbetostaycool,offernothingsig nificantlynew,andthushopetointensify

thepressuresonHanoi.ThecriticalmomentwouldcomeonlyafterHanoihad

madeitsfinaljudgm entofNixon’selectoralprospects.



Lateron,themythdevelopedthatNixonfordomesticpoliticalreasonswas

eagertoendthewarbeforetheelection.Nothingcouldbefurtherfromthetruth.

AsIhaverepeatedlyshown,Nixonwasexceedinglysuspiciousofnegotiationsin

general(unlesshehadanearlyironcladguaranteeofsuccess)andespeciallywith

theNorthVietnamese.Hedoubtedthatanythingwouldevercomeofthem;ashis

electionprospectsimproved,hesaw nodomesticreasontopursuethem.InJuly

hestillsawsome benefitinkeepinghisDemocraticoppositionoffbalanceby

periodicallyannouncingmyprivatemeetingswithLeDucTho.Butafterthe

debacleofMcGovern’sVicePresidentialnominee,SenatorThomasEagleton,

Nixonlostinteresteveninthat.Astheweekswentbyhebecameconvincedthat

hehadnarrowedMcGovern’ssupporttoafar‐outliberalfringethatwould

opposehimregardlessofwhathedidonVietnam.Ontheotherhand,settling

evenonthetermswehadearlierputforwardpubliclymightwellputat riskhis

supportamongconservativegroupswhomheconsideredhisbase.Nixonsawno

possibilityofprogressuntilaftertheelectionandprobablydidnotevendesire it.

Eventhen,hepreferredanotherescalationbeforesittingdowntonegotiate.



Ithoughtthatifthingsbrokeright,ourelectionwouldserveasan

unchangeabledeadlineforHanoi,theequivalentofanultimatum.Itsfearofwhat

the“hawk”mightdowithanewmandateforfouryearsmightleadittoprefera

settlementbeforeourelection.Hanoimighthavetoabandonitshabitoftryingto

wearusdownbypropagandisticproposalsandmobilizingmediaandthe

Congress,andseekarealnegotiation.Andnonetoosoon,perhaps.ForI

thought—contrarytobothHanoi’sprobableanalysisandourownconventional

wisdom—thatwewouldactuallybeworseoffaftertheelection.AllthepollsIhad

seensuggestedthatthecompositionofthenewCongresswouldbesubstantially

thesameasoftheoldorevenslightlylessfavorable—aprospectreinforcedby

Nixon’sdecisiontoseparatehiscampaignasmuchaspossiblefromthe

CongressionalraceinordertoobtainthelargestPresidentialelectoralmarginin

history.Thusinrealitythepressuresforendingthewarbylegislationwerecertain

toresumeafterNovember.Andtheoppositionwouldhaveaconvenienttarget

whenwesubmittedasupplementarybudgetinJanuarytopayforthecostsof

reinforcementsduringtheoffensive.Lairdestimatedthatwemighthaveto

requestfourtosixbilliondollars.Nixonalreadyhadbeforehimaproposalby

LairdtowithdrawouraugmentationforcesafterJanuary1,1973,tokeepthe

supplementarycostsfromgrowingunmanageable.Specifically,Lairdproposed

withdrawingninety‐eightB‐52sandthreesquadronsofF‐4sasofJanuary.Once

Hanoiunderstoodthatourforcesweredeclining,itcouldreverttowaitingusout.

AndoncethecompositionoftheCongressbecameclear,Hanoiwouldresumeits

psychologicalwarfare.



