5.4 Probabilities and ensembles 75
corresponding to the fact that of the three possibilities s = 2, 4, 6 which constitute
the compound event B, only one is less than or equal to 3.
If B is held fixed, Pr(A | B) as a function of its first argument A behaves like
an “ordinary” probability distribution. For example, if we use s to indicate points
in the sample space, the numbers Pr(s | B) are nonnegative, and
s
Pr(s | B) =
1. One can think of Pr( A | B) with B fixed as obtained by setting to zero the
probabilities of all elements of the sample space for which B is false (does not
occur), and multiplying the probabilities of those elements for which B is true
by a common factor, 1/ Pr(B), to renormalize them, so that the probabilities of
mutually-exclusive sets of events sum to one. That this is a reasonable procedure
is evident if one imagines an ensemble and thinks about the subensemble of cases
in which B occurs. It makes no sense to define a probability conditioned on B if
Pr(B) = 0, as there is no way to renormalize zero probability by multiplying it by
a constant in order to get something finite.
In the case of quantum systems, once an appropriate sample space has been de-
fined the rules for manipulating probabilities are precisely the same as for any other
(“classical”) probabilities. The probabilities must be nonnegative, they must sum
to 1, and conditional probabilities are defined in precisely the manner discussed
above. Sometimes it seems as if quantum probabilities obey different rules from
what one is accustomed to in classical physics. The reason is that quantum the-
ory allows a multiplicity of sample spaces, that is, decompositions of the identity,
which are often incompatible with one another. In classical physics a single sam-
ple space is usually sufficient, and in cases in which one may want to use more
than one, for example alternative coarse grainings of the phase space, the different
possibilities are always compatible with each other. However, in quantum theory
different sample spaces are generally incompatible with one another, so one has
to learn how to choose the correct sample space needed for discussing a particular
physical problem, and how to avoid carelessly combining results from incompati-
ble sample spaces. Thus the difficulties one encounters in quantum mechanics have
to do with choosing a sample space. Once the sample space has been specified, the
quantum rules are the same as the classical rules.
There have been, and no doubt will continue to be, a number of proposals for
introducing special “quantum probabilities” with properties which violate the usual
rules of probability theory: probabilities which are negative numbers, or complex
numbers, or which are not tied to a Boolean algebra of projectors, etc. Thus far,
none of these proposals has proven helpful in untangling the conceptual difficulties
of quantum theory. Perhaps someday the situation will change, but until then there
seems to be no reason to abandon standard probability theory, a mode of reasoning
which is quite well understood, both formally and intuitively, and replace it with
some scheme which is deficient in one or both of these respects.