bank of the Estuary with an estimated con-
struction cost of £4B [US$5.7B])
•
Cardiff-Weston (Lavernock Point to Brean
Down) Barrage (8.46GW scheme, com-
monly known as the ‘Severn Barrage’, with
an estimated cost of construction of £20.9B
[US$29.9B ]) being considered for a 2030
timescale.
This technical feasibility assessment is the first
of several such procedures, and will be fol-
lowed by a quantitative study (energy outputs
and CO
2
savings), levelised cost estimates, and
a qualitative study (environmental, social/
regional and economic effects.
T
HE SURVIVING CANDIDATES
Beachley is the small es t barrage alignment
considered by the study (625MW) and is
located furthest upstream. This means it
does not impact on the maj or ports and
causes the least, although still potentially sig-
nificant, intertidal habitat loss as it is locat-
INSIGHT
WWW.WATERPOWERMAGAZINE.COM APRIL 2009 13
times the cost of other schemes on the pro-
posed shortlist. Unlike the other options, its
construction could not be funded by the pri-
vate sector alone and taxpayers/consumers
would likely bear a large part of the cost
burden and risk. However, this barrage
could also make a significant contribution
to the UK’s energy goals and will therefore
be studied further. This will allow the scale
of enviro nmental impact and options for
mitigation and compensation to be studied.
N
EXT PHASE
The next phase of the feasibility study will
make a strategic environmental assessment,
considering the impacts of the various short-
listed schemes – impact on the construction
supply chain, on the energy market and grid,
and on the ecosystem. The consequences of
compliance with environmental protection
legislation and the means of ensuring that
environmental effects could be mitigated
where possible, and compensated for if they
cannot be mitigated, will also be considered.
A further public consultation, pro b a b l y in
2010, will seek views on the evidence gath-
ered and the analysis, and will feed into the
decision on whether a scheme could be
taken forward with government support.
The option not to proceed with any scheme
remains open. If a Severn tidal power pro-
ject does go ahead, the plan ning and con-
senting process may tak e 3-5 yea rs, an d
construction at least a further 5-7 years,
depending on the scheme selected.
R
EDUCING TEN TO FIVE
The ten proposals were assessed for technical
and commercial feasibility against a number
of criteria, (see above) and the following
schemes were provisionally short-listed:
• Shoots Barrage (1.05GW scheme located
downstream of the new Severn road
cros sing with an estimated construction
cost of £3.2B [US$4.6B])
• Beachley Barrage (625MW scheme further
upstream of the first Severn road bridge
with an estimated cost of construction of
£2.3B [US$3.3B])
• Bridgwater Bay Lagoon (1.36GW
impoundment on the Eng lish side of the
estuary with an estimated construction
cost of £3.8B [US$5.4B])
• Fleming Lag oon on Welsh Grounds
(1.36GW impoundment on the Welsh
ed upstream of the confluence with the River
Wye and might have a reduced effect on that
r
iver. Some fish mortality is still likely. This
option would have a smaller energy output
than the majority of other schemes – at least
90% smaller than the e stimated output of
the barrage from Minehead-Aberthaw. It is
the cheapest in terms of capital cost and the
unit cost of energy is a little higher than
Cardiff-Weston, and lower than Bridgwater
Bay lagoon. It is, therefore, one of the most
affordable options. There are concerns over
the potential build up of sediment behind a
barrage at Beachley, which may impact on
future maintenance costs and feasibility. This
needs to be studied further. Given the afford-
ability, unit cost and relatively smaller envi-
ronmental and shipping impact, this option
was included in the short-list despite its rel-
atively small energy output.
Shoots is the largest barrage that could be
taken forward with limited government
involvement in risk and cost bearing. T he
Concrete
structure
housing sluices
and turbines on
a small barrage
such as Shoots
Background to the study
Is a tidal scheme needed?
There is some doubt about how much a tidal scheme is needed. The draft Renewable Energy Strategy
suggests that the scheme may not be essential to meeting 2020 renewables targets and must be
assessed against other alternatives. Parsons Brinkerhoff’s analysis of comparative costs shows that
while Severn tidal power is expensive compared to other renewable sources it could reduce the cost of
meeting the UK’s renewable energy target of supplying 15% of energy from renewable sources by 2020.
Risks and benefits
Careful consideration of the benefits, consequences, risks and costs is needed. The Severn Estuar y,
which could be altered utterly, is an internationally important nature conservation site. Flood risk impacts
have been considered. Some land drainage systems would be affected and might require pumped
drainage as a remedy.
Expected social and economic benefits include £620M (US$887M) to £3.5B (US$5B) injected into local
economies, and new road and rail links that might be needed after 2025 or so.
Finance
It is estimated that all proposals would require some government support through planning and possibly
construction phases owing to their high capital costs and the scale of regulatory risks, particularly on the
environmental side, to be borne by consumers and taxpayers. The private sector could operate any
scheme constructed. For the smaller schemes with an estimated constr uction cost of £2-4 billion the
private sector could reasonably be expected to own, finance and take on most of the construction risk,
provided there is sufficient revenue certainty. However, a larger scheme (such as the Cardiff-Weston
barrage, (£20.9B [US$29.9B], a figure that includes the estimated cost of compensator y habitats) with
annual output of 17 TWh would need government assistance to finance its construction. All proposed
schemes would require revenue support during the financing lifetime (the first 35 years) to remain
competitive with non-r enewable sources. Beyond this period, the schemes could generate power for a low
upkeep cost for the remainder of their estimated 120 year minimum lifespan.
Some schemes could work in combination; for example a lagoon with a barrage further upstream or a
combination of lagoons. Such options will be considered by the feasibility study.
Transmission
A Severn tidal power project would also require investment in new transmission assets, mainly grid
connections, depending on the size and location of the scheme. The balancing of intermittent but
predictable power generation and demand will require consideration, particularly for the larger schemes.
These aspects will be considered in greater detail in the next phase of the feasibility study.
Table 2. Summary of
short-listed proposals
Project Installed Cost
construction capacity
Shoots barrage 1.05 GW £3.2B
Beachley barrage 625 MW £2.3B
Fleming lagoon 1.36 GW £4B
Bridgewater Bay lagoon 1.36 GW £3.8B
Cardiff-Weston barrage 8.64 GW £20.9B