Valters Ščerbinskis
conditions in society likely to generate authoritarianism, for instance pointing
to the highly fragmented condition of parliament and its inability to work
effectively. The participants in the coup and opposition figures also
mentioned external factors, that is to say the influence of the so-called
Zeitgeist phenomena―regime changes in neighboring countries and the rise
of international discourse generally critical of democracy. Although in the
early 1930s political conditions were characterised in the newspapers of the
day and in statements by politicians as a “parliamentary crisis”, today many
researchers deny that such a crisis existed. The majority of researchers (most
prominent of them Edgars Dunsdorfs, Aivars Stranga, Mārtiņš Virsis, Jānis
Peniķis) emphasise the immense role of Ulmanis’s personality in the
implementation of the idea, pointing out that definite causes of the collapse
of democracy were absent in Latvia.
1
These authors recognise that there were
certain deficiencies in the parliamentary system, but reject the idea that this
was a cause of the coup. A different view is expressed by historians Indulis
Ronis, Edgars Andersons, and partly also by Ēriks Ţagars and Antonijs
Zunda, who emphasise the decisive role of external factors (particularly the
rise of the authoritarianism in Europe) and the parliamentary crisis.
2
They
consider that to some degree the coup was inevitable, that the preconditions
for it were created by the inadequacies in the way democracy was functioning
in the country, and that the takeover of power by Ulmanis was the lesser evil
for the country―better, at least, than a coup by the far right. Overall,
however, by analysing the causes of the coup and contrasting the various
readings of them, it is possible to identify several of the most important
groups of preconditions that affected the stability of democracy in inter-war
Europe. These were: socio-economic factors, a country’s social structure,
institutional factors, political culture, the role of the military, political
violence and external factors.
Socio-economic development was significant in determining whether
conditions in the country promoted change in the direction of
authoritarianism. Essentially, the collapse of democracy is less likely in
socio-economically developed countries than in less developed countries.
However, as indicated by the example of Germany, which was at the
forefront of European economic development, and the examples of Ireland
and Finland, which were relatively weak economically, socio-economic
conditions cannot always serve as the sole―or even main―factor in the
development of authoritarianism. In the early 1930s, Latvia had experienced
a serious economic crisis, but by 1933 and 1934 all of Europe was gradually
starting to recover from the economic depression. In terms of the general
indicators of economic and social development (unemployment, inflation,
etc.), Latvia cannot be placed unequivocally among the countries where
conditions for the continued existence of democracy were critical. Arnolds
Aizsilnieks, author of The Economic History of Latvia (Latvijas saimniecības
vēsture), considers that 1932 was the most difficult year experienced by the