Лекции - Трейдинг на FOREX (на английском языке)
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New York. It means that the “High” and “Low” of the trading day were formed in no more
than 8 hours, and, for the rest of the trading day, the market was moving inside the
already settled range during the Asian session.
Sometimes, similar cycles are highly visible, and sometimes they are less obvious.
Their variety is huge. From that great number of various cycles, which I had to observe
trading the basic currencies, the following were the most memorable:
• The market formed its daily range during the same session; (Figures 4.5-4.7)
• Directly before the New Your session (10-20 minutes prior to its beginning), the
market formed the top or bottom of the daily range. For example, within the time
left until the end of the day, the market traded inside the already formed range;
(Figure 4.8)
• The daily range activity was divided between sessions, and, during each session,
the market expanded the previous range by 1/3 of the size of the daily range in
one direction or other; (Figure 4.9)
• The market completely formed its daily range by the end of the European trading
session, and traded inside the already formed range for the rest of the day;
(Figure 4.10)
• Within 3 hours before the end of the European session, the market almost
doubled its trading range; (Figure 4.11)
• The market completely formed its daily range within 3-4 hours, and then traded
only inside the already formed range; (Figure 4.12)
• The market increased its daily range significantly (40-60%) in an unusual time of
the trading day, i.e. in a period between 3-5 p.m. NY time (8-10 p.m. GMT).
(Figure 4.13)
Figure 4.5
Figure 4.6
Figure 4.7
Figure 4.8
Figure 4.9
Figure 4.10
Figure 4.11
Figure 4.12
Figure 4.13
Figures 4.5 – 4.13 These pictures illustrate different market
patterns in their relation to time matters. As you know, timing
is a very important issue in the art of trading, and the ability
to identify frequently changing behavioral market cycles can
be helpful to a trader.
There were still a great number of other cycles of market activity, and all these possible
variations cannot be listed. Because we can identify such cycles, we have a perfect
opportunity to make a much more exact probability evaluation of the market movement
during the following period of time in one direction or the other direction; and to
reasonably plan trader’s time. As a trader discovers this regularity, it allows him to
change the schedule of his presence in the market, avoiding periods of lowered activity
and participating in high amplitude fluctuations. Some cyclic laws even allow you to
trade automatically by placing preliminary stops and limits at certain established price
levels.
Unfortunately, it is impossible to forecast the end of one cycle and the start of a new
one, and also changes in market behavior. There could be many variations, and one or
several distinctive features can characterize all of them typically. There are common
periods of increased and decreased activity, and some similarity in a sequence of intra
day fluctuations during all the cycles. As such cycles basically last from several weeks
to several months, the trader almost always has enough time not only to identify change
in character of market behavior, but also to use them in full measure for reception of the
maximum profit. I try to reach the optimum trading results by selecting appropriate
trading templates from my standard set, and adjusting them to a current situation. The
adjustment usually occurs at the moment of opening a new position on a timing scale