species and calculate their time
of
separation. Unfortunately,
our
estimates
of
mutation rates are questionable. Microsatellites grant an
exception, because their mutation rate is so high (somewhat less than
one
per
thousand) that it can
be
evaluated without excessive diffi-
culty.
The
pattern
of
microsatellite mutatipn is a little complicated,
because mutations happen in both directions (repeats can increase
and decrease),
and
the
change
is
not necessarily limited to one repeat
at a time. Fortunately,
Genethon has made an excellent analysis
of
the
mutation rate and pattern on its 5,264 microsatellites. In an
ear~
lier analysis, in which
the
pattern
of
mutation was considered to
be
simply that
of
addition
and
subtraction
of
repeats
one
at
a time, we
obtained a value
vel)' close to
that
of
mitocllondrial Eve. But consid-
eration
of
the
observed mutation pattern, in particular
the
frequency
with which
more
than
one
repeat is added
or
lost, decreased
the
esti-
mate
of
the first migration
out
of
Africa conSiderably. and brought it
down to
80,000 years, vel)' close
to
the
archeological estimate. We
are currently accumulating further data
on
more microsatellites and
hope to publish a fairly accurate evaluation
of
this important date,
whicll is central in
the
evolution
of
modem
humans.
We
have called this method absolute genetic dating, because it
does
not
rely
on
paleontological dates, which are scarce
and
rarely
reliable. Neither, then, does
it
consider
the
vel)' approximate calibra-
tion curve
on
which
the
so-called molecular clock
is
based; even its
theoretical shape, based on a shaky
hypothesiS, might
be
challenged.
All
genetic dating methods that rely
on
mutation rates are inde-
pendent
of
paleontolOgical dates, and in this sense they are
"absolute."
They
are
of
course as good as
the
available mutation rate
estimates. Those provided for microsatellites
by
the
Genethon
group are very good,
but
they have
been
calculated for only a
velY
special group
of
microsatellites (CACA
...
).
This value is now fre-
quently used for
other
microsatellites,
but
really
there
is no good
evidence
that
this extrapolation is permissible. Application
of
muta-
tion rates
of
other
genes, in particular Single nucleotide polymor-
phisms
("snips»),
is
not
satisfactol)'. They are extremely
low,
on
the
order
of
1 in 100 million
per
nucleotide
per
generation,
or
less,
and
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