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PAPER AND PAPERBOARD PACKAGING TECHNOLOGY
has restricted the commercial development of alternative energy sources. It is also
the reason why known oil reserves are projected on a relatively short time scale, since
exploration is expensive. More oil is constantly being discovered within this time
scale and technology is extracting a higher proportion from existing oilfields.
Technology allied to a need to reduce cost has ensured that we use energy more
efficiently. The energy demand has increased but the price has remained relatively
stable and even fallen in real terms.
Nevertheless, in time the earth’s resources of fossil fuels on which we currently
depend for the greater part of our total energy consumption, such as gas, oil and
coal, will be exhausted. However, technology applied to known reserves of oil,
gas and coal, together with the discovery of new sources, continues to extend this
time scale. Additionally, there are reserves in tar sands and beyond that shale oil.
There is currently some production from Canadian tar sands and it would only
require a modest rise in the price of oil for a greater production from tar sands
to become commercially available, which could double current oil reserves
(Lomborg, 2002b).
Shale oil was exploited in Germany in 1595 and the first patent was issued in
London in 1696 (Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2001) but whilst the reserves are
huge, the technology required to use this material commercially is complicated
and hence expensive. It is nevertheless a potential source.
Conventional fossil fuel–reserves data given by Lomborg (2002c) are: at the
present rate of energy consumption, oil – 40 years, natural gas – 60 years and
coal – 230 years. The use of coal as fuel is less favoured today because of the high
cost due to the removal of noxious emissions. Oil and natural gas will eventually
be more difficult to find and use and therefore become more expensive at which
point other fossil fuel reserves and alternative sources of energy, which today are
more expensive than oil, will become commercially attractive alternatives. Renewable
energy sources are by definition sustainable, and it is possible that other, environ-
mental, priorities will be applied to the choice of energy source within the time
scale for oil to become more expensive.
A more likely scenario therefore is that we will be considering non-fossil alter-
natives sooner rather than later in order to reduce carbon emissions. The EU has
a target of increasing the proportion of energy derived from renewable sources to
12% by 2010.
Currently, the main non-fossil alternatives which are used today are themselves
subject to constraints for expansion. For environmental reasons hydroelectric
schemes are unlikely to be significantly expanded and the same conclusion, though
for different reasons, applies to nuclear energy.
In industrialised countries, only a small proportion of energy is being supplied
from other, renewable, sources such as wind, waves, solar, geothermal, landfill
gas and biomass which includes wood. In Europe, in 2001, this proportion was
slightly less than 6%.
The subject of wood (biomass) as an energy source for society in developed
industrial societies is of interest to the paper and paperboard industry as it would