209 false consensus effect
false consensus effect
DESCRIPTION
Thetendency forindividualsor groupsofindividualsto overestimatetheextent
that others are in agreement with their views.
KEY INSIGHTS
The false consensus effect is a cognitive bias among individuals or groups
of individuals that leads them to believe that the collective view of others
is more likely to reflect their view than is actually the case. In other
words, it is the tendency to see oneself as more representative of others
than one really is. While there may be multiple causes for the effect’s
prevalence among both individuals and groups in the general population,
one explanation for the effect’s prevalence among groups is the tendency
for some groups to be in consensus on matters of group opinion but
where the opinion is unchallenged to a large extent by others outside
the group.
KEY WORDS Cognitive bias, consensus
IMPLICATIONS
In the conduct of marketing research, management, and strategy devel-
opment, marketers should be aware of the general human tendency for
an individual to believe their views are shared by others to a greater
extent than they really are, since the existence of the false consensus
effect can lead to biased perceptions and inaccurate conclusions by the
marketer. For example, the effect may lead a group of marketing strat-
egists in a firm to believe that certain views regarding consumers are
also shared to a great extent by competing firms in the industry when
it may not be the case at all, thereby leading the firm to fail to predict
certain competitive actions.
APPLICATION AREAS AND FURTHER READINGS
Sponsorship Marketing
Bennett, Roger (1999). ‘Sports Sponsorship, Spectator Recall and False Consensus,’
European Journal of Marketing, 33(3–4), 291–312.
Marketing Research
Sherman, S. J., Presson, C. C., Chassin, L., Corty, E., and Olshavsky, P. (1983).
‘The False Consensus Effect in Estimates of Smoking Prevalence: Underlying
Mechanisms,’ Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 9, 197–207.
Moore, M., and Urbany, J. (1994). ‘Blinders, Fuzzy Lenses, and the Wrong Shoes,’
Marketing Letters, 5(3), 247–258.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Fields, James M., and Schuman, Howard (1976–7). ‘Public Beliefs about the Beliefs
of the Public,’ Public Opinion Quarterly, 40, 427–448.
Ross, L., Greene, D., and House, P. (1977). ‘The False Consensus Effect: An Egocen-
tric Bias in Social Perception and Attribution Processes,’ Journal of Experimental
Social Psychology, 13, 279–301.
Marks, G., and Miller, N. (1987). ‘Ten Years of Research on the False Consen-
sus Effect: An Empirical and Theoretical Review,’ Psychological Bulletin, 102,
72–81.