Ecology problem challenges (use of energy)
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Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
The Energy Challenges for the
21
st
Century
Arnulf Grubler
IIASA and Yale University
Club of Amsterdam
Summit for the Future
January 2005
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
The Energy Problem:
• Too little: 2 billion without access to
modern energy services
• Too much: Effluents from fossil fuel use
threaten assimilative capacity of local,
regional, and global environments
• Too dense: Concentration of energy use
and pollution in densely populated urban
areas
• Too slow: Rates of change in energy
systems are 3-10 decades and need early,
anticipatory innovation and investments
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
World Economic Map
Areas of Regions Proportional to 1990 GDP
(mer)
DCs = 16% of world GDP(mer); 35% of world GDP (ppp)
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Population Density
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Electricity Use
Electricty Use
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
Population and
Electricity Use
Energy Challenges for the 21st Century
Arnulf Grubler 2005
GDP
mer
2100
GDP
mer
2050
GDP
mer
1990
Area of Regions
Area of Regions
Proportional
Proportional
to 1990 GDP
to 1990 GDP
mer
mer
World Economic Map
World Economic Map
Carbon Emissions vs. Energy Use in IPCC
SRES Scenarios
Uncertainty 1: Population and GDP growth, prices, policies
Uncertainty 2: Resource availability, technology