Лекции - Трейдинг на FOREX (на английском языке)
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Template #2.6(A). “Head & Shoulders” formation.
1. Brief situation description:
The market is forming a potential “Head and Shoulders”
formation (inverted H&S formation as well) on hourly or daily
charts, which cannot be identified as such since it is only a
projection at the moment. The projection can be made at the
moment when the market has already formed what may appear
to be the left “shoulder,” the “head” and the first half of the
right “shoulder.” It works best when seen on hourly and daily
charts.
2. Currency, recommended for
trade:
All majors and crosses.
3. Trade characteristics:
Trade of opportunity.
4. Trade (entry point) suggestions:
Enter the market at the projected point where the projected top
(bottom) of the second “shoulder” could be formed.
5. Entry time:
Any time.
6. Entry execution:
Limit or market order.
7. Stop-loss placed:
Depends on the time frame and the scale of the potential
formation. The trailing stop can also be used if some floating
profit accumulated.
8. Reverse if stops triggered:
Not recommended.
9. Target(custom choice):
Measure objective. (P1)
10. Potential profit estimation:
N/A
11. Profit probability evaluation:
“Below average”
12. Risk evaluation:
“Above average”
13. P/L Ratio:
“Positive”
14. Potential clues in favor of the
open position:
N/A
15. Possible complications,
disadvantages and risk warnings,
and advice to avoid them:
This trade is not easy to plan in advance. A good imagination
should help, but, from the other side, it can be excessive too.
The trade also requires a lot of practical experience from a
trader.
16. Additional notices,
recommendations and trading tips:
In case successful entry, the profit usually is very significant,
especially if to enter the position in accordance with a bigger
scale charts. It is rather recommended for a longer-term
positional trading than for an intra day trade.
2.6 A
Template 2.6(B). “Head & Shoulders” formation.
1. Brief situation description:
A “Head and Shoulders” formation (inverted H&S formation as
well) is fully formed on hourly or daily charts.
2. Currency, recommended for
trade:
All majors and crosses.
3. Trade characteristics:
Classic (textbook style).
4. Trade (entry point) suggestions:
Enter the market on the break of the neckline.
5. Entry time:
Any time.
6. Entry execution:
Entry-stop order.
7. Stop-loss placed:
1. The opposite side of the
day range.
2. Above (below) the top
(bottom) of the right shoulder.
8. Reverse if stops triggered:
Recommended.
9. Target(custom choice):
1. Measure
objective.
(P1)
2. End of the
day. (P2)
3. Average
daily range.
(P3)
4. Other.
10. Potential profit estimation:
N/A
11. Profit probability evaluation:
“Average”
12. Risk evaluation:
“Average”
13. P/L Ratio:
“Positive”
14. Potential clues in favor of the
open position:
N/A
15. Possible complications,
disadvantages and risk warnings,
and advice to avoid them:
N/A
16. Additional notices,
recommendations and trading tips:
Since this formation is classic (that means it is widely known
and easy recognizable), the chance that the market will behave
the way exactly as it’s described in TA textbooks is
questionable. I don’t usually trade on it without having some
other reasons to enter a position at the break of a neckline of
H&S. However, sometimes it works and therefore cannot be
ignored completely. Usually the harder the identification, the
better it works.
2.6 B
Template #2.7. “Double (triple) Top (bottom)” formation.
1. Brief situation description:
A “Double (triple) Top (bottom)” formation is fully formed on
hourly or daily charts.
2. Currency, recommended for
trade:
All majors and crosses.
3. Trade characteristics:
Classic (textbook recommended).
4. Trade (entry point) suggestions:
Enter the market on the break of the neckline.
5. Entry time:
Any time.
6. Entry execution:
Entry-stop order.
7. Stop-loss placed:
1. The opposite
side of the day
range.
2. Above (below) the line
drawn through both tops
(bottoms).
3. Other.
8. Reverse if stops triggered:
Recommended.
