Chapter 13: Measuring performance
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Measuring financial security: liquidity and gearing
A long-term objective of a company should be survival, as well as growth. It is
therefore appropriate to measure financial risk. Measures of financial risk include:
liquidity risk, measured by ratios such as the current ratio or quick ratio, or by
cash flow analysis
gearing or debt/equity ratios, which measure the potential risk to a company
from its funding structure.
Liquidity can be important. Liquidity means having cash or access to cash to make
payments when these are due. For example, a company must have cash to pay
salaries and wages of its employees, and to pay suppliers and other creditors. In
some cases, profitable companies might become insolvent because they cannot pay
their debts.
A lack of liquidity also restricts flexibility of action. A company that is short of cash
is often unable to take advantage of new opportunities that might arise, because
they do not have the money to spend.
Gearing and debt levels can also be important. Highly-geared companies are
exposed to the risk of a big fall in earnings per share whenever there is a fall in their
operating profits. When they borrow at variable rates of interest, an increase in
interest rates will also reduce profitability.
Historical profits and expected future profits
The main objective of a commercial company might be to maximise the wealth of
shareholders. Wealth is increased by paying dividends and through increases in the
share price. A common assumption in financial management is that the share price
of a company depends on expectations of future profits and dividends.
During the late 1990s and early 2000s, the share prices of newly-formed ‘new
technology’ companies reached very high levels, even though these companies were
making heavy losses. The view of investors at the time was that high values for new
technology companies were justified by the expectation of enormous future profits.
The high share prices reached by these companies are now known as the ‘dot.com
bubble’, which collapsed in 2001. In 2000 and 2001 the share prices of these
companies collapsed, and many went out of business.
It was eventually recognised that most of the new technology companies would
never compete successfully against larger ‘traditional’ companies. Most never
became profitable before they went out of business or were taken over at low prices.
A lesson from the ‘dot.com bubble’ is that future share prices (and shareholder
wealth) will depend on future profits and dividends. However, it is important to
convince investors that the company will be profitable in the future. Historical
returns and profits, and trends in profitability, might provide some guide to what
profits might be in the future.