the road Ahead 155
social and traditional factors. They need to have a large middle class,
an educated population, and a tradition of relying on the rule of law in
which private enterprise can flourish. They need to have social stabil-
ity, in which religious and ethnic differences are somehow peacefully
managed and resolved. None of these factors or traditions are present
in Afghanistan. So the hopes that a democratic, central regime, sup-
ported by U.S. and NATO troops, would bring peace to the country
seemed to be working against the facts.
Another worrying sign in Afghanistan was the emergence of a
strong, second in command under Mullah Omar as leader of the Afghan
Taliban. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, although he always deferred to
Omar as the supreme leader, commanded the forces on the ground.
Baradar was noted for his efficient control, bringing together the disor-
ganized Afghan Taliban, and for his use of modern technology, includ-
ing the Internet, satellite telephones, and motorcycles. He demanded
accurate reports, backed up by video camera footage, of every attack on
Americans. Taliban troops would receive cash bounties for the numbers
of Americans they could report killed, carefully and accurately assigned
by Baradar. He paid them with money still flowing from rich supporters
of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in some of the oil-exporting nations.
In 2009, another worrying sign was that casualties among British and
U.S. troops climbed to the highest numbers of the whole war. The Tal-
iban’s roadside bombs continued to take a toll on lives. General Stanley
McChrystal warned that U.S. casualties were running at record levels and
would remain so for months to come. In early August, he warned that the
Taliban were moving beyond their traditional strongholds in southern
Afghanistan and beginning to threaten areas in the north and west.
Some believed the Taliban had begun to gain the upper hand,
despite the fact that the United States was spending more than $4 bil-
lion a month on the war in Afghanistan. Evidence of the rising tide of
violence could be seen through the summer of 2009. On June 29, the
provincial police chief of Kandahar Province was shot and killed in a
shootout between police and an Afghan security squad that had been
trained by U.S. forces. On July 6, in Kunduz, in the north, a roadside
bomb killed six people, including two Americans. On August 4, Tal-
iban insurgents fired rockets directly into the capital Kabul. In Herat
Province, far to the west, on August 6, four more U.S. Marines were
killed by a roadside bomb. Several car bombs set off simultaneously
killed at least 41 people in Kandahar on August 25. And on December
30, a Jordanian considered to be a trusted informant was allowed into
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