
CORPORATE VALUATION – RISK 6-53
v.05/13/94 v-1.1
p.01/14/00
UNIT SUMMARY
We began this unit with a discussion of the process for calculating the
expected return on a security and the expected total cash flow from an
investment or project. We then developed the methodology for
quantifying the risk associated with expected cash flows. We used the
two measurements of variation and standard deviation to determine the
amount of volatility among possible cash flows or returns. Standard
deviation represents the total risk for a security or portfolio. A lower
standard deviation indicates less volatility and, therefore, a lower
amount of risk.
Our discussion of portfolio risk indicated that by investing with
different companies and different industries, the riskiness of a
portfolio may be reduced. This process of diversifying the portfolio
only affects the unsystematic or company-specific risk associated
with the securities in a portfolio. Systematic (market) risk cannot be
eliminated by diversification because the unexpected events that
create systematic risk affect all companies in the market.
The relevant risk of holding a security is the individual security's
contribution to the systematic risk of the portfolio. The beta
coefficient reflects the relative movement of a stock as compared
with the market portfolio. An average-risk stock has a beta coefficient
of 1.0, which means that if the market moves up by 10%, the stock
will, on average, move up by 10%. A lower beta indicates that a stock
is less volatile than the market portfolio and, therefore, has less
systematic risk. Portfolio beta is the weighted average of the beta
coefficients of the individual securities in the portfolio.
The beta coefficient is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
to calculate the required rate of return for an individual security. The
rate of return that investors require to invest in a security includes the
risk-free rate plus a market (systematic) risk premium. The size of the
market risk premium depends on the amount of compensation required
by investors for assuming risk. The CAPM is the most widely-
accepted method for setting market prices because it is sensitive to
systematic risk.