rules banned the re-entry of a settled immigrant after he had
been absent to visit his family for more than two years; the
danger that he would on some pretext be refused admission
by a hostile immigration service even if he returned within
the time limit was not negligible. The effect of this was
reinforced by harsh restrictions, still in place, upon those
from the ‘New Commonwealth’ wishing to make brief visits;
in 1997 over 30 per cent of would-be visitors from Ghana
were refused, compared to 0.18 per cent from Australia. The
two factors combined to persuade most immigrants from
Pakistan that it was safer to stay, and send for their wives,
children and aged parents to join them. The attempt to keep
people out often has the effect of keeping them in; more
exactly, keeping some out keeps others in. The intense efforts
of the immigration service to refuse as many dependants as
possible by declining to be satisfied that they were ‘related as
claimed’ did not undo this effect, although it indeed caused a
great deal of misery and separated some families for good.
The EU Office of Statistics recently published its estimates
for 1999. It calculates that, but for net immigration, Germany,
Italy and Sweden would all have experienced a drop in popu-
lation in 1999. A UN report entitled Replacement Migration: a
Solution to Declining and Aging Populations was published at the same
time. It calculates that in Britain, Germany, Italy and France,
the ratio of people of working age to those retired is now just
above 4:1, but that, on present trends, it will be only 2:1 by
2050. One author of the report, J. A. Grinblat, observes that
the social security systems of these countries were founded
on the assumption of a 5:1 ratio. This decline, the report
argues, will make it progressively harder, and eventually
impossible, to provide the benefits and care needed by the
elderly. It sees as the only feasible solution a great increase in
65 Grounds of Refusal