Inanyevent,Iwaspersuadedthatitwasnotwhollyourchoicewhetherto

negotiateornot.IfHanoiperceivedusasstonewalling,itcould“gopublic.”Ifit

acceptedtheframeworkofourproposalsanddisclosedit(whichineffectitfinally

didinOctober),thiswouldputusinanimpossiblepositiondomestically,no

matterhowbigNixon’sleadinthepolls.Wewouldthenberepeatingtheclassic

syndromeoftheVietnamwar,ofappearingtobepushedstepbysteptoward

concessions,aprocessthatunderminedauthoritywhatevertheoutcome.The

warhadtobeended,inmyview,byademonstrationthatourgovernmentwasin

controlofevents,andthisrequiredmaintainingthediplomaticinitiative.Forall

thesereasons,Iproceededtothenegotiations,withNixon’sacquiescence,ifnot

hisenthusiasm.



InJunetheNorthVietnamesewerecrowingthatthereturntotheplenaries

representedagreatvictoryovertheUnitedStates.Andtheywentbacktotheir

oldtacticsofbringingpressurebyinvitingtoHanoithosewhomtheyconsidered

leadingAmericans,inthiscaselaborleadersandjournalists.IwarnedDobrynin

onJune30thatifHanoirepeatedtheperformanceofthepreviousyear—

stonewallinginpublicwhiletalkingseriouslyinprivate—wewouldbreakoffthe

talks.Dobrynincluckedsympathetically(atleastIassumedhiscluckingwas

sympathetic;inanycasetherewasagoodchancethemessagewouldbe

transmittedtoHanoi).



Ourbasicstrategyintheprivatemeetingsstarting July19wouldbetomake

nonewproposalsuntilHanoi’sintentionsbecameclearer.Iwouldtrytodrain

Hanoi’spoliticalproposalsgraduallyofoperationalcontent,forexample,

counteringtheircoalitiongovernmentwithouranodyneproposalforajoint

electoralcommission.IfHanoiplayedalong,wemightgraduallyemergewiththe

dual‐trackapproachwehadofferedoriginally:settlingthemilitaryissues,and

leavingthepoliticalissuesessentiallytofuturenegotiationsamongtheparties.

Suchasettlementwouldpreserveouralliesandgivethemanopportunityto

determinetheirfuture—whichisineffectwhatwehadalwayssought.



EarlyinJulywesentHaigtoSaigontoassessthewarandtoconsultwith

Thieuaboutthepositions weproposedtotake.HaigsawThieuonJuly3,buthe

encounteredadifferentleaderfromtheonewehaddealtwiththusfar.Thieu’s

armyhadnowbeentestedinbattle;hethoughtthatHanoiwouldnolongerbe

abletodefeathim,certainlysolongasourairpowerwasavailabletobackhim.He

calculated—nearlycorrectly—thathecouldmakeourelectionworkforhimby

playingonNixon’softenrepeatedreluctancetorepeatJohnson’spressuretactics

of1968.Moreover,ThieuunderstoodHanoifarbetterthanwedid.Throughall

theyearsoftheNixonAdministration,therealreasonhehadneverchallenged

anyofournegotiatingproposal swasthathecalculatedthatallofthemwouldbe

rejectedbyHanoi.Heconsideredthemthepricehehadtopayforcontinued

Americansupport.Butin1972hesmelledcompromiseevenbeforemost

Americansdid.Likeme,heseemedconvincedthataseriousnegotiationwas

imminent.Butourproblemand theonehefacedwereentirelydifferent.A

compromisewouldbethebeg inning,nottheend,ofmassiveproblemsinSouth

Vietnam.Wewouldwithdraw;SouthVietnamwouldremain.Hanoiwouldnever

giveupitsimplacablequestforvictory;soonerorlaterSouthVietnamwouldhave

tofightalone.GoingontototalvictoryseemedmoresensibletoThieuand

probablynomorecostlythanthecompromisesnowachievable.Unfortunately,

thatwasnotourchoice.EvenifHanoididnotsuddenlyacceptourproposals,the

newCongresswouldforceustosettleonworseterms—withdrawalfor

prisoners—thanthosewewouldseektonegotiate.Itwasunderstandablethat

Thieuwouldcontinuetodemandvictory,whichwouldhaverequiredseveral

yearsoffurtherAmericanaswellasSouthVietnameseexertion.Butwehadno

marginathomeforsuchacourse.Wewouldbeluckyifwecouldobtainthe

termsNixonhadputforwardonMay8beforetheCongressvotedusoutofthe

war.



