RAND Corporation. Social Science for Counterterrorism
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This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series.
RAND monographs present major research findings that address the
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Paul K. Davis, Kim Cragin, Editors
Darcy Noricks, Todd C. Helmus, Christopher Paul, Claude
Berrebi, Brian A. Jackson, Gaga Gvineria, Michael Egner,
and Benjamin Bahney, Contributors
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
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NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Social Science
for Counterterrorism
Putting the Pieces Together
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The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the
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iii
Preface
is monograph surveys social-science literature relating to counter-
terrorism. It also takes first steps toward integrating the knowledge
reflected in that literature and suggesting theories and methods to
inform analysis and modeling. Our project was sponsored by the Mod-
eling and Simulation Coordination Office of the Office of the Secretary
of Defense, with oversight provided by James Bexfield, the Director of
Planning and Analytical Support in OSD’s Program Analysis and Eval-
uation. Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed
to the editors and project leaders: Paul K. Davis (Santa Monica, Cali-
fornia; 310-451-6912; pdavis@rand.org) and Kim Cragin (Arlington,
Virginia; 703-413-1100, extension 5666; cragin@rand.org).
is research was conducted within the International Security
and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research
Institute, a federally funded research and development center spon-
sored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Uni-
fied Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine
Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on RAND’s International Security and
Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He
can be reached by email at James Dobbins@rand.org; by phone at
703-413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation,
1200 S. Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202. More information about
RAND is available at www.rand.org.
v
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Figures
............................................................................xiii
Tables
..............................................................................xv
Summary
........................................................................ xvii
Acknowledgments
.............................................................. liii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ....................................................................... 1
Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin
Background
......................................................................... 1
e Challenge Posed
............................................................ 1
Approach
............................................................................ 2
Challenge and Objectives
....................................................... 2
Organizing Questions
........................................................... 3
Scope and Character of Inquiry
.................................................. 3
Definitions
........................................................................ 3
Disciplinary Scope
............................................................... 4
Structuring the Research and Monograph
...................................... 5
Analytical Guidance
............................................................... 7
Bibliography
........................................................................ 9
Endnotes
...........................................................................10
CHAPTER TWO
e Root Causes of Terrorism .................................................11
Darcy M.E. Noricks
Introduction
.......................................................................11
vi Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
Objectives .......................................................................11
e Political Violence Literature
..............................................11
Factors
..............................................................................13
Precipitant Versus Permissive Factors
.........................................13
Categories of Permissive Factors
..............................................14
Conclusions: Making Sense of the Factors
.................................... 42
Implications for Strategy, Policy, and Research
...............................47
Critical Tasks for Future Research: What Should We Tackle First?
....... 50
Methodological and Measurement Problems
............................... 50
Leaders Versus Followers
......................................................52
Distinguishing Types of Terrorism
...........................................53
Bibliography
.......................................................................55
Endnotes
.......................................................................... 68
CHAPTER THREE
Why and How Some People Become Terrorists ............................71
Todd C. Helmus
Introduction
.......................................................................71
Radicalizing Social Groups
......................................................74
General Observations
...........................................................74
Terrorist Recruitment
......................................................... 77
Bottom-Up Peer Groups
......................................................78
Alienation
.......................................................................81
Desire for Change
.................................................................82
Political Change: Desire for an Independent State and to Sow
Anarchy
.....................................................................83
Religious Changes: Caliphate and Millennialism
......................... 84
Single-Issue Change: Environmental Rights and Anti-Abortion
........ 84
Discrimination
.................................................................85
Desire to Respond to Grievance
................................................ 86
Personal Grievance: Revenge
................................................. 87
Collective Grievance: Duty to Defend
.......................................89
Identity
.......................................................................... 90
Perceived Rewards
................................................................91
Religious Rewards
..............................................................91
Social Status
.................................................................... 92
Contents vii
Financial Rewards ..............................................................93
Friendship
........................................................................93
Excitement
...................................................................... 94
Relationships and Hierarchies
.................................................. 94
Possible Implications for Policy
................................................. 98
Bibliography
...................................................................... 99
Endnotes
......................................................................... 109
CHAPTER FOuR
How Do Terrorists Generate and Maintain Support? .................. 113
Christopher Paul
Introduction
..................................................................... 113
Objectives
...................................................................... 113
Disciplinary Approaches to Studying Support for Terrorism
............ 113
What Do We Mean by “Support”?
......................................... 115
Relationships to Topics in Other Papers
................................... 117
Support Factors
.................................................................. 117
Types of Support Needed and Sources for at Support
................ 117
Individual Decisions to Support
............................................ 121
Cautions, Consensus, and Disagreements
................................... 134
Cautions
........................................................................ 134
Consensus
...................................................................... 135
Disagreements
................................................................. 136
Making Sense of the Myriad of Factors
...................................... 136
Implications for Strategy and Policy
.......................................... 140
Bibliography
..................................................................... 142
Endnotes
......................................................................... 150
CHAPTER FIvE
e Economics of Terrorism and Counterterrorism:
What Matters and Is Rational-Choice eory Helpful?
........... 151
Claude Berrebi
Introduction
..................................................................... 151
Relationships Between Terrorism and Postulated Root Causes
........... 152
Conventional Wisdom
....................................................... 152
Poverty and Education
....................................................... 153
viii Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
Religion ........................................................................ 164
Mental Health and Irrationality
............................................ 167
Summary
....................................................................... 169
Rational-Choice Approach
..................................................... 169
Defining Terms: What Is a Rational-Choice Model?
.................... 169
Evidence
........................................................................ 170
What Might Rational-Choice Models Look Like?
....................... 179
Potential Implications for Counterterrorism
................................. 192
Bibliography
..................................................................... 194
Endnotes
......................................................................... 202
CHAPTER SIX
Organizational Decisionmaking by Terrorist Groups .................. 209
Brian A. Jackson
Introduction
..................................................................... 209
How Different Disciplines Approach is Question
..................... 210
Relationship to Companion Papers
......................................... 211
Understanding Terrorist Group Decisionmaking
........................... 212
e Implications of Group Structure and Functioning on
Decisionmaking
.......................................................... 214
Factors Influencing Group Decisionmaking
............................... 221
Nature of the Evidence on Terrorist Group Decisionmaking:
Agreements and Disagreements
........................................ 233
Relationships and Hierarchies
................................................. 233
Implications for Strategy and Policy
.......................................... 235
Bibliography
..................................................................... 241
Endnotes
......................................................................... 249
CHAPTER SEvEN
How Does Terrorism End? ................................................... 257
Gaga Gvineria
Introduction
..................................................................... 257
Modes of Decline
............................................................... 258
Processes, Developments, and Factors Contributing to the End
of Terrorism
................................................................. 261
Substantial Success
........................................................... 261