9. Target(custom choice):
1. Measure
objective.
(P1)
2. End of the
day. (P2)
3. Average
daily range.
(P3)
4. Other.
10. Potential profit estimation:
N/A
11. Profit probability evaluation:
“Below average”
12. Risk evaluation:
“Above average”
13. P/L Ratio:
“Positive”
14. Potential clues in favor of the
open position:
N/A
15. Possible complications,
disadvantages and risk warnings,
and advice to avoid them:
N/A
16. Additional notices,
recommendations and trading tips:
Same thing as with the H&S formation. This formation is also a
classic one, and the chance to see the exact behavioral pattern
prescribed by TA is slim. I don’t usually trade on it without
having some other reasons to enter a position at the neckline
break.
2.7
Template # 3.1(A). “Comb” on daily charts.
1. Brief situation description:
The market has formed on daily charts a specific formation
which I call a “comb.” (This is a sort of short-term trend seen
on any time frame charts including intra day, daily and
weekly.)
2. Currency, recommended for
trade:
USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and other Euro
crosses.
3. Trade characteristics:
Basic (conservative).
4. Trade (entry point) suggestions:
Take a position in the direction of the move on the break of the
trend line limiting a “comb” from one side:
1. Buy on the break of descending line, OR
2. Sell on the break of the ascending line.
5. Entry time:
Any time.
6. Entry execution:
Entry-stop order.
7. Stop-loss placed:
(Cannot be chosen in
accordance with a trader’s
individual situation and
preferences. Money
management principles must
apply.)
On the opposite side of the current day range. (Above the
previous day “High” or below the previous day “Low.”)
8. Reverse if stops triggered:
Recommended. (Automatic and simultaneous with stops.)
9. Target(custom choice):
1. Average daily
range. (P1)
2. End of the day.
(P2)
3. Other.
10. Potential profit estimation:
N/A
11. Profit probability evaluation:
“Average” to “High”
12. Risk evaluation:
“Average” to “Low”
13. P/L Ratio:
“Positive”
14. Potential advantages in favor
of the open position:
1. The position was open in
the direction of the medium
trend.
2. The position was open in
the direction of the main
move of the previous day.
RW#1: The position was open
against the direction of the
medium-term trend.
A#1: Move your stops closer
and place them above (below)
the previous local extreme
formed the same day.
15. The most probable
complications, disadvantages and
risk warnings, and advice to avoid
them:
RW#2: The position was open
against the main move of the
previous day.
A#2: Same as above.
3.1 A
3.1 B
1. Brief situation description:
The market has formed on intra day charts a comb formation.
2. Currency, recommended for
trade:
USD/CHF, USD/JPY and some EUR crosses.
3. Trade characteristics:
Optional (risky).
4. Trade (entry point) suggestions:
Enter the market on the break of the line.
5. Entry time:
Any time.
6. Entry execution:
Entry-stop order.
7. Stop-loss placed:
1. The opposite
side of the day
range.
2. The nearest technical
level.
3. Other.
8. Reverse if stops triggered:
Recommended.
9. Target(custom choice):
1. End of the day
(P1)
2. Average daily range.
(P2)
4. Other.
10. Potential profit estimation:
N/A
11. Profit probability evaluation:
“Average”
12. Risk evaluation:
“Average”
13. P/L Ratio:
“Neutral”
14. Potential clues in favor of the
open position:
1. The position was open in the direction of the main move of
the day.
2. The break of the line occurred simultaneously with forming
of the new “Low” or new “High” of the day.
15. Possible complications,
disadvantages and risk warnings,
and advice to avoid them:
N/A
16. Additional notices,
recommendations and trading tips:
To trade “combs” on intra day basis is a bit problematic. It is
better to trade having some other technical reasons to enter a
position, because trading in limited time and space is always
difficult for a trader. However, sometimes it works extremely
well if you take profit at the right time.
3.1 B