AllofthisemergedonlyindistinctlyduringHaig’svisit,likethefirstrumbles

ofadistantstorm.OnJuly3,readingfromtalkingpointspreparedbymeandWin

Lord,HaigbriefedThieuontheVietnamdiscussionsoftheMoscowsummitand

myJunetriptoPeking.Hedescribedournewproposal—a cease‐fire,thereturn

ofPOWs,afour‐monthwithdrawal,andThieu’sresignationtwomonthsbeforea

newpresidentialelection.Thesoledifferencefrompreviousproposalswasthe

earliertimingprovidedforThieu’sresignation,asNixonhadhalf‐promised

Brezhnev.Haigexplainedourstrategy:“TheU.S.hadbeenattemptingtocombine

thefirmmeasurestakenonthemilitaryfrontwithademonstrationof

reasonablenessonthenegotiatingfront.”HeraisedtoThieuthepossibility

preoccupyingme,thatHanoimightbeconsideringasofterstanceinthenear

future“ontheassumptionthatPresidentNixonwouldwininNovem berand

wouldpossiblybeeasiertodealwithbeforeratherthanfollowinghisreelection.”



Thieu’sresponseshowedthathewasnotquiteonourwavelength.Hedid

notmakethisexplicitbecause,accordingtohim,Hanoi’sleadersdidnotfeelthe

pressuretonegotiatethatHaigwaspredicting.Theywouldnotsettle,heargued,

unlesstheyobtainedacoalitiongovernment.Apermanentcease‐firewould

guaranteetheirdefeatbecausetheywouldneverbeableto startthewarup

again—apointThieuforgotwhenHanoiacceptedpreciselysuchacease‐fire

threemonthslater. Thieuseemedconcernedthatourbureaucratsmightpressfor

atemporarycease‐fireduringtheelectionperiod;this,heargued,mustbe

rejected.Heopposedanunsupervisedcease‐fireofanykind;wedidnotcatchthe

implication—entirelynew—thatThieuconsideredanyin‐placecease‐fire

unsupervisable.Hewassubtlyrejectingwhatwehadbeenofferingwithhis

concurrencesinceOctober7,1970,andwhatthePresidenthadreaffirmedaslate

asMay8.(Ofcourse,theSenatewouldsoongoonrecordforatotalAmerican

withdrawalinreturnforprisonerswithoutanycease‐firewhatsoever.)Thieuhad

noproblemoverofferingtoresigntwomonthsbeforeanewelectioninSouth

Vietnam;hewaswillingtostepdownevenfourmonthsbefore,ifthathelpedthe

negotiation.HeseemedatonewithhisbrethreninHanoiintheconvictionthat

whoevercontrolledtheelectionmachinerywouldwinintheend.



HaigpromisedtoconveythesethoughtstoWashington.Inclosing,he

reassuredThieuonceagainthat“undernocircumstanceswouldtheUnitedStates

turntoasolutionatthenegotiatingtablewhichbelittledthesuccessesachieved

onthebattleground,orwhichofferedHanoiadvantagesthatitcouldnotgain

throughmilitaryaction.”ThieuextendedhiswarmestregardstoNixonandme,

possiblynotrealizingthatHaig’sfinal“reassurance”foreshadowedthein‐place

cease‐firewhichThieuhadjustrejected,foritscorollarywasthatwecouldseek

noadvantagesbeyondthemilitarysituationontheground.Haighadjust

participatedinraisingthecurtainononeofthemostsearingdramasinthequest

forendingthewarinVietnam.



