
360 SOLUTIONS
9. certainty, certain, equivalent, risky; certainty, approach, risk, sepa-
rates, value, risk, period’s, risk, preferences, incorporated; net
present, interpreted, reliable, period’s
10. single, capital, risks; applying, discounted, budgeting, rejection, over-
discounting, acceptance, underdiscounted
SHORT ANSWER QUESTIONS
Answers
1. The range is a statistical measure that represents the distance between
the two extreme outcomes of the probability distribution and is calcu-
lated as the difference between the best and the worst (largest and
smallest) possible outcomes. The wider the range, the further apart are
the two extreme possible outcomes, therefore implying increase in risk.
The standard deviation measures each possible outcome’s devia-
tion or difference from the expected value and the likelihood the
outcome will occur. The larger the standard deviation, the greater
the dispersion and, hence, the greater the risk.
Comparison is not feasible between standard deviations of differ-
ent projects’ cash flows if they have different expected values, thus the
coefficient of variation translates the standard deviation of different
probability distributions into a comparable measure. The coefficient
of variation for a probability distribution is the ratio of its standard
deviation to its expected value.
2. Sensitivity analysis illustrates the effects of changes in assumptions by
changing one factor at a time. While this is helpful when isolating one
factor, it is not very realistic when trying to view the effects of many
factors changing during the life of a project. If the change of more
than one variable at a time is desired, then simulation analysis is the
analysis to use.
Simulation analysis is more realistic than sensitivity analysis
because it projects for many variables simultaneously. This method
should only be used with a computer as it is computationally expen-
sive. Simulation analysis examines a project’s total risk with genera-
tions of multiple scenarios. This is useful for the project, but not
useful for the owner’s portfolio, meaning that simulation analysis
does not take into account the toll of the project’s risk on the portfo-
SolCh14 Page 360 Tuesday, December 16, 2003 9:30 AM