46
S.
Brianzoni,
C.
Mammana,
and
E.
Michetti
In
a similar way we
can
derive
the
weight
ed
average wealth
of
group
2:
Finally, we define
Wh
,t as
the
weighted average wealth
of
group
h in
the
total
weighted average we
alth
, i.
e.
Wh
,t = Wh,
t/
Lh
Wh,t
wher
e Wh,t =
nh
,tWh,t
and
h =
1,2.
In
th
e following, we will consider
the
dynamics
of
the
state
variable
Wt
:=
wl,t
-
W2
,t, i.e.
the
difference in
th
e relative weighted
average wealths. As a consequence,
the
dynamics
of
th
e
state
variable
Wt
can
be described by
the
following system:
where:
{
Fl
+ 1
Wt
+1 = G
F2
-1
G
if
ffit+1
~
mt
if
mt+1 <
mt
FI
=
_21~.::n:'
:
1(I-Wt)[R+Z2
,
t(pt+1-r)],
F2
= 2 1 i::'+
1
(1
+ Wt)[R + ZI,t(Pt+1 - r)],
G =
(1
- Wt)[R +
Z2,t(Pt+1
-
r)]
+
(1
+ Wt)[R + Zl,t(PHl - r)].
In
this
work we assume
that
price
adjustments
are
operated
by a
mar-
ket
maker
who knows
the
fundamental
price, see Chiarella
et
al.[4]
. After
assuming an i.i.d. divide
nd
process
and
zero
supply
, we obtain:
Pt+l-Pt
(I+Wt
l-
W
t)
=---'-------=--
= a
ZI
t
---
+
Z2
t
---
.
Pt
'2'
2
We
analy
ze
the
case in which agents
of
type
1
are
fundamentalists
, believ-
ing
that
pric
es
return
to
th
eir
fundam
e
nt
al value, while
traders
of
type
2
are
chartists,
who do
not
tak
e
into
account
the
fundam
e
ntal
value
but
th
eir pre-
diction selection is based
upon
a simple linear
trading
rul
e.
In
other
words,
we assume
that
EI
,
t(pt
+d =
p*
and
E
2
,t(pt+d = apt
with
a >
O.
Therefore
the
demand
functions
ar
e given by:
1
Zl,t
=
A0'2
(1
+ r)(Xt - 1),
1
Z2
,t =
A0'2
[a
- 1 + r(Xt - 1)],
where
Xt
=
~
is
the
fundamental
price ratio.
p,
The
final nonlinear
dynamical
system
T is
written
in te
rms
of
the
s
tate
variables Xt,
mt
and
Wt:
mt+1
=
h(
Xt, Wt) =
tanh
{
,6
/2
[,\~2
(Xt
- a)
[2'\"'0'2
(Xt - 2 + a + 2r(Xt -
1)
+(Xt - a)Wt) + r(Xt -
1)]-
en,