AsIleftforParisonJuly19thedifferencesamongtheprincipalactorson

oursidelayinnuances,inhintswhosefullimportwedidnotyetgrasp.Atleastin

July,Nixonacceptedthenegotiationslargelyfortheirutilityinconfusinghis

domesticopponents.Thieubelievedthattherefusalofacoalitiongovernment

offeredasafehavenfromtherisksofnegotiationandtheuncertaintyof

defendingSouthVietnamwithoutus.AndIdidnotthinkanybreakinthe

deadlock—whichIexpected—wouldoccuruntilthesecondhalfofSeptember.

Thuswecouldallrallybehindanegotiatingstrategythatessentiallyheldto

establishedpositionsandsoughttogarnerwhateverconcessionsHanoimight

offerinseekingtonarrowthegapbefor emakingitsfinaldecision.



ImetLeDucThoonJuly19inthedingyresidenceat11rueDarthé,which

hadbeenthesiteofallbutthefirstofourpreviousfourteenmeetings.Thesmall

diningroomoverlookingthegardenhadagainbeensetupwithasquare

conferencetablecoveredwithgreenbaize.SomeathomefanciedtheNorth

Vietnameseaspeace‐loving,essentiallygentlecreaturesoffendedbyany

demonstrationofAmericanpowerandeagerabovealltoreciprocategesturesof

Americangoodwill.Ourexperiencewasotherwise.WeknewthattheNorth

Vietnamesehadwantonlyinvadedallneighboringcountries;thattheirformof

warfaredependedinpartonterror.DisplaysofAmericanstrengthneverfailedto

betakenseriouslybythemevenastheyresistedthem.Actsofgoodwillthatdid

notreflecttheexistingbalanceofforcesweretreatedassignsofmoralweakness,

evenastheyscornedthem.TheyhadbeeninsolentonMay2,whentheythought

theywerewinning.Theywerebenignandfriendlynow,eventhoughinthe

intervaltheirharborshadbeenminedandallrestrictionsonourbombinghad

beenremoved.



Ibeganwithananalysisofwhyourprevioustalkshadfailed.Hanoi’srefusal

todistinguishbetweenwhatcouldbesettledbynegotiationandwhathadtobe

lefttohistoryguaranteedawartotheend.Iproceededata verydeliberate pace

andspokeinlargelyphilosophicaltermstoremoveanythoughtthatwefeltunder

thepressureofanapproachingelection.I stressed(thoughIdidnotinfact

believeit)thatoursituationwouldimproveaftertheelection;Iwarnedthatany

attempttomanipulatethenegotiationstoinfluenceourelectionswouldleadto

animmediaterupture.I closedmyopeningremarkswithastatementofgeneral

principles.WewerewillingtocoexistwithHanoiafterthewar. Wehadnodesire

toretainpermanentbasesinSo utheastAsia.Wewouldnotimposeour

preferencesonafreelyelectedgovernmentinSaigon.Iwithheldanyconcrete

proposals.



LeDucThoconductedmostoftheconversationfortheNorthVietnamese,

anindicationthattheywereserious.Thiswasadifferent“Ducky”—oneIhadseen

onlyoncebefore,inthepreviousJuly,whenhehadtriedtogetustojettison

ThieuduringtheSouthVietnameseelection.Nowhewasallconciliationin

substanceandinstyle.Helaughedatmybanter;hesubtlyflatteredmyacademic

credentials.WeweresparedtheepicpoemofVietnam’sheroicstrugglefor

independence.Instead,LeDucThoinsistedthatHanoiwaseagertosettlethewar

duringNixon’sfirstterm.Heaskedrepeatedlyifwewouldrespectwhatever

agreementswerereached,signedorunsigned.Hewouldmakea“greateffort”to

havethismeetingbecomeaturningpoint,hesaid, providedbothsides

reexaminedtheirpositions—anunprecedenteddisclaimerofinfallibility.Hanoi,

heaverred,wouldkeepinmindourresponsibilitiesinotherpartsoftheworld

eventhoughthesewereofnodirectconcerntotheVietnamesethemselves—

anotherstartlingdeparture.Hedweltonlybrieflyandperfunctorilyonthe

bombingandmining;amazingly,hedidnotevenaskustostopthem,resorting

insteadtotherefrainof1968thatendingtheseactivitieswouldcreatea

“propitious”atmospherefornegotiations. Ihadbeenhalf‐persuadedbythat

propositionin1968;afterfouryearsofexperienceInowknewtheoppositewas

true.



