188 3 Hitting Times: A Mix of Mathematics and Finance
in general suboptimal. Indeed, for example, at maturity, it is known that the
exercise boundary is a non-differentiable function of time (the slope is infinite).
As shown in equation (3.11.7), the approximation of the exercise boundary
near to maturity is different from an exponential function of time. However,
as shown by Omberg, the level of accuracy obtained with this approximation
formula is high.
3.10 A Structural Approach to Default Risk
Credit risk, or default risk, concerns the case where a promised payoff is not
delivered if some event (the default) happens before the delivery date. The
default occurs at time τ where τ is a random variable.
In the structural approach, a default event is specified in terms of the
evolution of the firm’s assets. Given the value of the assets of the firm, the
aim is to deduce the value of corporate debt.
3.10.1 Merton’s Model
In this approach – pioneered by Merton [642] – the default occurs if the assets
of the firm are insufficient to meet payments on debt at maturity. The firm
is financed by the issue of bonds, and the face value L of the bonds must be
paid at time T .AttimeT , the bondholders will receive min(V
T
,L)whereL
is the debt value and V
T
the value of the firm. Thus, writing
min(V
T
,L)=L − (L − V
T
)
+
we are essentially dealing with an option pricing problem. Merton assumes
that the risk-neutral dynamics of the value of the firm are
dV
t
= V
t
(rdt + σdB
t
),V
0
= v>L,
where r is the (constant) risk-free interest rate, and σ is the constant volatility.
In that context, the contingent claim pricing methodology can be used: the
market where (V
t
,t ≥ 0) is a tradeable asset is complete and arbitrage free,
the equivalent martingale measure is the historical one, hence the value of the
corporate bonds at time t is
E(e
−r(T −t)
min(V
T
,L)|F
t
)=Le
−r(T −t)
− P
E
(t, V
t
,L)
where P
E
(t, x, L) is the value at time t of a put option on the underlying V
with strike L and maturity T .
We denote by P (t, T)=e
−r(T −t)
the value of a default-free zero-coupon
and by D(t, T ) the value of the defaultable zero-coupon of maturity T , with
payment L = 1, i.e.,
D(t, T )=e
−r(T −t)
E(1
{V
T
>1}
+ V
T
1
{V
T
<1}
|F
t
) .