ii The objectivity of large-scale historical inquiry 249
of the "Western world"; and, for want of more positive orientation, it has
taken a negative form. But, as we have seen, there are no such closed
worlds, at least within the Oikoumene; an attempt to construct a series
of separate historical fields in such terms leaves too many and too crucial
loose ends. The answer is not to erect a series of "world histories" on the
model of our earlier Western one, but to reject that model, and its very
methods, altogether, to construct a new sort of world history on new
lines.
If Oikoumenic history begins to be rightly understood, and also
the place of the Oikoumene in world history at large, it is evidently
possible to develop world history which shall be genuinely worldwide,
but yet free of the
a priori
system-formation associated with the improper
sort of "philosophy of history."
A second line of attack on
Universalgeschichte
has arisen from the de-
mand for historians to develop general rules about the dynamics of histori-
cal
processes.
What causes - not this or that revolution, but - revolutions
in general? What causes the rise and fall of dynasties, states, cultures,
religions, not just in given cases, but as such? What causes the expansion
of a people, the contraction of an economy, the florescence of an art or a
literature? It has been felt that for history to be scientific, it must not
merely (as has been the orthodox position since the nineteenth century)
use exactingly objective methods in determining particular facts; it must
produce generalities as universal and undated as those of
physics.
It must
be a "social science" - like sociology and anthropology, but with a differ-
ent starting point, if an almost equally universal final domain. For those
who have been consistent in this concern, "philosophy of history" in the
Hegelian sense has been as much anathema as for the more orthodox
detail-historians; though perhaps for a different reason. Though a man
like Toynbee seems to combine the two approaches, scientism and
a priori
universal pattern building, this is chiefly because of
his
utter lack of meth-
odological clarity. Actually, the traditional "philosophy of history" has
always been sufficiently historically-minded to look for the uniqueness in
historical developments, and for
a
unique way in which they combine into
a whole - it has not produced general laws, in fact, but the analysis of a
single unrepeatable sequence. (Even the more consistent cyclists, from
Vico on, for all their admission of a sort of repetition of type, offer little to
those who want a host of general rules; for they, far from abstracting
various types of historical dynamics from the particular context of
a
given
total historical development, anchor their whole analysis more undetacha-
bly than ever to such overall developments.)
This interest in historical dynamics as such is a worthy concern. It is
obvious that, moreover, without a proper interregional historical back-