Aftersparringforawhile,IputforwardourMay8proposal—omitting,

however,thepartaboutextendingthetimelimitforThieu’sresignation.Ducky

turneditdown,thoughmuchlesspolemicallythaninthepast.Hereiterated

Hanoi’sstandardproposalofa three‐partprovisionalcoalitionGovernmentof

NationalConcordbutmodifieditinonerespect:HeimpliedthatonceThieu

resigned,therestofthegovernment couldstayandevenreceiveAmericanhelp,

pendingafinalnegotiationwiththeCommunists.Ourmeetinghadlastedforsix

andahalfhours—thelongestever.WeagreedtomeetagainonAugust1.



AsIleft,ItoldLeDuc Thothatmymovementsweretoowellobservednow

tohavethemeetingsremainsecret.Therewouldbetoomanyjournalistic

inquiriestowhichwewouldhavetoreplyeitherevasivelyoruntruthfully.SoI

suggestedthatweannounceeachmeetingafterithadbeenheldbutgiveno

details.WhenNixonhadrevealedthesecrettalksinJanuary,Hanoihaddeclared

withbravadothatithadonlyreluctantlyandatoururgingagreedtokeepthem

confidential.Now,whenputtothetest,LeDucThogrumbled.Obviously,hewas

loathtogiveuptheadvantageofprobingourpositionsecretlywhiledepriving

ourpeopleofhopebystalematingthevisiblediplomacy.Igavehimnochoice

now.Thefactofthetalkswouldbemadepublic.Fortheremainderofthe

negotiationswebluntedoneofthepsychologicalweaponsinHanoi’sarsenalby

announcingeachmeeting.Infact,noseriousattemptwasmadebythemediato

coverthenegotiationsortofolloweither mymovementsorLeDucTho’s.Itwas

symptomaticofwidespreadcynicismaboutpeaceprospects.Twoannounced

secretmeetingsinelevendays,coupledwithatriptoSaigon,didlittletoshake

thewidespreadconvictionthatitwasallanelectoralmaneuver.Nooneexplained

whyHanoiwouldcooperateinplayingsuchagame.



Isummeduptheresultsofthefirstmeetinginame morandumtothe

President:



Whiletheyhavesaidnothingwhichprecludestheirreturningstrictlytotheirold

positions,theywereaboutaspositiveinthisfirstsessionaswecouldexpectiftheydowantto

settle,especiallysincewemusthavethrownthemoff‐stridebywithholdingthetotalpackage

discussedintheUSSR.



Iftheydomove,itcouldbeinthedirectionofaceasefirecoupledwithpolitical

principlesalongthelinesofourJanuary25proposal,butthiswouldnotsurfacebeforeseveral

moremeetingsattheearliest.Theotherpossibilityistheirusingthetalkstoelaboratea

positionwhichmakesThieualonetheobstacletoacomprehensivesettlement…



UponmyreturnIbriefedbothDobryninandHuangHuaaboutwhathad

happened.Andintheintervalbetweenthemeetingscameanotherofthe

periodicmediaassaults,thistimetotheeffectthatweweredeliberatelybombing

NorthVietnamesedikesandimperilingmillionsoflives.Itwasoneofthe

perennialsoftheantiwardebate,ready‐madefora“credibilitygap”andforthe

implicationthatnoimmoralactwasbeyondtheNixonAdministration.Ifwe

deniedit,Hanoiwouldproduceabombcraterortwoonsomeembankment;if

we“admitted”thatastraybombaimedatamissilesitemighthavehitadikeby