Ecology problem challenges (use of energy)
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Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
s
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
Global Mean Temperature Change
Global Mean Temperature Change
Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range and IS92a
Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range and IS92a
Fossil Resources - Use and Occurrences (GtC)
~20,00011,50021706500Total
15,50011,00015003000
Other
occurrences
38104205402850
Resources
unconventional
86080130650
Reserves
conventional
560-1600
*
300-500200-600170-950
Scenarios
IIASA-WEC to 2100
6.71.42.82.5Use 2000
28938103148
Use
1800-2000
TotalGasOilCoal
Sources: Fettweis (1979), IPCC (1996), Rogner (1997), IIASA-WEC (1998) ,WEA (2001).
“discernible influence on climate system” (IPCC). Current atmosphere: 760 GtC
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
-2
-1
0
1
2
900 1100 1300 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500
log (urban/non-urban)
50%
10%
99%
90%
Percent urban
∆t = 315 yrs
Data:pre-1950: own estimates;
1950-2030: UN, 2002.
1%
World Urbanization
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Population Density
1990 and Two Scenarios for 2070
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
0
5
10
15
20
12345
900 1250
1500
1700
1800
67
1900 2000
200
50
100
150
Asia
Africa
Europe
European off-shoots
10 Largest Cities AD 900-2000
900-1800
1900-2000
Data: T. Chandler, 1987; UN, 2003.
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Spatial Energy Use Scenarios
(using GDP as proxy indicator)
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Energy and Electricity Challenges of Cities
• Spatial mismatch demand – supply
(vast imports)
• Enormous power densities
(limiting supply options)
• Vulnerability requires extreme reliability
• Congestion requires high tech solutions
• Assimilative capacity of environment
extremely limited (need for zero
emissions)
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Tokyo Electricity Demand
and Renewable Supply Potential
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)
IPCC SRES and TAR
IPCC SRES and TAR
Technology is at least as
important driving force of
GHG emissions as
population and economic
growth (SRES).
Innovative technology is an
important driving force of
a broad range of GHG
atmospheric stabilization
levels over the next 100
years or more (TAR).
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
US - Decline in Energy R&D and
Innovation
0
50
100
150
200
250
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Patents Granted
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Energy R&D (Billions 1996$)
Patents
Granted
Funds for
Energy R&D