Introduction to strategic management accounting
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Introduction to strategic management accounting Chapter 1
Expected valueiscomputed
bymultiplyingthevalueof
eachpossibleoutcomebythe
probabilityofthatoutcome,
andsummingtheresults.a
matrixcanbeausefulway
torepresentandanalysea
scenariowherethereisa
rangeofpossibleoutcomes
andavarietyofpossible
responses.
RISK VS UNCERTAINTY
Theterm‘risk’isused
forscenarioswhereitis
possibletoidentifydifferent
possibleoutcomesand
assignprobabilitiestothem
and‘uncertainty’isusedfor
scenarioswherethisisnot
possible
Sensitivity analysisisa
techniquewhichissimilarto
the‘whatif?’facilityprovided
byacomputerspreadsheet.
byusingthistechniqueitis
possibletoestablishwhich
estimates(variables)are
morecriticalthanothersin
affectingadecision.
*sensitivitymargin=[npV/
pVofuncertaincashow]*
100
Themaximax ruleappliestoan
optimistwhoseekstomaximise
themaximumpossiblegain
ofpossibleoutcomes.The
maximumruleinvolves
selectingthealternativethat
maximisestheminimum
payoffachievable.pessimist!
Theminimaxregretstrategy
istheonethatminimisesthe
maximumregret.‘soreloser’
whodoesnotwishtomakethe
wrongdecision.